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Earthquake Facts about New Madrid Fault Line
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Original Message
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HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES:
December 16, 1811 at 2:15AM Mag 7.2–8.1
epicenter in northeast Arkansas.
December 16, 1811 at 8:15AM Mag 7.2–8.1
epicenter in northeast Arkansas.
January 23, 1812 at 9AM Mag 7.0–7.8
epicenter in the Missouri Bootheel.
February 7, 1812 at 4:45AM 7.4–8.0
epicenter near New Madrid, Missouri.
FREQUENCY:
It has been 199 years and 14 days since Dec 16 1811
The average frequency for 6.3+ earthquakes is 70 years around the New Madrid Fault. 1895 was the last recorded earthquake in the region to exceed Magnitude 6. That is 115 years ago. We are 45 years overdue for a massive New Madrid Earthquake. So the fault line tension should be at least enough for a Mag 6-7 quake. But the delay in releasing fault stress could mean the final snap resulting in an earthquake could be much stronger then normal.
EFFECTS:
What to expect during the Big One, New Madrid: In 1811-1812 there were 3-4 massive earthquakes in the region. It is believe the first large quake set off the others. Liquifaction was a major problem for many areas and massive wide scale destruction of buildings, roads, bridges, infrastructure, ect. It is the 2nd largest earthquake potential in the USA, next to Alaska. California is 3rd. So the next quake should be larger then the 1906 California earthquake.
The Earth was observed rolling several feet in height. The great Mississippi was redrawn. Several waterfalls were created from new fissures opened up. This resulted in the Mississippi flowing in the OPPOSITE direction for a few hours. "Sand and Water Volcanoes" erupted high into the sky and left sand over large areas still seen today.
PROBABILITY:
In 1998, Scientist give a probability of 40%-63% for a massive earthquake to occur within 15 years of the published date. This means we are facing roughly 50% chance of a massive New Madrid Earthquake by 2013. The probability increases to 86%-97% within 50 years.
So basically scientist have stated there WILL be a massive New Madrid Earthquake by the latest date of 2048. But considering the recent geological anomalies globally, one could assume with confidence the Great New Madrid Earthquake is closer then we think.
It could be today, it could be tomorrow, it could be years from now. But one thing is certain. If you live in the area and your children stick around as they grow up, they will experience the Great New Madrid Earthquake of the 21st Century.
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