***BREAKING NEWS** The new Deutsche Mark banknotes are here**Picture will follow tomorrow***

Oh oh...

"US, Israel Warships in Suez May Be Prelude to Faceoff with Iran"

[link to www.israelnationalnews.com]

"China Says No Major Changes in Exhange Rate"

[link to www.cnbc.com]

Germany´s exports are doing well:

BDI: Exportmotor ist wieder angesprungen
[link to de.news.yahoo.com]


Industrie verdoppelt Exportprognose für 2010
[link to de.news.yahoo.com]

The Three Terrors (Comedy):
[link to www.youtube.com]

when the new german president is elected this June 30, it will be decision time :

if Mr Gauck will be the lucky one ( and all signs are leading to this )

Merkel is defeated. She can't rule anymore:

the Bundesrat has lost the majority due to the North-Rhine Westphalia local voting ( majority SPD/The Greens ) so they can block all incoming laws.

the laws that pass the Bundesrat needto be signed by the president . Mr Gauck is the candiate for the SPD/Greens and he loudly said he wont be a signature automate unlike Mr. Wulff who is Merkels loyalistic candidate.

Merkel has to step back soon after gauck is president, and we need nation wide new votings. The FDP wont be in next time. They have ridiculed themselfes by letting the poorest shoulder the burden of the greek bailout package and have only 3% voters behind them. Only 48% of all germans think Merkel is a good chancelor.

Voices are grwoing louder - even on mainstream Media - that she should step down as soon as possible for making everything worse as it already was.


All decisions regarding Euro/DM will have to be made either shorty before that scenario ( read : the next 10 days ) - as long as Merkel (Christ Democrates ) and her coaliton parner FDP ( Liberal Democrats ) has powers to rule as she wishes..

or

the next government ( possibly SPD, social party and The greens leading )

has to make quick decisions.

However the "Sparpaket" that Merkel has declared to become a law most probably will never see the light of day. The Bundesrat will block it in its current form. It is a brutal "saving" on state money, namely the jobless, the poor, the parents and the old will have cuts to welfare,social projects and thus making the poor even more poor.

Merkel said Germany has to save on all fronts because basically we were bancrupt with the banksters and greek bailout packages the EU drove us into..

German people do not understand that she saves beginning by those that have next to nothing while not even discussing higher taxes for the rich ones.

This is the cornerstone that will be the governments fall.

A president Gauck and the SPD/Green Majority in the Bundesrat will easily block all these horrific and scandalous "Sparpakete" . Instead they will pressure for letting the richer ones pay for the crisis unlike Merkel and the FDP ..

See the DM-Return also in that light : We have a MAJOR governmental crisis here and unrest is growing in the people. Cities are broken, government only rules for the banksters and the managers but against those that have nothing and live from welfare. ( We have around 10% unemployment rate and an unknown percentage of "working poor" ) ..

The latest news is that the national health insurancy is broken and underfinanced. Every citizen shall pay a fixed extra sum per month . Even the poor, again.

IS THIS TRUE ???



Wer bestellt 14 Gelddruckmaschinen bei Ruhlamat?


[link to www.webdesign-luene.de]

If the DM is reintroduced now, it will be a major game-changer. I think it will have to be done eventually and there is no economic or political benefit delaying.

From my perspective, there are really no parties with plans that would release Germany´s potential. The current coalition has been less than ideal.

A coalition of the reds and greens, in my opinion, will be disastrous. Germany needs to attract capital and businesses. Now there would be a great chance to do so because conditions in other parts of Europe are getting much worse. Smart entrepreneurs in other countries will see they are on a sinking ship. Moving their business to Asia would be a major shift and very risky. Germany, on the contrary, is a safe and stable country, geographically near and much closer culturally. So, Germany could be an attractive destination for them. This would bring money and jobs to Germany. But if the plan is to raise taxes and "make the rich pay" then Germany will not be attractive at all.

Also, currencies are being debased and Germany could become what Switzerland was before: a safe haven for capital, but legal capital in this case. There is high demand for a stable currency and the DM could be just that. German industry and exports ensure demand for the currency and a plan to cut public spending would make Germany´s currency attractive. This would provide capital inflows and business for banks, lower interest rates for companies and so on. It would be very beneficial for Germany because it would create jobs and increase tax revenues.

