989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33202460 Portugal 01/28/2013 12:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33202460 Portugal 01/28/2013 12:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb January 29-30 Potential Significant Severe Weather Event By Andrew at 4:18 PM January 29 Probability of Severe Weather January 30 Severe Weather Outline I'm continuing to observe the potential for a multi-day severe weather outbreak across much of the nation. Below is yesterday's discussion, which remains valid today. This is the 500mb vorticity forecast for the evening of January 29th. We can see a strong storm system is present in the Southern Rockies at this timeframe, with high vorticity values being found across the mountains and Plains. The system does not appear to be tilting its highest vorticity values in any particular direction, meaning this system has a neutral tilt. This is good news for those who do not welcome severe weather, as negatively tilted systems (highest vorticity values pointing to the southeast) tend to allow enhanced severe weather chances due to cold air flowing aloft, where storms can build and strengthen faster. If you wanted to be really specific, this can be classified as a slightly positively tilted storm system, but I'm not really seeing a difference because of just how slight that positive tilt is. This is the lower level wind speed forecast, again valid for the evening of January 29. These winds are forecasted for the 900mb level, not very high above the ground. We can see very strong winds at this level across the Midwest and South Plains into the Gulf Coast. Lower level winds reach as high as 74 knots in east Arkansas. This enhances my theory that Arkansas will be the center of the January 29th outbreak. For those unfamiliar with the implications of lower level winds, tornado potential is enhanced in areas of stronger lower level winds, as wind shear is increased and thunderstorms are encouraged to form. The last image I will show you is something called surface-500mb shear, also known as Deep Layer Shear (DLS). Deep layer shear is looked at during severe weather potential timeframes to evaluate if there really is a tornado potential. The first ingredient for making a tornado (other than having a thunderstorm) is shear. If you don't have shear, you cannot have a solid tornado. However, the deep layer shear forecast calls for shearing above 100 knots in western Arkansas, a significant value for winter. If storm activity maintains an individual cellular formation and blossoms in the areas with high shearing, tornadoes could be strong and widespread. Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 01:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb RyanMaueRyan Maue 26 m .@kobebryant you could show up in Minneapolis Friday & drop a free throw to beat the temperature. brrrr [link to twitter.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 01:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Weather Underground‏@wunderground @Marmalade402 It is down thru Jan 28. Here is the message. [link to 1.usa.gov] 1 hWeather Underground‏@wunderground UPDATE: SPC has now upgraded the severe potential for Tuesday to MODERATE for parts of LA/MS/AR. See: [link to 1.usa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 02:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb SevereStudios‏@severestudios MODERATE RISK: First significant severe weather episode of the year tomorrow evening/night/overnight: [link to 1.usa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 02:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb COUNTIES. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF A QLCS/SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TUESDAY EVENING...RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING. NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN TWO DAYS OF THE UPCOMING SEVERE THREAT...WE CAN START LOOKING AT A FEW MORE DETAILS IN RELATION TO THE POSSIBLE MODES OF CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...HODOGRAPHS...AND SEVERE PARAMETERS...THE VERY POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS STILL PRESENT. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS STILL EXISTS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 60 KNOTS ARE BEING ADVERTISED AS THE QLCS/SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN THE 9 TO 12Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE KNOW FROM PREVIOUS RESEARCH AND STUDIES...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN ALL OUT SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE DERECHO TYPE SEVERE EVENT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT SHEAR VALUES THAT ARE AS HIGH AS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED. BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMED SINCE 2005...0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY OVER 40 KNOTS HAVE NOT PRODUCED TORNADOES IN QLCS TYPE EVENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN OUR CWA. WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-1KM BULK SHEAR BEING INDICATED SO FAR BY THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...IT WOULD BE TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR ANY ROTATION TO REALLY GET GOING. HOWEVER...IN A SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...THAT 40-50 KNOTS WOULD BE SCREAMING TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SO THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES WHAT TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WILL THE CWA BE UNDER BEFORE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE REACH WESTERN ALABAMA. 