BREAKING: Massive Storm Brutus now moving to the East Coast | |
LonghairKing User ID: 25021486 United States 11/10/2012 11:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A 21st century man does what he can... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27437614 Portugal 11/10/2012 01:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 1 mSevere Studios‏@severestudios Heavy snowfall rates up to 1" per hour for WRN SD... S-CNTRL ND... FAR NWRN NEB [link to 1.usa.gov] |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 27437614 Portugal 11/10/2012 01:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND...FAR NWRN NEB CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101811Z - 102215Z SUMMARY...BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND AND FAR NWRN NEB. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HR. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SWRN CO NEWD INTO ERN SD/FAR WRN MN. TWO SURFACE LOWS ARE LOCATED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA...ONE CENTERED OVER SWRN CO AND THE OTHER OVER E-CNTRL SD. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A BAND ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS WRN SD. ALSO OF NOTE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE ONSET OF THIS BAND. SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSE FROM CNTRL IA NWWD INTO CNTRL SD. THIS TRAJECTORY FAVORS ADDITIONAL MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL NEB WITH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION LIKELY PHASING WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NWRN NM NEWD INTO WRN NEB/. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW BAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES EWD. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HOUR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED. ..MOSIER.. 11/10/2012 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 02:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 03:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY. * LOCATION...THE EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET. * CAUSE AND TIMING...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THIS TIME RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...10 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON WEST FACING SLOPES. * WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 35 GUSTING TO 50 MPH...CAUSING BLOWING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. * IMPACT...TRAVEL WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS DUE TO HEAVY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AND ICY...SNOW COVERED ROADS. THIS INCLUDES MONARCH PASS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. AVOID TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...LISTEN TO THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST AND CONSIDER TRAVELING AT ANOTHER TIME OR BY ANOTHER ROUTE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE TIME OF THE WARNING...TAKE ALONG A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT. IF YOU BECOME STRANDED IN A RURAL AREA...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. TO KEEP WARM IN YOUR VEHICLE...RUN YOUR ENGINE 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR...AND MAKE SURE THE EXHAUST PIPE IS CLEAR OF SNOW TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. && $$ |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 03:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 101953Z - 102200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...DISCRETE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-23Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH PROBABLE DURING THE EVENING. DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF CYCLONES ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM E-CNTRL CO E/NEWD INTO NERN NEB. A DRYLINE INTERSECTED THE FRONT NEAR GRI...EXTENDING S/SWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...INFERRED BY DEEPENING CU DEVELOPMENT W OF THE DRYLINE. THIS LOBE OF ASCENT INVOF CO/NEB/KS BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION AROUND 22Z...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE HERE WITH ACTIVITY RIDING ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 00Z. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY 20-30 F SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...AS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. EVEN WITH MODEST BUOYANCY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SWATHS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABLE. AS A PLUME OF 56-58 F SURFACE DEW POINTS IN S-CNTRL KS TO W-CNTRL OK IS DRAWN NWD...A FEW TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO BOWING STRUCTURES/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WIND. ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/10/2012 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 03:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 356 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH CONTINUES TO ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAITI NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THE SHEARLINE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SHEAR LINE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS... SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW DICTATING THE LOCATION OF THE BEST COVERAGE EACH DAY. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10/23Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 76 87 75 87 / 60 60 40 50 STT 82 82 82 82 / 60 60 40 40 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 03:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Severe Studios‏@severestudios Severe storms and a few tornadoes for ERN NEB... CNTRL KS [link to 1.usa.gov] 13 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather Severe weather will move into the areas of central Kansas to eastern Nebraska in the next hour or two. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 03:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Severe Studios‏@severestudios Severe storms and a few tornadoes for ERN NEB... CNTRL KS [link to 1.usa.gov] 13 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather Severe weather will move into the areas of central Kansas to eastern Nebraska in the next hour or two. |
DoorBert (OP) User ID: 1495371 United States 11/10/2012 03:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 101953Z - 102200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...DISCRETE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-23Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH PROBABLE DURING THE EVENING. DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF CYCLONES ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM E-CNTRL CO E/NEWD INTO NERN NEB. A DRYLINE INTERSECTED THE FRONT NEAR GRI...EXTENDING S/SWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING IN THE HIGH PLAINS...INFERRED BY DEEPENING CU DEVELOPMENT W OF THE DRYLINE. THIS LOBE OF ASCENT INVOF CO/NEB/KS BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION AROUND 22Z...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE HERE WITH ACTIVITY RIDING ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 00Z. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS CHARACTERIZED BY 20-30 F SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...AS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. EVEN WITH MODEST BUOYANCY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SWATHS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABLE. AS A PLUME OF 56-58 F SURFACE DEW POINTS IN S-CNTRL KS TO W-CNTRL OK IS DRAWN NWD...A FEW TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO BOWING STRUCTURES/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WIND. ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/10/2012 [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 03:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-MOOR E-OLDHAM- DEAF SMITH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOISE CITY...KEYES...GUYMON...DALHART... STRATFORD...SPEARMAN...GRUVER...HARTLEY...CHANNIN G...DUMAS... VEGA...HEREFORD 1249 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... * EVENT...STRONG AND SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. * TIMING...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM TODAY...THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER. * IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE...TRASH CANS AND TRAMPOLINES MAY BE MOVED OR TOSSED. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE MAY LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. && $$ |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 03:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 1 minSevere Studios‏@severestudios Hail, wind, perhaps a tornado for WRN OK... ERN TX PANHANDLE [link to 1.usa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27464111 Portugal 11/10/2012 03:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 102049Z - 102245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE OK/TX PORTION OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR RSL S/SWWD TO MAF. CU HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED W OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR S TSTMS WILL INITIATE BY THE END OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE...AS GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVER THE DESERT SW. STILL...LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST WEAKENING MLCIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS S OF THE KS/OK BORDER. