Northwest, N. Calif., Braces For More Rain and Snow!!!

NWSBayArea‏@NWSBayArea

12 hour rainfall total from #Venado -- 2.00" #bayarearain

ABC7 News‏@abc7newsBayArea

UPDATE: The National Weather Service has cancelled the Wind Advisory for the Bay Area. #BayAreaRain

Here in the northeast Sandy was less than an inch of rain.

But freaky wind, maybe not quite even 75mph sustained, but some huge gusts like 200mph brought down thick trees (I had a pine with a 2 foot diameter trunk break in the middle) and power poles.

And terrible flooding at the coast.

I have been watching models for the past week or so in disbelief as both the GFS and ECMWF have both been consistently predicting a very wet period for the West Coast. Perhaps this disbelief is the reason I am writing this blog so close to the beginning of the wet period.

It has been quite some time since the West Coast has seen rain like what is expected for the next several days, so let's break down what is to be expected.

The first storm will slam into the coast Wednesday, lasting into Thursday. This storm will likely be the weakest in the series, which is a testament to how intense these storms will be. This is because nearly 2 inches of rain is possible in the wettest areas in Northern California, as noted in the precipitation forecast for Wednesday through Thursday morning.
The good people at the NWS have also posted various watches and warnings mostly in California in anticipation of this precipitation. Wind Advisories are posted for parts of the Northern California as southeast winds will gust to 40 mph. Winter Weather Advisories are also posted for the western slopes of the Sierra Nevadas, but snow levels will be a relatively high 6,000 feet. In fact, this will be a theme for this wet period as these storms will be rather warm in nature. So while the rain is certainly a blessing for dry areas of California that are in the brink a more serious drought (see below), it would have been great is some more of this precipitation would fall as snow. Not only would this help the water supply, it would also help the skiing industry in the Sierra Nevadas that has suffered greatly over the past 12 months.
The next storm to slam into the coast will arrive Thursday and last through much of Friday. This storm will be considerably wetter, as the first storm will do a great job in priming the atmosphere. The wettest areas (see below) could see over 7 inches of rain. This will be on top of the rain that has already arrived on Wednesday.



This is just the first two storms. Needless to say, the West Coast will be rather wet and wild through the first week of December. There are some interesting notes I want to bring to your attention.

First, if you look at the 5 day precipitation forecast from Wednesday through Sunday, you will see that there is a bulls eye of rain expected for Northern California. The storm track has consistently pointed directly at the California coast north of the San Francisco Bay Area. It is safe to say that if nearly 11 inches of rain fall on this area over the next 5 days, there will be some flooding issues for the mountainous areas of Northern California. The good news is that the streams in the area are fairly low at this time of year.



Second, one of the reasons I have been in disbelief at the amount of rain expected from this parade of storms is that a significant amount of subtropical moisture is needed. For these types of storms, the subtropical moisture can usually be seen on satellite as a thick line of clouds that extends from near Hawaii and is pointed directly at the West Coast. When this type of pattern sets up, California can receive days upon days of heavy rain. This is often called the "Pineapple Express", or more scientifically, the "Atmospheric River". If you are interested in watching this atmospheric river set up, watch the satellite on WunderMap.

Third, while the heavy rain from these storms is expected through the weekend, I still question slightly the actual location of the heavy rain. Certainly, the heaviest rain is likely in the hills of Northern California, but any southward movement of this deep moisture could bring the bulls eye closer to the San Francisco Bay Area. However, a more northward track would bring significantly less rainfall to San Francisco. This is only worth a mention at this point. [link to www.wunderground.com]

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Mini bow (wind threat) heading towards Placerville, CA: [link to radar.weather.gov] …No warning at the time of this tweet #CAwx

first the east coast... now the the west coast.... im stocked up on food and ready to go.... not looking forward to the internet and power going out

ABC7 News‏@abc7newsBayArea

The strongest part of the rain and wind has passed through the Bay Area but scattered showers continue in the North & East Bay. #BayAreaRain

PG&E‏@PGE4Me

#BayArea Outage Update (2 PM): North Bay – 40; #EastBay – 380; #SF – 30; Peninsula – 190; South Bay – 730 Bay Area Total – 1,370 #CAWx

PG&E‏@PGE4Me

#CentralCoast Outage Update (2 PM): Monterey County – 700; #SantaCruz County – 2,500; San Benito County – 190; Central Coast Total – 3,390

Darren Peck‏@WeatherAnchor

Rain coming to an end right on schedule with just over half an inch in most Sac gauges. Friday a.m. is the next soaker. Bigger than today.

Who's Larry Storm? Sounds like a good weatherman name.

MAKE IT RAIN!!!!

Weather Underground‏@wunderground

First West Coast storm has brought 1-2 inches of rain for many places in Northern California. Much more to come. [link to wxug.us]

Hey, Luis, the Weather Channel just said that Mt. Shasta is going to get 12 to 16 feet of snow!

Nice. Shasta covered n snow is awesome! Great views of it from the train as you go by. The Union Pacific Railroad (which Amtrak's Coast Starlight uses) passes through Dunsmuir and then up through Mount Shasta City (pop. 2,500) with the mountain off the east. Mount Shasta so dominates the landscape to the east, that you can see it for 2 hours from the train (between Dunsmuir, CA and Klamath Falls, OR).

Who is LARRY STORM? lol

I wondered that also. Maybe Luis is Larry.

** Btw- Luis you are doing a great job of keeping us informed.

Stay safe folks.

Sacramento Bee:

Atmospheric rivers form very differently from hurricanes, but the rainfall intensity can cause damage on the same scale.

"There is potential for one of the longer-lived atmospheric river events that we've seen in the last 10 years or so," said Marty Ralph, an expert on the phenomenon at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

"These are the types of events that are responsible for the biggest flood damages on the West Coast," he said. "To me, that's the analogue to the hurricane problem."

[link to www.sacbee.com]

MAKE IT RAIN, BABY!....MAKE IT RAIN!

Waiting for Larry Storm's next weather update. :)

Been pretty dry since 1:45 this afternoon.

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

I'm not seeing much moisture west of CA. Certainly not enough to get the deluge expected over the next few days.

Very possible I'm wrong though.

starts up again thurs afternoon

He's probably checking in with his uncle Large Storm.

@RyanMaue Pineapple Express kicks up into another higher gear in 6-days. Typhoon Bopha lands in Philippines now w/GFS 00z. [link to pic.twitter.com]

@AlexJLamers The upper level low off the Pacific coast looks pretty neat on water vapor satellite this evening: [link to twitter.com (secure)]