300MB ANALYSIS OF JET STRUCTURES HAVE REVEALED THAT THE MAIN JET STREAK THAT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE VERY STEEP UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 150 KNOT 300MB JET STREAK IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET BEING A PLAYER IS STILL IN THE CARDS HOWEVER...AS THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT A MORE SUBTLE JET MAX OF 115 KNOTS AT 300MB NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTLINE. WHERE THAT JET DEVELOPS COULD PLACE US IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...NO DOUBT ABOUT IT WE WILL HAVE A VERY JUICY AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. PWATS ARE LOOKING TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 TO 1.60 AFTER 06Z ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF PW CLIMATOLOGY...SO NO PROBLEM THERE. THE LIMITING FACTOR THAT SEEMS TO BE REALLY COMING FORWARD NOW WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE PRESENT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 65 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THESE NUMBERS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BREAK A CAPPING INVERSION JUST ALOFT FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. THE CAP DOES NOT BECOME BROKEN UNTIL THE MAJOR FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE. IF WE WERE ABLE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...WE COULD HAVE A PROBLEM ON OUR HANDS WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WATCHING THE MESOSCALE CONDITIONS HOUR BY HOUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT...ESPECIALLY IF MODELS HAPPEN TO BE UNDERESTIMATING INSTABILITIES. SO...WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A SQUALL LINE/QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING FROM 09 TO 12Z NORTHWEST AND WEST...AND ENDING FROM 21Z TO 23Z IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE SEVERE TIMING IS BASED OFF A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...NAM...AND THE CMC WITH THE GFS STILL BEING ABOUT 3-4 HOURS QUICKER. EVEN THOUGH THE 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE PRESENCE OF QLCS MESOVORTICES THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH REAR INFLOW JETS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BASED ON THE INSTABILITIES THAT ARE ABLE TO BE REALIZED. THEREFORE...WE HAVE LEFT THE TORNADO MENTIONING IN THE HWO. GRADIENT WINDS ALONE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING TREES DOWN BY THEMSELVES BEFORE ANY STORMS ARRIVE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 02:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb HIGHEST SFC-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WILL RANGE FROM 250 M^2/S^2 NEAR THE COAST TO 400 M^2/S^2 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. A SWEAT INDEX AROUND 360 SUGGEST THAT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THE 500-300 MB LAPSE RATES ARE NOW DOWN TO 6.5 C/KM...MLCAPES DOWN TO 250 J/KG SOUTHERN ZONES TO 450 J/KG NORTHERN ZONES...K INDICES FROM 30 TO 35...AND LIFTED INDEX OF ONLY -2 SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL FAR OUT WAY THE INSTABILITY (CAPE)...AND BRN INDICES NOW BELOW 8 CONFIRM THIS. SO THIS IS NOT THE BALANCE BETWEEN CAPE AND SHEAR THAT WE WOULD BE LOOKING FOR IF WE WERE EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 02:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb MDT risk and population Density: [link to icons-ak.wunderground.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 02:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb 90. LargoFl07:45 PM GMT em 28 de Janeiro de 2013 for us gulf coast states, they are guessing at 60 mph straight line winds..its time to prepare now, if you have things in the yard etc that can blow around, today is probably the best time to take those things in..doesnt take much to break a window and let that 60 mph wind into your home..my guess is wind will be the big story in this system although miss and alabama already have some flooding problems way before this storm system comes..stay safe this week folks [link to www.wunderground.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 02:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 133 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013 TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-29 1400- STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PI CKETT-BENTON- HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSO N-TROUSDALE- SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKM AN-LEWIS- WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE- CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE- GILES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD... GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDE N...ERIN... WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON... MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOK EVILLE... LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE ...HOHENWALD... FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MUR FREESBORO... WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHE LBYVILLE... TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT.. .SPENCER... WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI 133 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013 ...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT... A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND THIS WARMTH WILL HELP PROVIDE FUEL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND REACH THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. $$ SHAMBURGER |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 02:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THESE WINDS MAY GET CHANNELED TO THE GROUND IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. THE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PASSING FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY. $$ |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 907170 United States 01/28/2013 03:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Dang let's hope this doesn't turn for the worst here in the south. The ground is still saturated will not take a lot of wind to bring trees up by their roots. Thanks for keeping us informed. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb gee warnings all over the place now..............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... LIMITED TORNADO RISK. LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK. LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK. LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK. DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IF STORMS DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS CAUSING A LIMITED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM A LINE NEAR BRANSON TO AVA TO SALEM SOUTHEASTWARD. