BREAKING: Massive Storm Brutus now moving to the East Coast

^^^ And some (half the populace) still think severe climate change is fuzzy math. And they are more worried about the oil co`s then the storms that can ruin their lives. Time to learn from others mistakes, adapt and roll with the punches. You can`t win a battle against nature.
A 21st century man does what he can...

1 mSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Heavy snowfall rates up to 1" per hour for WRN SD... S-CNTRL ND... FAR NWRN NEB [link to 1.usa.gov]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A severe thunderstorm is moving through the northern half of Cook County, Ill. including the Chicago area.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND...FAR NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 101811Z - 102215Z

SUMMARY...BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND AND
FAR NWRN NEB. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HR.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM SWRN CO NEWD INTO ERN SD/FAR WRN MN. TWO SURFACE LOWS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA...ONE CENTERED OVER SWRN CO AND
THE OTHER OVER E-CNTRL SD. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A BAND
ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS WRN SD. ALSO OF NOTE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE ONSET OF THIS BAND.

SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSE FROM CNTRL IA
NWWD INTO CNTRL SD. THIS TRAJECTORY FAVORS ADDITIONAL MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS
CNTRL NEB WITH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION LIKELY PHASING WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NWRN NM
NEWD INTO WRN NEB/. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF
THE SNOW BAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
MOVES EWD. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HOUR WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER.. 11/10/2012

28 mAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Ping pong ball-sized hail reported in Boling Brook, Ill.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY.

* LOCATION...THE EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET.

* CAUSE AND TIMING...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THIS TIME RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...10 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON WEST FACING SLOPES.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 GUSTING TO 50 MPH...CAUSING
BLOWING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

* IMPACT...TRAVEL WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS DUE TO HEAVY BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AND ICY...SNOW
COVERED ROADS. THIS INCLUDES MONARCH PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW.

AVOID TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...LISTEN TO
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHER
TIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...TAKE ALONG A WINTER SURVIVAL
KIT. IF YOU BECOME STRANDED IN A RURAL AREA...STAY WITH YOUR
VEHICLE UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. TO KEEP WARM IN YOUR VEHICLE...RUN
YOUR ENGINE 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR...AND MAKE SURE THE EXHAUST PIPE
IS CLEAR OF SNOW TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101953Z - 102200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DISCRETE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-23Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF
SEVERE HAIL/WIND ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
PROBABLE DURING THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF CYCLONES ALONG
A FRONTAL ZONE FROM E-CNTRL CO E/NEWD INTO NERN NEB. A DRYLINE
INTERSECTED THE FRONT NEAR GRI...EXTENDING S/SWWD INTO THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...INFERRED BY DEEPENING CU DEVELOPMENT W OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
LOBE OF ASCENT INVOF CO/NEB/KS BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION AROUND 22Z...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE HERE
WITH ACTIVITY RIDING ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL FIRE SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 00Z.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY 20-30 F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...AS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
EVEN WITH MODEST BUOYANCY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SWATHS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABLE. AS A PLUME OF
56-58 F SURFACE DEW POINTS IN S-CNTRL KS TO W-CNTRL OK IS DRAWN
NWD...A FEW TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO BOWING STRUCTURES/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WITH A PRIMARY
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/10/2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH CONTINUES
TO ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND THEN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAITI NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE MONA PASSAGE NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH THE SHEARLINE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SHEAR LINE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW DICTATING
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST COVERAGE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10/23Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 87 / 60 60 40 50
STT 82 82 82 82 / 60 60 40 40

Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Severe storms and a few tornadoes for ERN NEB... CNTRL KS [link to 1.usa.gov]


13 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Severe weather will move into the areas of central Kansas to eastern Nebraska in the next hour or two.

