WHAT IS HAPPENING AT WHITE ISLAND VOLCANO??? New Zealand/Kermadec & South Pacific QUAKE/VOLCANO WATCH

New Zealand Earthquakes: locations, depths and tsunami

[link to keithwoodford.wordpress.com]

More detailed investigation of earthquake-related documents has now led me to write something further about earthquakes in New Zealand. (For earlier posts about the Christchurch earthquakes see [link to keithwoodford.wordpress.com] in the earthquake category.) I have found four GNS maps (www.gns.cri.nz) which, when brought together, seem fundamental to understanding the ‘big picture’. I have therefore reproduced and interpreted them in this post, using information gleaned from a range of sources.

The first map (above) shows the three major fault systems in New Zealand: the North Island System, the Marlborough System and the Alpine Fault. What is also highlighted in this picture is that the North Island System actually separates the main Indo-Australian Plate (in this diagram more simply called the Australian Plate) from a ‘rootless fragment’ of this same plate. This Indo-Australian fragment has detached and is now taking a ride on top of the Pacific Plate. The real surface boundary of the Indo-Australian Plate is the Hikurangi Trough (also called a trench) to the east, where the Pacific Plate is being pushed under. The main NZ tsunami risk comes from an undersea earthquake in this trough. The figures printed within this map of 38, 39, and 41 are the average annual movement in millimetres along these parts of the trough. Elsewhere, I have seen GNS data (reported in earlier posts) indicating that the Alpine Fault moves at a similar rate to this, but that the two segments of the Indo-Australian trench are moving relative to each other at only 5-10 mm per annum. This recognition that movement between the two Indo-Australian fragments might be less than previously thought has led to suggestions that the risk to Wellington might also be less than previously thought. Basically, the smaller annual movement leads to longer return intervals between big earthquakes. (However, the earthquakes that Wellington feels are not only those between the two parts of the Indo Australian Plate, as the Pacific Plate does reach under Wellington at a depth of 30-40km. More on Wellington later.)

[link to keithwoodford.files.wordpress.com]
map

[link to keithwoodford.files.wordpress.com]
map, large nz quakes
The picture above shows where the major shallow earthquakes have been in the last 160+ plus years. It is shallow earthquakes that do the most damage. There are two big swathes of the country where no big damaging earthquakes have occurred. One of these is all of the North Island to the east of the North Island faults. This is not unexpected, as it is generally an area of only moderate risk for shallow earthquakes (but not for volcanoes). The second is the area adjacent to (i.e. both west and east) of the Alpine Fault. This is not so reassuring, as it indicates that pressure is building up. (The Magnitude 7.1 Arthur’s Pass earthquake of 1929 was on the Poulter Fault which is one of several faults, this one relatively minor but others considerably larger, branching off the northern extremity of the Alpine Fault.) The earthquakes in Fiordland are associated with the Puysegur Trench where the Indo-Australian plate is subducting (diving beneath) the Pacific Plate.

The third map (above) shows all of the shallow earthquakes of more than Magnitude 3 over a ten year period. Most likely, this is up to the end of 2009, or perhaps even earlier, as the Magnitude 7.1 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake of 4 September 2010 is not shown. Essentially, this map confirms how we really are the Shakey Isles but with the shallow earthquakes largely along the faults, and overlapping on this map as a splodge of red.

This last map (above) provides key information of several things. First, it shows how in the North Island the Pacific Plate is descending beneath the main part of the Indo-Australian Plate. The increasing depth going from east to west across the North Island gives a strong indication of the slope at which the Pacific Plate is descending. The second point is how there have been no earthquakes at depth along the Alpine Fault. Once again, this is indicative of pressure building up. The two plates are in a stalemate, but the pressure is continually building, and with nowhere else to go the fault must eventually unzip. The eastern side including the peaks of the Main Divide will move south. The western side will move North.

So what does all of this mean? My own interpretations are multiple. The first is that the GNS data reinforces the notion that the Alpine Fault, which last unzipped in a major way in about 1717, is a major menace. The greatest risk, because of proximity to the Fault, is on the West Coast. (See earlier posts.)