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE LATER TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WEST OF A LINE FROM JOPLIN TO WARSAW. && |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Dang let's hope this doesn't turn for the worst here in the south. The ground is still saturated will not take a lot of wind to bring trees up by their roots. Thanks for keeping us informed. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 907170 yes this will be a tuff storm! But there are people giving me bad karma points acusing me to be fearmongering! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 907170 United States 01/28/2013 03:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Dang let's hope this doesn't turn for the worst here in the south. The ground is still saturated will not take a lot of wind to bring trees up by their roots. Thanks for keeping us informed. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 907170 yes this will be a tuff storm! But there are people giving me bad karma points acusing me to be fearmongering! Well they don't live in the tornado belt then. January usually produces weaker tornados but still can be life threatening. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Dang let's hope this doesn't turn for the worst here in the south. The ground is still saturated will not take a lot of wind to bring trees up by their roots. Thanks for keeping us informed. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 907170 yes this will be a tuff storm! But there are people giving me bad karma points acusing me to be fearmongering! Well they don't live in the tornado belt then. January usually produces weaker tornados but still can be life threatening. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Arkansas warnings............DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD GAIN MOMENTUM TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH PRECIPITATION BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE FORECAST. OTHER THAN THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN...SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM INTO A LINE UPON ENTERING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL EXIT AS A LINE LATER AT NIGHT. ALONG THE LINE...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL TURN SOMEWHAT WITH HEIGHT...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE... SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLARENDON...TO CAMDEN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO [link to WEATHER.GOV] AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. $$ |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb JEDKINS...BE CAREFUL UP THERE...........DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... PATCHY FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE REGION LATE TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH IT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 29565393 United States 01/28/2013 03:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb wow GFS at 48 hours........... [link to weather.rap.ucar.edu] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 312 PM EST MON JAN 28 2013 ...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND MELTING SNOW IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT DUE TO FROZEN SOIL CONDITIONS AND MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADS IS ALSO EXPECTED. |
kisseyo User ID: 1261872 United States 01/28/2013 03:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb hey luis Quoting: kisseyo thanks for all the updates! any ideal what it will be like in buffalo, ny with this storm? you have here the Five-day predicted precipitation amounts for the period ending 7 am Saturday, February 2, 2013. Please confirm to your area... i will update everything i can! [link to www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 03:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb hey luis Quoting: kisseyo thanks for all the updates! any ideal what it will be like in buffalo, ny with this storm? The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the potential for a significant severe weather event to unfold on Tuesday across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The greatest risk extends from the Tenn./Ark./Miss. border southward to central Louisiana. The primary threats will be damaging winds, possibly widespread, and embedded tornadoes within bowing segments. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 04:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Northern Texas............THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A DRYLINE MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD INTERSTATE 35. AREAS EAST OF A SHERMAN...TO DALLAS...TO FAIRFIELD LINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR PRESENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 04:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Just a rundown of what to expect tomorrow... - Storms initiating along a line right around sunset - Possibility of discrete cells forming ahead of the line - Main threat: extremely damaging winds, given linear storm mode - Storms within the line have the potential to produce brief spin-up tornadoes, while the discrete cells ahead of the line also have this possibility. - Marginally severe hail likely to accompany the strongest of storms Dewpoints in advance of these storms are likely to reach the mid-60s. Those are sufficient enough values for severe weather at any time of the year, so it's extremely impressive to see them in January. The main limiting factor (and savior for tornado-haters) is expected to be instability. Higher values would allow for more intense and discrete cells and tornadoes. [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33209055 Portugal 01/28/2013 04:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL OK... ...NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK...SERN KS AND WRN MO... MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z IN CORRIDOR FROM NWRN TX THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND EVOLVING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT THE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. IN OK LAPSE RATES /THOUGH NOT LARGE/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL. ..DIAL.. 01/28/2013 |
Dr. Acula Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 52191 United States 01/28/2013 04:18 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |