Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...

316. MAweatherboy108:01 PM GMT em 05 de Fevereiro de 2013 Model consistency has been a huge issue on this storm, but the way it stands right now a widespread 1-2 feet of snow is on the way for New England this Friday and Saturday. [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] [link to raleighwx.americanwx.com] Last night I, and most of the models, had this one going way out to sea, but looking like King Euro might pick up a big win on this one as it was by far first to pick up on it. [link to www.wunderground.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Boston forecast for 3-4'' QPF (liquid equivalent) w/high temperatures around 35°F. [link to twitter.com]

Now the GFS is showing it up too [link to moe.met.fsu.edu]

Looks Nasty in the northeast, full winter up there... [link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@AFineBlogger rain turning over to snow early Saturday morning w/most recent forecast. Temps in mid-30s e.g. [link to twitter.com]

44 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

@ColdWaterMaine Portland has 2'' worth of melted snow so hopefully the ratios will be high [link to twitter.com]

45 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Total Precipitation thru 8-days for Gulf coast & SE shows flooding potential. 4-8'' maximum [link to twitter.com]

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE LIGHT
SNOW MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FRIDAY MORNING...THE WORST OF THE STORM
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE STORM REMAIN UNCERTAIN SINCE THE EVENT IS
STILL 72 HOURS IN THE FUTURE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT IS HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REACH INTO THE
DISTANT INTERIOR. THE OTHER CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY MIXING
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THAT WOULD CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL REQUIRE THE NEED FOR WIND HEADLINES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

FINALLY...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A ROUND OR
TWO OF MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE DURING HIGH TIDE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

[link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]

[link to weather.unisys.com]

what a f... RyanMaueRyan Maue 2 m


New GFS 18z synoptic surface set-up for Friday at 00z +54 hrs. Two little lows ... [link to twitter.com]

They are saying on the weather channel that the euro models are saying around 2 FEET of snow! Nice for Boston!

Can you guys in Beantown send some down to MD?

Im sooooooo confused with all the different predictions can anyone tell me what the forcast is for BOSTON AND WHEN THIS IS GOING TO START? THANKS!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
116 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRI INTO EARLY SAT
* STRONG WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN
* PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT DETAILS

THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TO THE ECMWF IDEA OF SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS STORM THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES. THERE ALSO IS A DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A
CLASSIC SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE
COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINES
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS POINT:

(1) THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY
MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES
FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES COULD
AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT.

(2) THE OTHER ISSUE IS DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAKE IT BACK
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE
DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD
SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR
WEST.

TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.

[link to forecast.weather.gov]

00Z GFS has the surface low tracking up the Gulf Stream and bombing inside the benchmark - its on.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

NAM takes it farther out and not as deep.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

Since GFS is trending with Euro, gotta consider NAM the outlier.

Latest snow dump estimate is now north of Boston along the Maine coast.

[link to grib2.com]

Stay tuned, that can change.


Also looks like a negatively tilting trough may hit the region late next week - stay tuned for that.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

[link to yfrog.com] North Pacific w/two powerful extratropical cyclones w/warm-seclusion inner-cores. +72 hrs:

4 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

[link to yfrog.com] Spectacular warm seclusion mature extratropical cyclone. Also, look at cold air draining into MA at 850 hPa.

4 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

[link to yfrog.com] ECMWF 00z best described as less crazy than 12z. Rather slow moving low blocked from moving as far north.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Thunderstorms are starting early in southern Texas. Lightning and heavy rain reported in both Cotulla and Beeville.

5 hAccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A severe thunderstorm moving through Zapata County in Texas has brought confirmed reports of 1 inch hail.

RyanMaueRyan Maue 12 h


5-day snowfall totals from 51 EC EPS members still shows plenty of variety. Time to watch. [link to twitter.com]

This is the 35yr anniversary week of the Blizzard of 78...

[link to www.youtube.com]

Valentine's Day Potential Coastal Snowstorm
By Andrew at 3:43 PM

There is potential for a coastal snowstorm near Valentine's Day on the 14th.

Above, the mean sea level pressure forecast is shown for February 12th. The synoptic overview is very stagnant, with strong high pressure in place across the nation. A large swath of modest low pressure is present north of the Yucatan Peninsula in the western Gulf of Mexico. This is the storm system we are watching for this event. To be perfectly honest, the prized Nor'easter track is quite nearly the only option this storm has. You have two strong high pressure masses that are essentially rolling out the red carpet between them. With strong high pressure over land and equally strong high pressure out to sea, any storm systems are easily persuaded into going up the East Coast.

Moving ahead to February 13th, the storm system has taken that red carpet path up the coast and is in the Mid-Atlantic. Although it shows two low pressure systems, I have a pretty good feeling that they would have a fair shot at merging, if this forecast were to verify. Regardless, both high pressure areas previously mentioned have now moved out of their domains, with the US high pressure pushing south and the Atlantic high pressure system also pushing south. This then raises the question, can the storm still continue on a path that would favor a lot of snow for the Northeast? Well, if we look again at the storm system, we see a tendency for lower pressure to apparently be trying to spread east towards the Atlantic. That tells me that it wants to go out to sea rather than going up the coast. In the Nor'easter track's defense, the storm is well enough inland that, even if it were to try and go out to sea, it would be moving northeast and would still make a clean hit on the Northeast for accumulating snow.