Severe Studios‏@severestudios

Severe storms and a few tornadoes for ERN NEB... CNTRL KS [link to 1.usa.gov]


13 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Severe weather will move into the areas of central Kansas to eastern Nebraska in the next hour or two.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101953Z - 102200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DISCRETE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-23Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF
SEVERE HAIL/WIND ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
PROBABLE DURING THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF CYCLONES ALONG
A FRONTAL ZONE FROM E-CNTRL CO E/NEWD INTO NERN NEB. A DRYLINE
INTERSECTED THE FRONT NEAR GRI...EXTENDING S/SWWD INTO THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...INFERRED BY DEEPENING CU DEVELOPMENT W OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
LOBE OF ASCENT INVOF CO/NEB/KS BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION AROUND 22Z...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE HERE
WITH ACTIVITY RIDING ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL FIRE SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 00Z.

AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY 20-30 F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...AS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
EVEN WITH MODEST BUOYANCY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SWATHS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABLE. AS A PLUME OF
56-58 F SURFACE DEW POINTS IN S-CNTRL KS TO W-CNTRL OK IS DRAWN
NWD...A FEW TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO BOWING STRUCTURES/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WITH A PRIMARY
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/10/2012


[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-MOOR E-OLDHAM-
DEAF SMITH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...DALHART...
STRATFORD...SPEARMAN...GRUVER...HARTLEY...CHANNIN G...DUMAS...
VEGA...HEREFORD
1249 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* EVENT...STRONG AND SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM TODAY...THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER.

* IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS
LAWN FURNITURE...TRASH CANS AND TRAMPOLINES MAY BE MOVED OR TOSSED.
IN ADDITION...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE MAY LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

1 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Hail, wind, perhaps a tornado for WRN OK... ERN TX PANHANDLE [link to 1.usa.gov]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102049Z - 102245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
OK/TX PORTION OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOULD
BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR RSL
S/SWWD TO MAF. CU HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED W OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR S TSTMS WILL INITIATE BY THE END OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AS GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVER THE DESERT SW.
STILL...LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST WEAKENING MLCIN
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS S OF THE KS/OK BORDER.

MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS FROM 20-30 F WILL LIMIT MLCAPE
TO AOB 1000 J/KG. BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. A TORNADO
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE SPREADS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
WEAKER/SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO FARTHER N...THIS
RISK SHOULD BE WEAK/BRIEF.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/10/2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
622 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

.PUBLIC ZONE UPDATE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. WITH THIS HAVE UPDATED CURRENT FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROF/STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...PROGGED TO REACH MS
RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY
MON. PW`S CLIMB TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SOME
DRY AIR NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...START TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WE COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE AL AND MS COAST. LATEST RADAR LOOPS ARE STARTING TO
INDICATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWFA AFTER 12Z MON. FOR
TODAY EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. BETTER WINDS VELOCITIES NEAR THE COAST WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL A LITTLE COOLER LATER IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NEAR OR
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT
DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OVERLAND. NEAR THE COAST PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS. DEWPTS CLIMB TO
THE MID 60S BY EARLY MON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER 00Z MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT
WHICH HAS BEEN ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. 0-1 KM MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
LOW...200-500 J/KG...AND LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. 0-1 KM HELICITIES WILL BE 150-225 M2/S2
NEAR 12Z MONDAY...BUT DURING A PERIOD OF VERY LOW INSTABILITY...THEN
DROPS TO 50-100 M2/S2 BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUES TO DROP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DRY MID LEVEL AIR EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS IS ALSO DURING A
PERIOD OF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND IS QUICKLY ELIMINATED LATER
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MONDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF MONDAY
EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN
THE MID SEVENTIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
RANGING TO UPPER SIXTIES FURTHER WEST. A DOME OF COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID THIRTIES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION TO AROUND FIFTY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE
LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SIXTIES...THEN LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE MID THIRTIES OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS TRENDING TO LOWER
TO MID FORTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
SOME OF THEM ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO.

THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AFFECTING PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THEREFORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THERE WAS NO CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST SINCE EVERYTHING
SEEMS TO BE IN ALIGNMENT WITH CURRENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WHICH WILL OCCUR WITH
STORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Yup.

