989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb

well, i think it will hit more the states around great lakes, not so much the coast. But you can check the maps to your area

January 29-30 Potential Significant Severe Weather Event
By Andrew at 4:18 PM
January 29 Probability of Severe Weather


January 30 Severe Weather Outline
I'm continuing to observe the potential for a multi-day severe weather outbreak across much of the nation. Below is yesterday's discussion, which remains valid today.

This is the 500mb vorticity forecast for the evening of January 29th. We can see a strong storm system is present in the Southern Rockies at this timeframe, with high vorticity values being found across the mountains and Plains. The system does not appear to be tilting its highest vorticity values in any particular direction, meaning this system has a neutral tilt. This is good news for those who do not welcome severe weather, as negatively tilted systems (highest vorticity values pointing to the southeast) tend to allow enhanced severe weather chances due to cold air flowing aloft, where storms can build and strengthen faster. If you wanted to be really specific, this can be classified as a slightly positively tilted storm system, but I'm not really seeing a difference because of just how slight that positive tilt is.

This is the lower level wind speed forecast, again valid for the evening of January 29. These winds are forecasted for the 900mb level, not very high above the ground. We can see very strong winds at this level across the Midwest and South Plains into the Gulf Coast. Lower level winds reach as high as 74 knots in east Arkansas. This enhances my theory that Arkansas will be the center of the January 29th outbreak. For those unfamiliar with the implications of lower level winds, tornado potential is enhanced in areas of stronger lower level winds, as wind shear is increased and thunderstorms are encouraged to form.

The last image I will show you is something called surface-500mb shear, also known as Deep Layer Shear (DLS). Deep layer shear is looked at during severe weather potential timeframes to evaluate if there really is a tornado potential. The first ingredient for making a tornado (other than having a thunderstorm) is shear. If you don't have shear, you cannot have a solid tornado. However, the deep layer shear forecast calls for shearing above 100 knots in western Arkansas, a significant value for winter. If storm activity maintains an individual cellular formation and blossoms in the areas with high shearing, tornadoes could be strong and widespread.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

RyanMaueRyan Maue 26 m


.@kobebryant you could show up in Minneapolis Friday & drop a free throw to beat the temperature. brrrr [link to twitter.com]

Weather Underground‏@wunderground

@Marmalade402 It is down thru Jan 28. Here is the message. [link to 1.usa.gov]

1 hWeather Underground‏@wunderground

UPDATE: SPC has now upgraded the severe potential for Tuesday to MODERATE for parts of LA/MS/AR. See: [link to 1.usa.gov]

THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH UPPER 70S LIKELY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE FORM OF A QLCS/SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TUESDAY EVENING...RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY
INCREASING.


NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN TWO DAYS OF THE UPCOMING SEVERE THREAT...WE
CAN START LOOKING AT A FEW MORE DETAILS IN RELATION TO THE POSSIBLE
MODES OF CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...HODOGRAPHS...AND SEVERE PARAMETERS...THE VERY POWERFUL
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS STILL PRESENT. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS STILL EXISTS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 60 KNOTS ARE BEING ADVERTISED AS THE QLCS/SQUALL LINE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN THE 9 TO 12Z TIME FRAME
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE KNOW FROM PREVIOUS RESEARCH AND
STUDIES...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN ALL OUT SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE DERECHO TYPE SEVERE
EVENT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT SHEAR
VALUES THAT ARE AS HIGH AS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED.

BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMED SINCE 2005...0-1KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY OVER 40 KNOTS HAVE NOT PRODUCED
TORNADOES IN QLCS TYPE EVENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN OUR CWA. WITH
40-50 KNOTS OF 0-1KM BULK SHEAR BEING INDICATED SO FAR BY THE SUITE
OF GUIDANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...IT WOULD BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR FOR ANY ROTATION TO REALLY GET GOING. HOWEVER...IN A
SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...THAT 40-50 KNOTS WOULD BE SCREAMING
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SO THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES WHAT TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT WILL THE CWA BE UNDER BEFORE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
SQUALL LINE REACH WESTERN ALABAMA.