My second interpretation is that the Hikurangi Trough provides our greatest risk for a tsunami. I would like to learn more about that. I know that the Gisborne earthquake of 6.8 in December 2007 was at 40km depth within this trough. However, although this earthquake did considerable damage to Gisborne, it was too deep and of insufficient magnitude to create a tsunami. Apparently, the risk of tsunami from the Hikurangi Trough is enhanced by the possibility of major sediment deposits, deposited by the sea currents, being shaken off the sides as a landslide. It seems that the risk of sediment landslides is strongest at the southern end of the Hikurangi Trough. This is of particular concern for those living along the Kaikoura Coast in the South Island. However, for anyone who lives in low-lying areas along the east coast of both islands, from East Cape in the north to Christchurch in the south, this Hikurangi Trough seems far too close for comfort.

I indicated earlier that I would say more about Wellington. Despite some indications that they have already had their big one (officially known as the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake of magnitude 8.2, the biggest recorded in New Zealand since European settlement), and that the return intervals are longer than previously thought, there is still great scope for massive earthquakes. There are also some low-lying parts of Wellington that are susceptible both to liquefaction and tsunami. Similarly, cities like Blenheim, Nelson, Hastings, Napier, Gisborne and Tauranga, together with many smaller towns, would all seem to have significant risk from tsunami. All we can do is plan and prepare, and then get on with living.

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hmmm...

look at the taupo seismo and volcano graphs

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

Does someone know if all 825 Kilometres of the Alpine Fault went in 1 massive earthquake. What would the magnitude be?

I calcualted to be between 8.3 - 8.7 magnitude

Can someone confirm by figures?

maybe one of these guys may be able to offer an opinion about this

[link to riktindall.wordpress.com]
[link to seabreeze.wordpress.com]
[link to www.canterburyquakelive.co.nz]

Those are good sites.

When GNS calculate the alpine fault earthquake that is due. They always say that a 400km segment of the alpine fault will cause an 8.0

But sometimes the entire length of the fault goes in 1 large earthquake. They never give a figure for that likelihood.

And the Hikurangi Subduction Zone can cause earthquakes of even large magnitude.

is the te maari (tongariro) crater smoking???

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

i have noticed these 'mushroom' type clouds sitting above a lot of our volcanoes lately..

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

i wonder why the 7am shot of ngauruhoe is missing...
(look at the shots either side of the missing one)
[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

3.0 11:16:04 Tue 30 Oct 2012 Depth: 0.2 km

3.0 10:24:53 Tue 30 Oct 2012 Depth: 263.7 km

4.1 08:34:42 Tue 30 Oct 2012 Depth: 24.9 km

3.4 07:21:25 Tue 30 Oct 2012 Depth: 105.6 km

3.4 04:39:07 Tue 30 Oct 2012 Depth: 323.3 km

3.9 23:33:43 Mon 29 Oct 2012 Depth: 359.2 km

3.0 23:33:12 Mon 29 Oct 2012 Depth: 100.2 km

3.5 20:34:22 Mon 29 Oct 2012 Depth: 9.9 km

3.4 11:04:04 Mon 29 Oct 2012 Depth: 97.0 km

27th october
[link to seabreeze.wordpress.com]

summary (reviewed in brackets)
mag1= 13 [1], mag2= 26 [2], mag3= 4 [0]
mag4= 1 [1], mag5= 0 [0], mag6= 0 [0]
total= 44 [4]
total energy released= 97.815 TTNT

28th october
[link to seabreeze.wordpress.com]

summary (reviewed in brackets)
mag1= 22 [4], mag2= 29 [8], mag3= 2 [1]
mag4= 1 [1], mag5= 0 [0], mag6= 0 [0]
total= 54 [14]
total energy released= 70.156 TTNT

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this is very sad

3.2 11:10:31 Wed 31 Oct 2012 Depth: 65.7 km

4.4 02:13:40 Wed 31 Oct 2012 Depth: 18.9 km

4.9 02:12:30 Wed 31 Oct 2012 Depth: 32.1 km

3.7 14:28:17 Tue 30 Oct 2012 Depth: 23.4 km

most unusual..