I want to dabble in that February 13th timeframe some more, but now we are looking at 500 millibar height anomalies, with warm colors indicating high pressure and cold colors showing low pressure. I'm taking a look at the atmospheric set-up for this storm, and i'm not really getting good vibes about it. In order for the storm to go up the coast, high latitude blocking in Greenland is almost a necessity. And while we do have some high pressure anomalies over Greenland, the majority is too far south for my liking. Also, high pressure in the Pacific Northwest and low pressure trying to rebuild in the Southwest makes me think a Rex Block is trying to form. The Rex Block consists of high pressure stacked on top of low pressure. Downstream of this blocking pattern is more zonally-oriented (west-to-east jet stream, little cold) wind flow, something that would try to force this storm to go more out to sea rather than up the East Coast.

Finally, we arrive on Valentine's Day. The storm has 'bombed out' to a central minimum pressure of 980 millibars in typical Nor'easter fashion. It is certainly giving quite a bit of love to the New England area, as very heavy snow is accumulating in much of the region as this event happens. As the projected snowfall graphic shows below, the accumulations would be extreme if this event happened:

I need to see multiple runs of the ECMWF in coming days to see if this event is still a go in the model's eyes, because right now, there is little support in other models and ensembles for an event of this magnitude to happen. I'm very on-edge about the lack of blocking high pressure over Greenland; I really want to see more enthusiastic high pressure over that land mass before I can look more positively at this storm's prospects. I would also like to see less of that Rex Block set-up; that puts me at an uneasiness I need to settle before I go ahead with more confidence on this event's potential.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

February 8-9 Potential Winter Storm
By Andrew at 4:52 PM

A snowfall event looks to be setting up for the Northeast.

The above model shows the snowfall forecast for February 9th. Keep in mind this is total accumulated snow. The GFS model is printing out several inches for inland New York, southern Maine and other states in New England. Heavier totals, possibly close to a foot of snow, may hit eastern New York, Massachusetts, and even into Vermont.

I should mention that the shorter-range NAM model is much less enthusiastic with these totals, and other models are not supportive of such a big snowfall like the one shown above. Regardless, accumulating snow is likely to fall in this region. Totals will become more apparent with time.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

It looks like the probability for a big outbreak early next week is not in the cards.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST WED FEB 06 2013

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITY /AROUND 15 PERCENT/ IS EVIDENT FROM PARTS
OF THE MID-SOUTH TO THE WRN GULF COAST ON D5/SUN. DECREASING
PREDICTABILITY THEREAFTER RENDERS LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR D6-8.

GFS/MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
PRIOR ECMWF/CMC DEPICTIONS OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING
FROM THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
D5. THIS RENDERS INCREASED CONFIDENCE OVER THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...BUT BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH LINGERING
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DETAILED TIMING/INTENSITY/TRACK OF
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

RETURN FLOW ALONG THE WRN GULF WILL COMMENCE FRI NIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
SEEMINGLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING D5 AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF
COAST. SUCH ABUNDANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE NEWD
EXTENT OF MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...THE CONSENSUS
TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WOULD REMAIN WELL-DIVORCED FROM THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE. AS
SUCH...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON D5...BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR A0A 30 PERCENT ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 02/06/2013

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Our mets just finished a map discussion. They've forecast a blizzard Friday for Portland, Boston, Providence [link to ow.ly]

Winter storm watches have been issued for parts of Michigan and the NE in advance of the upcoming winter storm. In SE MI, the thumb and Saginaw Valley areas are under a watch for over 6" of snow. Areas south of that but north of Wayne and Washtenaw counties should see 3-6" of snow. From there down to the Ohio border should see 2-4" with places near the border possibly having P-type issues. Any shift south or north would move the axis of the heaviest and prolonged snowfall. This should be the second biggest to biggest snowstorm of the year, depending on what part of SE MI and this storm should put Detroit several more inches above average. [link to i.imgur.com]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

The wet weather in the Northwest will shift southward and into the Rockies later this week. [link to ow.ly]

12. Neapolitan01:31 PM GMT em 06 de Fevereiro de 2013

Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Precip. in Texas is cranking up..
Thats a good thing..
Hope this year will be generous to them but not to the point of loss of life or damaging.
Once that potent system currently in Texas moves off the Northeast coast by the weekend, there's going to be some very heavy snows in areas--perhaps the heaviest of the season.

As with so many other things, we humans, with our relatively limited lifespans and points-of-view, tend to see massive structures such as the Great Lakes (and the polar ice caps, and deserts, and rainforests, and so on) as timeless and unchanging. But if the quickening pace of current events tells us nothing else, it's that that point-of-view is false. It's a stable-seeming veneer on the fluid reality: everything can change, and will.

[link to www.wunderground.com]

I feel this storm is going to be a monster...watch out Northeast

do you see this one? A huge low in the Northern Pacific [link to www.jma.go.jp]

Thank you Luisport