The theory that banks created the crisis is not accurate. Banks certainly made dumb investments in the PIIGS. But this has nothing to do with the budget deficits, which were present before the bank problems even emerged. The government was running a budget deficit even when the economy was good! This means that the government simply spends too much:

This system is unsustainable.

But this has nothing to do with the banks, with capitalism or globalization.

The system has to become more efficient and also more competitive.

Targeting groups, whether rich or poor, is not ideal--and can actually become dangerous. Even if the rich are targets because they will leave the country and invest elsewhere. Even if you take all they have, the problem will not be solved--it will actaully get worse.

Besides, I don´t have the impression that taxes in Germany are low at all. Many people, also, don´t get any services for free in return. People have to pay for healthcare themselves, there is VAT, taxes on the house, taxes on the car, taxes even on the TV!, estate taxes... I mean: what do they do with all that money?? Something is clearly not working as it should.

What is necessary is to create new jobs in the private sector. This will result in fewer people needing welfare.

Attracting investments is one way. Reducing bureaucracy and making it easier to do business is another. I think the State could do a lot of things more efficiently--even thanks to new technology.

Another issue is the education system: too few people have access to higher education. This is a problem.

As Asia develops, huge markets for Germany´s goods open up--think of India, China. So, there are opportunities for Germany in the future (more so than for Greece or Spain, etc.). The emphasis should be on creating more people with advanced qualifications and an environment favorable to companies.

Otherwise, those with advanced skills will also leave.

The idea of taking rich people to the cleaners has been tried before in history and it has never turned out well. It is possible that this will happen, but it sure is not the optimal way to deal with the current situation and create good prospects for Germany´s future.

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk]

Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels
We already know that the eurozone money markets seized up violently in early May as incipient bank runs spread from Greece to Portugal and Spain, threatening the first big sovereign default of our era. Jean-ClaudeTrichet, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), talked days later of "the most difficult situation since the Second World War, and perhaps the First".

Fitch Ratings said it will take "hundreds of billions" of bond purchases by the ECB to stop the crisis escalating. Since Bundesbank chief Axel Weber has already deemed the first tranche of purchases to be a "threat to stability", it is a safe bet that Germany will fight tooth and nail to prevent such a move to full-blown quantitative easing. The blood-letting along the fault-line between Teutonic and Latin Europe will go on, as the crisis festers.

The fact is that if the Euro fails, it will destroy Germany. It is well known that the most levered banks in the world are German. Commerzbank has 150x leverage. A drop of only 1% of its assets would bankrupt it. Deutche Bank has 75x leverage. By this measure, German banks make Wall Street look honest, lol.

German banks have made way too many bad bets on the rest of Europe, in pursuit of profits. If the Euro ends and austerity hits the rest of Europe, debt service to German banks will be impossible. And thus, the German banking system will collapse. A collapsed banking system means the end of Germany as we now know it.

My dear italian friend, it is even less likely that things will change magically here in Russia than they will change in Italy. You moved away from the country, but you don't know a solution for the country itself. Systems are broken by people that want to break the system, not magically because everybody started to be responsible one day.

Also you should keep in mind that people are not perfect. There have always been fools, greedy and silly investors, crooks and corrupted officials; a good system is the one that balances off the deviations from the desireble state of things and stabilizes itself, not the one that can only exist in an ideal society of perfect people. We can't let people suffer just because they are imperfect and make mistakes, especially if one group of people makes mistakes while others suffer. Of course people should take responcibility for their actions, but people are not wolves, we must help each other, and the society must help individuals, it can't work out another way. Similarly, there's no way we can accept a collective responsibility for the crimes of individuals; we should rather fix the things and punish the individuals.

The aspect of looking into the future is importaint, but this can;t be used to justify tolerance to thieves who had stolen the public property, even if they pay taxes. It's a very strange decision to accept the fact that your property was stolen and keep living side by side with the thief just because he gives you accidently a penny or two from his profits made with the assets stolen form you. Besides that, the people who control the money, control the system. The system is hopelessly corrupt, and they are a part of it, and they don't want to it change. Looking into the future also means fighting for the future. It's exactly what's going to happen.

It looks like you sympathize with Mr. Browder and you believe that his property should be returned to him. But for some reasons you don't sympathize with the nation that lost its property to Mr Browder earlier. Either you should suggest that Mr. Browder must be responsible for the political risks he assumed and that he must look into the future instead of looking into the past when he was rich and happy, or you must accept my point of view that there's no substantial diference between Mr. Browder and those people who now own his property, and that this property must be anyway returned to the people where it was origianly stollen from.