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS FROM 20-30 F WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE SPREADS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER/SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO FARTHER N...THIS RISK SHOULD BE WEAK/BRIEF. ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/10/2012 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 10:59 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 622 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012 .PUBLIC ZONE UPDATE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. WITH THIS HAVE UPDATED CURRENT FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. 32/EE && .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROF/STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...PROGGED TO REACH MS RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MON. PW`S CLIMB TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SOME DRY AIR NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...START TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE AL AND MS COAST. LATEST RADAR LOOPS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWFA AFTER 12Z MON. FOR TODAY EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BETTER WINDS VELOCITIES NEAR THE COAST WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL A LITTLE COOLER LATER IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY NEAR OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OVERLAND. NEAR THE COAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS. DEWPTS CLIMB TO THE MID 60S BY EARLY MON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER 00Z MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. 0-1 KM MLCAPES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LOW...200-500 J/KG...AND LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. 0-1 KM HELICITIES WILL BE 150-225 M2/S2 NEAR 12Z MONDAY...BUT DURING A PERIOD OF VERY LOW INSTABILITY...THEN DROPS TO 50-100 M2/S2 BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUES TO DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS IS ALSO DURING A PERIOD OF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND IS QUICKLY ELIMINATED LATER MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MONDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE MID SEVENTIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA RANGING TO UPPER SIXTIES FURTHER WEST. A DOME OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID THIRTIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION TO AROUND FIFTY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER SIXTIES...THEN LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MID THIRTIES OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS TRENDING TO LOWER TO MID FORTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 11:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1200 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2012 .UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOME OF THEM ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AFFECTING PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THEREFORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE WAS NO CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST SINCE EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE IN ALIGNMENT WITH CURRENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 11:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WHICH WILL OCCUR WITH STORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 11:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 11:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SWRN AR...FAR SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 111612Z - 111815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS MAY ACQUIRE TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS WEAK...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A LOW-END RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS...ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW PRX TO 50 S CRS AT 16Z...HAS INITIATED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. INTERPOLATED PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 2-3 KM AGL /ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT/ SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINABILITY OF SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING IS BEING RETARDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THERE IS CONCERN FOR A LOW-END TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE BY MIDDAY. ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/11/2012 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 33329573 33969513 34419467 34459413 34319372 34229361 33689384 32109479 31369539 31229585 31279625 31569638 33329573 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2595311 Canada 11/11/2012 11:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 11:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | @breakingweather West Springfield, MO [link to twitter.com] 3 minAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather @cptjosh_napper Thanks for the picture. That's the leading edge of several hours of chilly rain and the much cooler air. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 12:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN TX/SERN OK INTO AR AND NRN/WRN LA... ...ERN TX/SERN OK INTO AR AND NRN/WRN LA... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE NNEWD TOWARD JAMES BAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WI INTO CENTRAL MO...SERN OK AND SWRN TX...PROGRESSES EWD/SEWD TO A LAKE HURON/CENTRAL KY/CENTRAL MS/TX GULF COAST LINE BY 12/12Z. AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER TX TO THE MID 50S OVER NRN MO AND ERN IA. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS HAS BEEN LIMITED BY ANTICYCLONIC TRAJECTORIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SURFACE RIDGE...AND THE MOIST AXIS IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY NARROW IN WIDTH AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD WITH TIME. 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AT FWD/SHV/LZK/SGF EXHIBITED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 800 MB THAT HAD LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL RECENTLY. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL STORMS ARE NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN TX AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...STORMS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INDICATIONS OF INTENSIFICATION /SEE MD 2117 FOR MORE DETAILS/. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS TO FORM. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES AND THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS. ..WEISS/MOSIER.. 11/11/2012 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 12:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SWRN AR...FAR SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 111612Z - 111815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS MAY ACQUIRE TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS WEAK...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A LOW-END RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS...ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW PRX TO 50 S CRS AT 16Z...HAS INITIATED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. INTERPOLATED PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 2-3 KM AGL /ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT/ SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINABILITY OF SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING IS BEING RETARDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THERE IS CONCERN FOR A LOW-END TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE BY MIDDAY. ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/11/2012 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27235554 United States 11/11/2012 12:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Last night's weather was crazy here in Northeastern Nebraska. Temp got to a high of 79 here & within a few hours dropped down to 27! Streets were flooding (debris visible this morning), started hailing, and for a moment there we thought there was a tornado because the wind was blowing so hard. Was at the bar & blew the door wide open, knocking things off of the walls and shelves. It poured for hours. We got more rain last night than we did all summer with the terrible heat wave/drought. Shit's crazy. Earth changes. Pole shift. Climate change. Whatever the cause, people won't be able to deny that something's going on for much longer. Temp is 26 right now. Looking like it's about to snow! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 27519754 Portugal 11/11/2012 12:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 216. beell05:34 PM GMT em 11 de Novembro de 2012 Slightly backed (from the SE) gusty surface winds developing along the eastern edge of the axis of higher dewpoint temps. A plus for supercells. It is likely that the lower dewpoint air to the east over LA will become entrained in the strong inflow along the front. Low 60°'s dewpoints over LA-compared to high 60° dp's over east TX. A negative for development. [link to i243.photobucket.com] |
1 | Winter Storm Brutus | 11/08/12 |
2 | Winter Storm Brutus has dropped 6" of snow in Butte, MT in just 5 hours!!! | 11/09/12 |
Related Topics: Breaking News (Mainstream Media) - Weather (Science) |