989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb

[link to weather.unisys.com]

Kansas City area is under a tornado watch and then a winter weather advisory for tonight.

This is concerning, and I think it may even be a surprise to the mets calling it. Forecast highs in Southern WI were 45-50 today, and it is currently 52, with more warming on the way. The warm air is pulling much further north than initially forecast, which means possibly even more instability. Just giving a firsthand account on the northern end of the system.

Model of precip radar

[link to models.weatherbell.com]

[link to www.weather.com]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291546Z - 291745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NERN
TX...SERN OK...AND WRN AR...WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F. ALTHOUGH HEATING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. ASIDE FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OKC TO
SPS...CONFLUENCE FLOW WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS AND BENEATH A 65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR.

WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATING
0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. FURTHER....THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING
SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WHILE INITIAL ATTEMPTS
AT NEW STORMS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO MARGINAL CAPPING...SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION IS REALIZED AND
TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWS ARE LIKELY.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35439671 35749581 35909504 35919444 35809351 35539323
35219324 34329331 33569361 33069405 32869529 33159721
33719771 34279775 34679745 35019723 35439671

ATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 6...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
932 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

KSC011-021-037-MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059 -077-085-097-105-
109-119-131-141-145-167-185-209-217-225-292000-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.A.0006.000000T0000Z-130129T2100Z/

TORNADO WATCH 6 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 22 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON CAMDEN HICKORY
MILLER MORGAN ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY BARTON CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
GREENE JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
POLK STONE VERNON
WEBSTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...APPLETON CITY...AURORA...
BAXTER SPRINGS...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...CAMDENTON...CARTHAGE ...
CASSVILLE...COLE CAMP...COLUMBUS...EL DORADO SPRINGS...ELDON...
FORT SCOTT...GALENA...GREENFIELD...HERMITAGE...JOPLIN.. .
KIMBERLING CITY...LAKE OZARK...LAMAR...LEBANON...MARSHFIELD...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...NIXA...OSAGE BEACH...
OSCEOLA...OZARK...PINEVILLE...PITTSBURG...REPUBLI C...
ROGERSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON...VERSAILLES AND WARSAW.

$$

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291546Z - 291745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NERN
TX...SERN OK...AND WRN AR...WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F. ALTHOUGH HEATING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. ASIDE FROM THE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OKC TO
SPS...CONFLUENCE FLOW WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS AND BENEATH A 65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR.

WIND PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH VWP AND PROFILER DATA INDICATING
0-1 SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. FURTHER....THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING
SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WHILE INITIAL ATTEMPTS
AT NEW STORMS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO MARGINAL CAPPING...SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION IS REALIZED AND
TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH BOWS ARE LIKELY.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1005 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

KSC037-291615-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130129T1615Z/
CRAWFORD KS-
1005 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 1015 AM CST...

AT 1000 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GIRARD...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

IN ADDITION...A 50 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED IN MCCUNE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARMA...BEULAH...CHICOPEE...CROWEBURG...ENGLEVALE. ..FARLINGTON...
FRANKLIN...FRONTENAC...GIRARD...LONE OAK...MULBERRY...PITTSBURG...
POLK...RINGO AND YALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3767 9477 3767 9466 3767 9462 3766 9462
3737 9462 3734 9492 3753 9493 3767 9481
3767 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 237DEG 47KT 3747 9479

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

KARDELL

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

WRF 4km simulated radar: [link to models.weatherbell.com] …piece of energy moves up front Wed morning thru SE into MidATL, final severe wx threat

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

1.33 km WRF seems to produce micro feature with rotation in SW Arkansas, supercell b4 linearizing. [link to models.weatherbell.com] …

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

00z WRF 5km ARW [link to models.weatherbell.com] … & NMM [link to models.weatherbell.com] … 48-hour animations of storm simulated radar.

A tornado watch will likely be issued soon for parts of NE Texas.

Discrete supercells will form ahead

of the cold front and main line of storms in Central Oklahoma. These storms will bring a high threat for tornadoes.


[link to www.facebook.com]

[link to hp6.wright-weather.com]

Kory Hartman‏@koryhartman

Over a foot of snow reported in Marshall County, SD (Hillhead) as of 9:54 am. #sdwx

35 minSevereStudios‏@severestudios

New Tornado Watch likely soon for NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR [link to 1.usa.gov]

Any idea how much they were forecast to get? Curious if it is more than initially thought?

I've mentioned this a bunch... so anyone who remembers my posts will be like "he's a fucking broken record" lol

but
Friday March 2nd 2012 Tornados devastated Eastern, Kentucky

The Tornado that hit the town of Salyersville about got me before it hit that town... it was a miracle from God that it turned at the last minute and spared us.

Sunday March 4th shortly after midnight it started snowing... we got 6 inches of snow...

So yeah it is a situation lol

but it has happened... and can happen

It was a nice day on that thursday and friday... much like it is now... warm and beautiful... but turned bitter cold... a lot of people here lost their homes and a lot of people lost power in the Tornados...

Then the freezing cold come in to add "insult to injury"

I kept power during the tornados... we were one of the few...

but the snow got our power... and we were out several days...

MODERATE RISK of severe weather expanded in size. Details shortly...

[link to twitter.com]

SevereStudios‏@severestudios

MAP: Here is the new MODERATE RISK area (greatest threat for severe weather in red) [link to twitpic.com]

Extended further north.....not surprising. I think at least one more adjustment will be made to that moderate risk zone before everything starts to tear loose.

SPC AC 291620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN TX/OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/29/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1627Z (10:27AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

here's that map



[link to twitpic.com]


EDIT: Luisport beat me to it :)

oh well twice as nice lol

Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 01/29/2013 11:38 AM

Does that map include your area Doc?

Not really.
Im in the green on that map... so nothing much to worry about for today
[link to twitpic.com]

Tomorrow its supposed to the nail biter for me

Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 01/29/2013 11:46 AM

Good to hear.

:)

Tomorrow is supposed to the nail biter for me though