300MB ANALYSIS OF JET STRUCTURES HAVE REVEALED THAT THE MAIN JET
STREAK THAT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE VERY STEEP UPPER TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 150 KNOT 300MB JET STREAK IS STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
BEING A PLAYER IS STILL IN THE CARDS HOWEVER...AS THE ECMWF IS
HINTING AT A MORE SUBTLE JET MAX OF 115 KNOTS AT 300MB NEAR THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTLINE. WHERE THAT JET DEVELOPS COULD PLACE US
IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING
OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...NO DOUBT ABOUT IT WE WILL HAVE A VERY
JUICY AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. PWATS ARE LOOKING TO INCREASE TO AROUND
1.50 TO 1.60 AFTER 06Z ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF PW CLIMATOLOGY...SO NO PROBLEM THERE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR THAT SEEMS TO BE REALLY COMING FORWARD NOW WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE PRESENT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 65 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THESE NUMBERS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BREAK A
CAPPING INVERSION JUST ALOFT FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. THE CAP
DOES NOT BECOME BROKEN UNTIL THE MAJOR FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE. IF WE WERE ABLE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...WE COULD HAVE A
PROBLEM ON OUR HANDS WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
LINE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WATCHING THE
MESOSCALE CONDITIONS HOUR BY HOUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT...ESPECIALLY IF MODELS HAPPEN TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING INSTABILITIES.

SO...WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE PRIMARY
MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A SQUALL LINE/QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING
FROM 09 TO 12Z NORTHWEST AND WEST...AND ENDING FROM 21Z TO 23Z IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE SEVERE TIMING IS BASED OFF A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND THE CMC WITH THE GFS STILL BEING ABOUT 3-4 HOURS
QUICKER. EVEN THOUGH THE 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH...WE STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE PRESENCE OF QLCS MESOVORTICES THAT MAY FORM
ALONG THE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH REAR INFLOW JETS. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BASED ON THE
INSTABILITIES THAT ARE ABLE TO BE REALIZED. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
LEFT THE TORNADO MENTIONING IN THE HWO. GRADIENT WINDS ALONE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
TREES DOWN BY THEMSELVES BEFORE ANY STORMS ARRIVE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGHEST SFC-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WILL RANGE FROM 250 M^2/S^2
NEAR THE COAST TO 400 M^2/S^2 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. A SWEAT INDEX
AROUND 360 SUGGEST THAT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER
THE 500-300 MB LAPSE RATES ARE NOW DOWN TO 6.5 C/KM...MLCAPES DOWN
TO 250 J/KG SOUTHERN ZONES TO 450 J/KG NORTHERN ZONES...K INDICES
FROM 30 TO 35...AND LIFTED INDEX OF ONLY -2 SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL FAR
OUT WAY THE INSTABILITY (CAPE)...AND BRN INDICES NOW BELOW 8 CONFIRM
THIS. SO THIS IS NOT THE BALANCE BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR THAT WE
WOULD BE LOOKING FOR IF WE WERE EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES

MDT risk and population Density: [link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]

90. LargoFl07:45 PM GMT em 28 de Janeiro de 2013

for us gulf coast states, they are guessing at 60 mph straight line winds..its time to prepare now, if you have things in the yard etc that can blow around, today is probably the best time to take those things in..doesnt take much to break a window and let that 60 mph wind into your home..my guess is wind will be the big story in this system although miss and alabama already have some flooding problems way before this storm system comes..stay safe this week folks
[link to www.wunderground.com]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
133 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-29 1400-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PI CKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSO N-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKM AN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDE N...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOK EVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE ...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MUR FREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHE LBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT.. .SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
133 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND THIS WARMTH
WILL HELP PROVIDE FUEL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY
LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND REACH THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER

GA and SC heed your local warnings this mid week..............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WINDS
MAY GET CHANNELED TO THE GROUND IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THE SHOWERS MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PASSING FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING ON
WEDNESDAY.

$$

Dang let's hope this doesn't turn for the worst here in the south. The ground is still saturated will not take a lot of wind to bring trees up by their roots. Thanks for keeping us informed.

yes this will be a tuff storm! But there are people giving me bad karma points acusing me to be fearmongering!

Well they don't live in the tornado belt then. January usually produces weaker tornados but still can be life threatening.

Yes but THIS WILL NOT BE AN USUAL JANUARY STORM!!!

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

Nothing in the forecast in the Detroit area at all?
Weird.
Guess we will have to wait n see

hey luis
thanks for all the updates! any ideal what it will be like in buffalo, ny with this storm?

[link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]

you have here the Five-day predicted precipitation amounts for the period ending 7 am Saturday, February 2, 2013. Please confirm to your area... i will update everything i can! [link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

Just a rundown of what to expect tomorrow...

- Storms initiating along a line right around sunset
- Possibility of discrete cells forming ahead of the line
- Main threat: extremely damaging winds, given linear storm mode
- Storms within the line have the potential to produce brief spin-up tornadoes, while the discrete cells ahead of the line also have this possibility.
- Marginally severe hail likely to accompany the strongest of storms

Dewpoints in advance of these storms are likely to reach the mid-60s. Those are sufficient enough values for severe weather at any time of the year, so it's extremely impressive to see them in January.

The main limiting factor (and savior for tornado-haters) is expected to be instability. Higher values would allow for more intense and discrete cells and tornadoes. [link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Keeping my eye out

thanks for the heads up!