School closes in UK Flu

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]



Look at the latest news Although School not mentioned there... It will be closed till the 11th

Better to be safe than sorry. Right now in the UK there is a 1 in 5.5 million chance of getting swine flu and a zero chance of dying.

LOL, i am in Bristol.
BTW i can't seem to find the news about Bristol school closing. Your link only talk about a guy who got it from the couple who came from Mexico.

They're closing schools but letting sporting events carry on tomorrow.

The school is Downend School in Bristol

why 1 in 5.5 million?
Its more like 1 in 60 million.
Did you know chances of winning the lottery is only 1 in 14 million?
So, i think there is more chances of winning the lottery than getting the flu. I think i'll go and buy a ticket in Asda.
I am in Bristol.

Its runing across the top of the latest news ticker... also reported on Telly.

Last Edited by Cynical Realist on 05/01/2009 12:12 PM

Really? My brothers boy goes there.WOW

Just texted him to see if he had more news. They came round to dinner to our house last night.

Just text back to say they had to go and collect his son from school as it has been shut down.

The girl in question is from year 7. My brothers son is in year 8

And an extra week off also

Yup. My brother just said his son is chuffed. No school for another week.

I shouldn't be worried really but i am a bit now. We had dinner with my brother and his family last night. Now this morning the school that my brother's 12 year old son goes to has been closed because a girl one year younger had the flu from a trip to Mexico. Now i wonder how much of it has been transfered to the rest of school. Which in turn might be transfered to me, my wife (who is a nurse and works with special needs)and my daughter and my sister who was with us last night.

I guess i must be the first would be casualty of this in UK who is on GLP.
Shit, i never thought it would be me.LOL

The Math, the Math, The Math...

28 April there were 99 confirmed cases

29 April there were 154 confirmed cases

Yesterday 30 April there were 212 confirmed cases.

Today 1 May there are 478 confirmed cases

Source:

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]

99 to 154 (growth 1.55)
154 to 212 (growth 1.376)
212 to 478(growth 2.254)

Lets assume that growth remains constant at an average of those growth figures (1.822)

That means 2 May expected confirmed cases will be 871
3 May 1566
4 May 2850
5 May 5187
6 May 9440
7 May 17,180
8 May 31,267
9 May 56,907
10 May 103,570

If this is a non stop 100% communicable disease, then by 20 May we could be looking at 41,300,109 cases. Yes you read that correctly 41 million.

Even with a low death rate of say 0.05% we are talking a potential 20,650 deaths. Even with a mortality rate of just ).01% we would see 4,130 deaths of the infected population of 20 may.

That's just 20 days down the road.

The math will change as time progresses - mark my words this latest jump in the numbers is not the last large 'sudden' leap. The processing of information and tests will lead to skewed updates of the numbers - that is if the BBC is even given the real numbers.

Well done, Wraith... great explanation. I'm so tired of people saying that the flu goes around all the time, like that somehow negates the need to prepare or stay vigilant. Knowledge is power; thanks for the perspective.

and the math, i hate doing that bit!

Update on Flu in Bristol.
I have spoken to my brother. He says that only the year 7 students were given Tamiflu tablets and the rest of the school were sent home and told not to worry. I kinda think this may not be correct since the student would have been in contact with all age groups in the school.

I hope the parents of those kids keep a very close eye on them. Tamiflu can make them suicidal like it did to the kids in Japan who took it.

If there is a population of 60 million and 11 people have flu, it is 1 in 5.5 million.

lol

more than 11 have the flu ffs

how many thousands are just toughing it out?

this is all bullshit. this virus is probably sitting inside YOU at this very second, reading this bollocks I just typed!