989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb | |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 33219177 Portugal 01/28/2013 04:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902 Pass??? This will start tomorrow and last untill 31 January! Some models, such as the HRW, are suggesting the line will actually intensify overnight as it progresses eastward. You can see this in the images below. 00Z January 30 (6:00 p.m. CDT January 29): [link to img442.imageshack.us] 06Z (12:00 a.m. CDT) January 30: [link to imageshack.us] 12Z (6:00 a.m. CDT) January 30: [link to img689.imageshack.us] This model may be downplaying the start of the squall line, just a note. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33219177 Portugal 01/28/2013 04:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MELTING SNOW COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH (INDFFAIWX) FOR MORE DETAILS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 33219177 Portugal 01/28/2013 04:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb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|
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Dr. Acula Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 52191 United States 01/28/2013 04:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb I am NOT looking forward to this years weather! I am we installed a storm shelter last year [link to img689.imageshack.us] <---- That doesnt look pleasin to me eye and its too close to me for burying my head in the sand _______________________ |
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Dr. Acula Senior Forum Moderator User ID: 52191 United States 01/28/2013 05:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb my local news just confirmed what you been saying Luisport. 10am (give or take) tomorrow that squall is coming through Kentucky Karma pinned this Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 01/28/2013 05:14 PM _______________________ |
TheMacaroni User ID: 24516758 United States 01/28/2013 05:16 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Very interesting very interesting [link to www.weather.com] |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 33219177 Portugal 01/28/2013 05:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902 here come the toradoes! warm air+cold air= f5's 72 in Kansas to 37 in Nebraska.... wow! [link to i.imwx.com] |
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luhmuh User ID: 33135351 United States 01/28/2013 05:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb |
Uncle Alyosha User ID: 33223172 United States 01/28/2013 05:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi Quoting: Luisport Northern Missouri: Temps near 80 this afternoon, near 10 Thur am. Yikes! Please. I'm busy sun-tanning at the moment in Missouri... Best Wishes, Uncle Alyosha And here's a GLP-appropriate Bible verse (atheists may read, too): God chose what is foolish in the world to shame the wise, God chose what is weak in the world to shame the strong. - 1 Corinthians 1:27 |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 33219177 Portugal 01/28/2013 05:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore Classic darkness by 3pm on a snowy New England Day MT @EBrill72: just took the picture @ Plymouth, New Hampshire [link to twitter.com] #NHwx 3 hJim Cantore‏@JimCantore This air ahead of pending outbreak RT @weatherchannel: 73º in Topeka, KS, 1º shy of tying ALL-TIME January high! [link to wxch.nl] #kswx 5 hJim Cantore‏@JimCantore This 45% hashed area is now MODERATE risk from SPC. Tornadoes are possible here: [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] … #severe #tornado |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 33219177 Portugal 01/28/2013 05:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Monday, January 28, 2013Nasty Day Tomorrow as Significant Severe Weather Threatens By Andrew at 4:26 PM **I am declaring a Storm Action Day tomorrow, meaning that most resources will be devoted to analyzing and tracking the severe weather situation.** The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe weather for tomorrow, January 29th, in the face of a possibly significant severe weather threat across the outlined area. The NAM model is shown above with the forecast for 500mb vorticity values. The term 'vorticity' defines a spinning motion in the air. This spinning motion is synoptic, or on a large scale, so it is not a producer of tornadoes. High areas of vorticity indicate low pressure is in the area, and this is how we find low pressure systems. Looking at the forecast above, which is valid for the late evening hours of January 29th, shows our storm system pressing down into Texas and Oklahoma, depicted by the deep bending of the contour lines. Something I want you to look at is how these vorticity areas are directed. For instance, if you look closely, you will see that the base of the storm system in Texas has the highest vorticity areas tilting a little towards