I agree that the system must be improved and that its should be oriented on created new value if possible, but I see no way of doing so peacefuly without attacking the interests of certain people who prosper from having the corrupt system.

As for foreign direct ionvestments, my point of view is that they are harmful in most cases. It's a very long discussion, but briefly, I believe that FDI is mostly trading glass for gold as they did it with the Indians in the past; even in a perfect situation FDI would result in slowering the long-term development of a country, squeezing their current competitve advantages instead. China is a remarkable exception form the rule; they managed to prosper because they followed their own policy and did lots of regulations and planning, using the FDI to devlop what they wanted to develop; if they tried to maximize profits and follow the western directives, they would be on their knees by now. Also, it was not the money hat brought them success, but western technologies that they sucked out of the West. Silly are those people who believe that all those exports are essential for China; with all the technologies and facilities they have now, they will easily break out of the world economy framework dictated by the west and will dictate the rules themselves.

As for the Marxist theory of value (which is I agree not perfect), in your example you miss something. If the two companies produce identical goods at identical prices, but the second company posesses less machinery and bares less maintainance costs while also HIRING FEWER PEOPLE, this means that the second company must have a more advanced machinery or better trained workers. In either case, you must account for the previously invested labor for the production of a more efficient machine, for the research needed to invent the more efficient machine, for training the workers to improve their skills. The typewriters example is a stronger agrument against the Marxist theory of value, but mcuh differs from your perception. Obviously the typewriter factory is worthless because nobody needs typewriters, but it's when you estimate how much profit you can make with the asset, it's a point of view of a capitalist. Of you look the other way, there was a lot of effort spent building teh factory, the machinery, training the workers. The labor was invested, the people got paid for and spent the money, gaing their share of the national consumption. But their labor doesn't give an adequate surplus to the public wealth. The labor was misallocated, and the society suffers losses from that - in the capitalist case, a particular person or a group of them suffers losses, these are the people who can't sell the asset and can't make profits with it. You say the asset has no value, but it HAS value; its PRICE is zero, but a portion of the national economic capacity was spent to create this asset, and this portion of the capacity is its value. You can't sell many things, they are hopelessly worthless - many of the railroads, fundamental research laboratories, churches, just look around you - there are a lot of things that are a part of our everyday life, but you can't make any money with them. With your monetaristic approach, they have no value if you can't make money with them. But they do. The value is the portion of the capacity of the society spend to create those assets.



Dorogoi russkii drug :)

I had to get my mind around Marxist economics, a subject new to me--and altogether rather different from Capitalist economics. It took me a while and I still am far from confident I understand the details.

But the exercise is enlightening nonetheless, because it highlights how the same issues can be examined from different perspectives and interpreted in very different ways.

Both systems appear to have some drawbacks but, in my opinion, we end up with the worst system when we mix the two... :)

In the example of the obsolete typewriter factory, for example, the effort put into building the factory falls under the category of value in Marxist economics (correct me if I am wrong). But in the Capitalist system it´s simply a cost--and, being money already spent, it is a sunk cost. That is: it´s irrelevant to future decisions. Only the consequences of what is to be decided are taken into account.

In the other examples, such as research laboratories ro railroads, actually they do have value even in the Capitalist system. Even churches and monuments can have value. The churches are a good example. The Vatican or a diocesis builds a church in the same way McDonald´s builds a restaurant. It´s their business. People go, listen to the mass, buy the candle, leave an offer: money comes in. People donate money because it makes them feel good. For the city, beautiful churches attract tourists... tourists go to see them because it makes them feel good (the same way they go to movies, for example...) So, there is an economic value.

You correctly point out that a result is that people can lose their job in the process of innovation and competition. Capitalism is far from perfect but it does take this aspect into account. In fact, the idea is of an economy that is dynamic and continuously renovating itself.

The problem of people losing their jobs is addressed by creating new jobs! The objective is to spend as few of society´s resources on a single task as possible--so that those resources can be immediately readdressed to produce something else.

Admittedly, the theory is imperfect and a bit extremist. People cannot always readapt so quickly and some people do fall through the craks in the system. So, there must be a social safety net. But it has to save those who fall, not encourage people to do nothing. And it is also necessary for the government to create the tool that allow people to develop their potential.