the 4.9 quake near te kaha is listed as a 5.2/5.3 everywhere else

never seen that before, normally its the other way round, our quakes are downgraded everywhere else, not upgraded

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

[link to geofon.gfz-potsdam.de]

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

[link to www.emsc-csem.org]

it certainly shows as 5.2/5.3 0n the data page:


2012-10-30 13:12:29.2 37.94 S 177.71 E 68 mb 5.2 M OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. NEIC
2012-10-30 13:12:28.2 37.53 S 177.75 E 70 mb 5.3 M OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. GSRC
2012-10-30 13:12:30.8 37.94 S 177.71 E 68 mb 5.2 M+ OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. INFO
2012-10-30 13:12:30.4 37.94 S 177.61 E 41 M 5.2 A OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. GFZ
2012-10-30 13:12:29.2 37.94 S 177.71 E 68 mb 5.2 M OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. NEIC
2012-10-30 13:12:28.2 37.53 S 177.75 E 70 mb 5.3 M OFF E. COAST OF N. ISLAND, N.Z. GSRC

hmmm...

i wonder why...

some weird clouds over mount taranaki today

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

activity still showing regularly on the rotorua and tarawera graphs

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

[link to www.geonet.org.nz]

things look to be picking up at kermadec again

[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Are we being censored on YouTube??

Published on Sep 30, 2012 by biggordy100
I seem to be being censored with my subscriptions on my YouTube channel??? What's going on maybe a false flag event?? I have always said " when the rats leave the ship, look overboard cause your about to sink" look out people!

Did you feel the quake out in tga Tauranga?
Woke me and my partner up at 2 in the morning. Initial indication on geonet showed as a 5.0 about 1 minute afterwards but then got downgraded.

Sulphur smell over Auckland 21/9/2012

Published on Sep 21, 2012 by biggordy100
Strong smell of sulphur in Auckland , could this be a pre curser to a quake? Or volcanic unrest??

hiya neighbour!

no, i was sound asleep

we dont seem to feel the quakes up here

often my dog lets me know, but i didnt hear her barking at 2am

wow, it woke you up! do you feel quite a few quakes where you are?

yeah, did you see my post above regarding the fact that it is listed as 5.2/5.3 on all the overseas quake sites?

never seen that happen before, if our quakes get listed overseas at all, they are almost always downgraded a lot

Split Of Moon Got By Others! Watch PLEASE

Published on Oct 23, 2012 by J7409
I recorded my film on Sunday Night between 9 and 10 pm EDT with my webcam. Vaughn 5001 recorded his on Saturday Night around 9:30 pm. He gave me premission to use his video. I do not know Vaughn 5001, but he put a link to my video to prove his point and i am useing his video to prove mine. I took my web Cam to be checked it is fine. You make your own mind up. Peace and Love J7409. And thank you Vaughn 5001 for letting me use your video.

Moon Splits Before My Eyes?

Published on Oct 22, 2012 by J7409
This looks like the Moon splits for a couple of seconds. Now i know this couldn't have happened. It only lasted a few seconds, BUT what did happen???? I OWN all video used to make this video. I took it with my With My Own Webcam.For YOUTUBE!! Please do not use without asking first. Thank You...J

First one i've felt in about 2 months, but often we feel quakes from matata, gisborne, te keha etc..
Anything that happens on our cost line is often felt here.
Most of my work mates felt it around Whakatane too.
Last quake that was felt here was the earthquake that happened in Taranaki a couple months back.

This morning though was getting edgy contemplating grabbing our gears and supplies because the earthquake keeped rolling for about 5 seconds , so was quite a hefty one.

do you live down at/near sea level?

Yep very much soo, Whakatane being very flat we are almost right at sea level and about 2.6km from the sea.

I remember the feeling well of wondering whether to stay or go...we lived about 150m from the beach at Papamoa. Have since moved but had a couple of scares while we lived there.

There are 331 felt reports for the Quake you felt so pretty strong to wake up so many.

sounds like you have a plan in place though, thats good

do you plan to head for your nearest hills if something happens?

dangerous volcano I think... scary

Hey T!


Wow..thats really interesting! Had missed seeing that.

Lots of activity here and there...I notice Tongariro is steaming away again after nearly tapering right off.