6 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A front will erase the Eastern warmth by Tuesday, causing temps to drop 15-25 degrees in most areas.

54 sAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

The temperature in Springfield, Mo. is rapidly dropping. It was 66 at 10 a.m. CST and will be in the 40s by Noon.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SWRN AR...FAR SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111612Z - 111815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS MAY ACQUIRE
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS
WEAK...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A LOW-END RISK FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS...ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW PRX TO
50 S CRS AT 16Z...HAS INITIATED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. INTERPOLATED
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 2-3 KM AGL
/ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT/ SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINABILITY OF
SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HEATING IS BEING RETARDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THERE
IS CONCERN FOR A LOW-END TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK THAT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE BY MIDDAY.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 33329573 33969513 34419467 34459413 34319372 34229361
33689384 32109479 31369539 31229585 31279625 31569638
33329573

It's a little chilly here in Canada, but not too bad. Not getting the terrible weather you poor folks are getting in the States thank the Lord, will be praying for the people whom are suffering and affected.

Joshua Napper‏@CptJosh_Napper

@breakingweather West Springfield, MO [link to twitter.com]


3 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

@cptjosh_napper Thanks for the picture. That's the leading edge of several hours of chilly rain and the much cooler air.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN TX/SERN OK INTO AR AND
NRN/WRN LA...

...ERN TX/SERN OK INTO AR AND NRN/WRN LA...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT
ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A
LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE NNEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WI INTO CENTRAL MO...SERN OK AND
SWRN TX...PROGRESSES EWD/SEWD TO A LAKE HURON/CENTRAL KY/CENTRAL
MS/TX GULF COAST LINE BY 12/12Z.

AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM ERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER TX TO THE MID 50S OVER NRN MO
AND ERN IA. THE
ERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS HAS BEEN LIMITED BY
ANTICYCLONIC TRAJECTORIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
SURFACE RIDGE...AND THE MOIST AXIS IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY NARROW IN
WIDTH AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD WITH TIME.

12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AT FWD/SHV/LZK/SGF EXHIBITED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION ABOVE 800 MB THAT HAD LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL RECENTLY. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL STORMS ARE
NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN TX AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...STORMS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INDICATIONS OF INTENSIFICATION
/SEE MD 2117 FOR MORE DETAILS/.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT STRONGER
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL LINEAR
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP
LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS TO FORM. STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING COMMENCES AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS.

..WEISS/MOSIER.. 11/11/2012

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SWRN AR...FAR SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111612Z - 111815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS MAY ACQUIRE
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS
WEAK...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A LOW-END RISK FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS...ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW PRX TO
50 S CRS AT 16Z...HAS INITIATED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. INTERPOLATED
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 2-3 KM AGL
/ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT/ SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINABILITY OF
SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HEATING IS BEING RETARDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THERE
IS CONCERN FOR A LOW-END TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK THAT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE BY MIDDAY.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/11/2012

Last night's weather was crazy here in Northeastern Nebraska. Temp got to a high of 79 here & within a few hours dropped down to 27! Streets were flooding (debris visible this morning), started hailing, and for a moment there we thought there was a tornado because the wind was blowing so hard. Was at the bar & blew the door wide open, knocking things off of the walls and shelves. It poured for hours. We got more rain last night than we did all summer with the terrible heat wave/drought.

Shit's crazy. Earth changes. Pole shift. Climate change. Whatever the cause, people won't be able to deny that something's going on for much longer.

Temp is 26 right now. Looking like it's about to snow!

216. beell05:34 PM GMT em 11 de Novembro de 2012
Slightly backed (from the SE) gusty surface winds developing along the eastern edge of the axis of higher dewpoint temps. A plus for supercells.

It is likely that the lower dewpoint air to the east over LA will become entrained in the strong inflow along the front. Low 60°'s dewpoints over LA-compared to high 60° dp's over east TX. A negative for development.

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