Governments are actually doing a very poor job. One reason is that politicians need to get reelected. Giving out wins more votes. Since they can borrow and indebt the country as they please, it is easier to do so.

Also, it is complicated to make the country efficient and competitive and competence and also consensus on what to do are hard to achieve. So, in the West, we end up making a huge mess of Capitalism, Socialism, Irresponsibility and a touch of Madness. We end up with a Capitalism that is too Socialist and a Socialism that is too Capitalistic. And by the time we figure it out, we are already deep in debt!

China still has a lot to do, but it has developed so rapidly by balancing Capitalism, Socialism and Dirigism in an effective way. I don´t think they could have done much more much quicker. So, the mix can work if there is a plan--and people who know what they are doing.

When you say: look, China is going to rule the world, I agree. But I don´t mind at all. They are doing things smarter than us and that is a positive thing. The fact that hundreds of millions of people are rising out of poverty thanks to their work is a good thing. Tomorrow, they will also be a market for our products, if we start managing our economies and societies more sensibly.

By the way, I am thinking of moving to Asia because there are better opportunities there and it would also be interesting.

I just finished reading a book on investments and there was mention of the privatizations in Russia. It said that part of the companies´ stock were given out to workers and part to ordinary citizens, in the form of vouchers, just as you said. These stocks and vouchers were given out at a fraction of their real worth. So, basically, the state gave out real value to people: they bought at a nominal price shares in companies that were actually sitting on very valuable assets.

The privatization of apartments followed a similar path, it was said.

I think it was not the most efficient way to procede. But they were given out from the Russian State to the Russian people.

In the case of Browder, I really have no reason to take sides with him at all. Only, the passages that I perceive are these (again, correct me if I am wrong):

Russian State gives to Russian citizens
Russian citizens SELL to Browder/Hermitage
Some people illegally expropriated from Browder/Hermitage

In the end:

Browder/Hermitage has paid for what it got. Those who really benefit are the few who illegally expropriated Browder/Hermitage. There is no benefit to the Russian State, nor the Russian citizens.

An expropriation could theoretically be done and even be justifiable if, as you point out, the initial giveaway was wrong, by reversing the transactions.

There would be many other ways for the State to recover what it should not have given out. But it could do so legally.

This way, some benefited without being entitled. The State and citizens suffer a double loss. First when the assets were given out at a low price. And then because incidents like this make it more difficult to develop new value in the future. In my view, this is not at all in Russia´s best interest.

On Italy and Russia: I think the probabilities are much more in favor of Russia. :) People are always more optimistic about what they know less, so this may explain our different expectations.

In the past, I had mentioned cooperation of Russian aircraft manufacturers with Western counterparts. I have read/heard that cooperation on this is actually happening already, I believe with Airbus. (I would trust Tupolev more than Airbus... but that´s just me! :) )

Regards

By reverting to the DM the problem would become a lot easier to manage, imo.

The euro-denominated public debt would dramatically shrink in value. So, Germany would have an immediate benefit.

Germany could also withdraw its deposits from the ECB. That is extra money.

The DM would become a safe haven currency and would attract an inflow of funds. These would also improve the capitalization of banks.

As the euro depreciates, the weaker countries would see a pick up in economic activity. Exports would increase, imports decrease, more would be produce at home. So jobs would be created and tax revenues would start flowing again. This would improve the value of their government bonds.

Given all this time, it is possible that banks have also taken measures to protect themselves.

A debt restructure would not mean a total loss.

Having control of its currency, Germany could also intervene in the banks much more freely. It could prop the banking system up by taking over the equity. This would be a better way than lending money, imo. In Sweden this approach has worked and it has allowed the government to recoup its money.

With a combination of these measures, I think it should be possible to prevent a system collapse.

no ck. We buy stuff from LA but it was mainly pleasure. Im im PM all in. Some RE and Swiss Fr.

All curr will Surfer Next Years.

Im now in Puerto Rico for a Week.

Let's Pray and Hope nuke Terror on june 21-23 will Be postponed.

Pm will go to the Moon next weeks and Life will Change im afraid.

Love to all. The Swiss friend. C u soon.

This looks like ot be true.

Tha first Article of theis theme appears in a small east german newspaper in the town where Ruhlamat sits in.

Soon the message spreads trough the net and soon the Story was removed from their Portal.

That was in Fall last year.

Now you know why it IS possible to reintroduce the DM. They have printed the new currency for more than a half year now.

Even if the Thread starter was a fake.

And what do you think from an strategical point of viev ?
It would be extreme dump if they don`t have an PLan B or C.

So get save, get gold and stock food.

They want to plsit the Euro into North and South

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk]

Great news, thanks!

They´re talking about September. Sooner would be better.
If people start to suspect this will happen, those countries will be susceptible to major capital outflows and possibly even bank runs... that would be suicidal!

And another interesting News

[link to www.telegraph.co.uk]

And now... finaly

Merkel threat Sarco to reintroduce the DM !!!

In Mainstream Media !!

[link to www.youtube.com]

Yes, that´s what she said :) That Merkel threatened to reintroduce the DM. That´s about it.

So the idea is really being discussed by the officials. I´m glad they are coming to terms with the fact that the euro makes no sense.

It´s obvious. But it´s not obvious that they admit it!
:)

Well.. i try it in my limited english :-)

Merkel threatens Sarco to reintroduce the DM if France will not support the german position on the G20 meeting.

But the news speaker tells the viewer in her next sentence that the consecuence out of such move will be the instant colapse of all Banks.

If someone can translate it better feel free to do so :-)

THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU.......but odd that she states it would collapse all banks??? Maybe it was so the german bank would have a run of people that wanted to cash in euro's?

DM reintroduced > Banks fail

It doesn´t work that way.

Maybe it is not so easy.

German People have saved up 4.7 Trillion €

This is what needs to be changed.

The dept is on the other side the saving of anybody.

So if the depts of the european countries are Haircutted on the other side there will be an haircut on the saving side to.

Or maybe it is an clue to keep the dept in € and the whole rest system in the new DM.

Who knows...

The current arrangement is certainly not going to work, imo. So, we must change approach. There are different ways to handle this problem. Since we are so far into it already, very radical measures are necessary. Even something that otherwise would be inconceivable.

---

German banks hold too much PIIGS debt. But Germany has a lot of outstanding debt of its own.

It might be possible to offset these against each other.

One objective could be to turn international credits into domestic credits. The Germa bank holding the G*k bond could be given the option to turn the G*k bond in to the German Government and convert it into a German bond.

And the Greek institution holding a German bond would end up with a Greek bond.

A Special Purpose Company could be created to centralize these in each country. Then it would be a matter of offsetting them.

This would improve the stability of German banks. It would weaken G*k banks.

But there are resons this would work and would also be fair.

- In the conversion, the parties could accept a manageable loss.

- G*e public debt has benefited G*k citizens. In extreme circumstances, it is fair that THEY pay for the benefits they got, more than others.

- G*e is going bankrupt anyway. Going a little more bankupt does not make any difference.

- G*e needs to devalue. So, this would help... :)

- G*k would have an incentive to come up with all measures that can help--including selling or leasing assets, islands, land... even the Parthenon. Disneyland would love to make it into a theme park, I am sure! :D Whatever they do, they need to fix the problem.

- This measure would save the solid part of Europe, which would then be in a position to help the weaker part by buying G*K products and services and invest there.

- Going bankrupt all together does not make anyone better off.

- Growing out of this debt is a pipe dream. So we need something real.

There are many things one can do. A milder version of this idea might become workeable.

They just spread the rumours about the new DM to release the savings into the market. People buying all kind of stuff to get their €uros out of the bank.

I think it´s unlikely that there is such a plan. Think of this:

Germans would wait for the DM instead of spending or investing. Foreigners would send money abroad, thus worsening domestic problems.

In fact, I think it would be necessary to do the conversion overnight, without warning. The more people wait for this to happen, the sooner they need to decide because doubts and expectations influence decisions--making the situation worse.

Currencies fluctuate on their own, normally. So, in most cases, there is no need to direct an adjustment. Makets do that freely.

In the case of the euro, the exchange rates have been locked and can´t move. Since economies within the eurozone are in very different conditions now, the fixed exchange rate is making economic problems worse. This is the reason something has to be done.

China has pegged its currency to the dollar. Technically, to a basket of currency, I think. Practically, it´s been following the dollar. China has done so smartly (unlike us) so it is in control of the situation.

China will come out of this mess stronger than everyone. I think we´re witnessing the demise of the West.