989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb

This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.

Pass??? This will start tomorrow and last untill 31 January!

Some models, such as the HRW, are suggesting the line will actually intensify overnight as it progresses eastward. You can see this in the images below. 00Z January 30 (6:00 p.m. CDT January 29): [link to img442.imageshack.us] 06Z (12:00 a.m. CDT) January 30: [link to imageshack.us] 12Z (6:00 a.m. CDT) January 30: [link to img689.imageshack.us] This model may be downplaying the start of the squall line, just a note.

learn to read tard

I am NOT looking forward to this years weather!

I am we installed a storm shelter last year


[link to img689.imageshack.us] <---- That doesnt look pleasin to me eye


and its too close to me for burying my head in the sand

[link to i.imgur.com]

my local news just confirmed what you been saying Luisport.

10am (give or take) tomorrow that squall is coming through Kentucky

Karma pinned this

Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 01/28/2013 05:14 PM

Very interesting very interesting [link to www.weather.com]

Thank's a lot!!!

here come the toradoes!
warm air+cold air= f5's

ha. toradoes.TORNATO. tomatoes. bring em in...

72 in Kansas to 37 in Nebraska.... wow! [link to i.imwx.com]

so .. tornadoes in january?!

craaaaazzzzzzzzyyyyyyyyyyyy

Joe Bastardi&#8207;@BigJoeBastardi

Northern Missouri: Temps near 80 this afternoon, near 10 Thur am. Yikes!

i'm in southwest Indiana. we're under a flood watch, but nothing is being said at this time about wind. predictions are 3 inches of rain.

and you're a fucking idiot..

Tks so much for all the weather info! I'm not sure what all the info means when it comes to Ohio..I live in Bradford, Ohio, Northwest of Dayton Ohio..close to the Indiana border..Do you know if we will get a bad snow? Tks in advance and for keeping everyone on alert!

Please. I'm busy sun-tanning at the moment in Missouri...

however, Wednesday has a forecast high of 59. Wed. night, windchill of 16 dropping to 3 by Thursday night.

Jim Cantore&#8207;@JimCantore

Classic darkness by 3pm on a snowy New England Day MT @EBrill72: just took the picture @ Plymouth, New Hampshire [link to twitter.com] #NHwx

3 hJim Cantore&#8207;@JimCantore

This air ahead of pending outbreak RT @weatherchannel: 73º in Topeka, KS, 1º shy of tying ALL-TIME January high! [link to wxch.nl] #kswx

5 hJim Cantore&#8207;@JimCantore

This 45% hashed area is now MODERATE risk from SPC. Tornadoes are possible here: [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] … #severe #tornado

[link to hp6.wright-weather.com]

Here is the latest position of the jet stream over the US for today.........No surprise that things will go boom when this combined with the frontal passage begins moving into the mid-west tomorrow into the warm air flowing up from the Gulf......Sort of a "mini" taste of what may come down the road when we get to our normal Spring severe weather and tornado outbreaks. Not the type of set-up that we usually see in late January (with temps this warm flowing out of the Gulf). [link to squall.sfsu.edu]

We just had a record high day over 70 in Kansas:


Great post

I live in NW Indiana and can tell you what, it's got VERY cold during the course of the day. Really dropped fast.

Monday, January 28, 2013Nasty Day Tomorrow as Significant Severe Weather Threatens
By Andrew at 4:26 PM
**I am declaring a Storm Action Day tomorrow, meaning that most resources will be devoted to analyzing and tracking the severe weather situation.**

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe weather for tomorrow, January 29th, in the face of a possibly significant severe weather threat across the outlined area.

The NAM model is shown above with the forecast for 500mb vorticity values. The term 'vorticity' defines a spinning motion in the air. This spinning motion is synoptic, or on a large scale, so it is not a producer of tornadoes. High areas of vorticity indicate low pressure is in the area, and this is how we find low pressure systems. Looking at the forecast above, which is valid for the late evening hours of January 29th, shows our storm system pressing down into Texas and Oklahoma, depicted by the deep bending of the contour lines. Something I want you to look at is how these vorticity areas are directed. For instance, if you look closely, you will see that the base of the storm system in Texas has the highest vorticity areas tilting a little towards the Southeast (if you cannot see it, I marked it in). This is a classic example of the infamous negatively-tilted storm system. The infamy of it is that, in a negatively-tilted storm system, cold air aloft is encouraged to flow over the storm system. You weather enthusiasts know that thunderstorms rise and strengthen faster in cold air aloft, so negatively-tilted storms have a tendency to produce stronger thunderstorms than their positively-tilted storm counterparts (highest vorticity values point towards the southwest).

An analysis of the upper air for roughly the same timeframe as the image above reveals a very strained jet stream. You are viewing the forecasted wind speeds for the jet stream, which can also help us identify areas of high and low pressure. If we look near the Front Range of Colorado, we see an empty space pushing down. That is our low pressure system. Again, we are seeing higher wind speeds pointing towards the southeast than winds pointing to the southwest at the base of this empty space, affirming my suspicions of a negatively-tilted storm system. The winds on this forecast are projected to max out above 150 knots in central Texas in this forecast, and winds between 130 and 150 knots in the Central Plains. These unusually high wind values are more typical of spring! Nonetheless, the strength of these upper level winds shows that any storms that do develop will have a strong backing, at least in the jet stream.

Now we get into the forecasted simulated reflectivity, which is a forecast of what the radar could show in the future. This short range model is valid for the late morning hours of January 29th. Already, we can see some moderate rain and thunderstorms surfacing in eastern Oklahoma, and this is where I anticipate the show to start. Strong upper level winds will support eventual strengthening of these storms. However, in these late morning hours, I do not expect any big severe weather threat other than some gusty winds and hail. It's about what happens later in the day that concerns me.

We move now to the afternoon of January 29th. We now see that our storm system has blossomed, with heavy showers and elevated convection (thunderstorms that are stronger than normal, but not yet severe) ongoing in much of the eastern Plains into the Midwest. Some severe thunderstorms are ongoing in the leading edge of this squall line formation. Going by this graphic, I would expect the strongest storms to be in Arkansas and Missouri at this point, with weaker (but still heavy) storms in the Midwest.

This image, valid for the early morning hours of January 30th, shows just how big this severe weather event could be. Should this short range model's forecast verify, we could see storms stretching from border to border- Canada to Mexico (if you count the Gulf of Mexico as a border, or if you use latitudes from northwest Mexico)! Taking a look at this image, definite strengthening has occurred in this severe weather event, with very heavy convection now plaguing the Midwest and Great Lakes. We could even see some fairly intense convection happening over Michigan. Regardless, these storms could continue through the night, if the nocturnal lower level jet stream strengthens overnight. For those unfamiliar with the term, the lower level jet stream is just like the jet stream, except weaker and located lower in the atmosphere. It is nocturnal.

I think the maps above displayed my view on the situation well, and I see no need to make a map at this moment. I do suggest, however, that all those in the Plains and southern Midwest prepare for a rough ride tomorrow, especially in the evening/overnight hours.

For you storm chasers, here's my Chase Spot: Jonesboro, AR to Jackson, TN in the evening, Memphis, TN and east after dark.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]