the Southeast (if you cannot see it, I marked it in). This is a classic example of the infamous negatively-tilted storm system. The infamy of it is that, in a negatively-tilted storm system, cold air aloft is encouraged to flow over the storm system. You weather enthusiasts know that thunderstorms rise and strengthen faster in cold air aloft, so negatively-tilted storms have a tendency to produce stronger thunderstorms than their positively-tilted storm counterparts (highest vorticity values point towards the southwest). An analysis of the upper air for roughly the same timeframe as the image above reveals a very strained jet stream. You are viewing the forecasted wind speeds for the jet stream, which can also help us identify areas of high and low pressure. If we look near the Front Range of Colorado, we see an empty space pushing down. That is our low pressure system. Again, we are seeing higher wind speeds pointing towards the southeast than winds pointing to the southwest at the base of this empty space, affirming my suspicions of a negatively-tilted storm system. The winds on this forecast are projected to max out above 150 knots in central Texas in this forecast, and winds between 130 and 150 knots in the Central Plains. These unusually high wind values are more typical of spring! Nonetheless, the strength of these upper level winds shows that any storms that do develop will have a strong backing, at least in the jet stream. Now we get into the forecasted simulated reflectivity, which is a forecast of what the radar could show in the future. This short range model is valid for the late morning hours of January 29th. Already, we can see some moderate rain and thunderstorms surfacing in eastern Oklahoma, and this is where I anticipate the show to start. Strong upper level winds will support eventual strengthening of these storms. However, in these late morning hours, I do not expect any big severe weather threat other than some gusty winds and hail. It's about what happens later in the day that concerns me. We move now to the afternoon of January 29th. We now see that our storm system has blossomed, with heavy showers and elevated convection (thunderstorms that are stronger than normal, but not yet severe) ongoing in much of the eastern Plains into the Midwest. Some severe thunderstorms are ongoing in the leading edge of this squall line formation. Going by this graphic, I would expect the strongest storms to be in Arkansas and Missouri at this point, with weaker (but still heavy) storms in the Midwest. This image, valid for the early morning hours of January 30th, shows just how big this severe weather event could be. Should this short range model's forecast verify, we could see storms stretching from border to border- Canada to Mexico (if you count the Gulf of Mexico as a border, or if you use latitudes from northwest Mexico)! Taking a look at this image, definite strengthening has occurred in this severe weather event, with very heavy convection now plaguing the Midwest and Great Lakes. We could even see some fairly intense convection happening over Michigan. Regardless, these storms could continue through the night, if the nocturnal lower level jet stream strengthens overnight. For those unfamiliar with the term, the lower level jet stream is just like the jet stream, except weaker and located lower in the atmosphere. It is nocturnal. I think the maps above displayed my view on the situation well, and I see no need to make a map at this moment. I do suggest, however, that all those in the Plains and southern Midwest prepare for a rough ride tomorrow, especially in the evening/overnight hours. For you storm chasers, here's my Chase Spot: Jonesboro, AR to Jackson, TN in the evening, Memphis, TN and east after dark. Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33219177 Portugal 01/28/2013 05:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index Tuesday, Jan. 29 Severe thunderstorms, possibly in a squall line, in north-central and east TX, east half OK, extreme southeast KS, south and central MO, central and south IL, AR, west and north LA, west KY, west TN, northwest MS. AL north night - 4 AL west-central, southwest night - 3 to 4 AR east - 4 AR central, west - 3 FL west panhandle night - 3 IL central, south - 3 KS southeast - 3 KY west - 3 KY central night - 3 LA north - 4 LA west-central, southwest - 3 LA night - 3 to 4 MO central, south - 3 MS northwest - 4 MS night - 4 OK central, east - 3 TN west, middle night - 4 TX central, east - 3 other areas - 1 or less Wednesday, Jan. 30 Severe thunderstorms, possibly in a squall line, in east KY, east half TN, south OH, south WV, central and south VA, NC, SC, GA, northeast, central and south AL, FL panhandle, extreme southeast MS and LA (morning). AL northeast, central, south - 3 FL panhandle - 3 GA - 3 KY east - 3 LA extreme southeast morning -3 MS extreme southeast morning - 3 NC - 3 OH south - 3 SC - 3 TN east half - 3 VA central, south - 3 WV south half - 3 other areas - 1 or less |