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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:Anonymous Coward 24058416:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMzNTE5NjIwXzI3M0FERTIw] [quote:madajs:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMzNTE5NDA1XzY2RTI5QzQz] [quote:TS66:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMzNTE2MjQ1XzVFNjAzNUEz] [quote:Anonymous Coward 12844841:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMzNTE2MTcyX0U5NkY0RDlB] [quote:SpiderJones:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMzNTE2MDU2X0RERjY4MTM2] [quote:TS66:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMzNTE2MDA3X0Q3ODY0NUU1] I don't know if it's CH536.... whatever it is set to hit us was already on it's way on the 17th according to Enlil. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/ [/quote] Yeah, what we have been talking about, it's just a very strong wind from a large coronal hole becoming increasingly geoeffective, had me going for a while trying to figure out if I missed something. [/quote] They show CH winds on the Enlil model? [/quote] That's my question, I've never seen it before. [/quote] Yeah, Enlil models the solar wind streams (the spirals you can see imaged). You can see on the model how the spiral hitting us on the 22nd is far more dense than usual. Thus the spike in forecasted readings for that time. Also, the catch-all Enlil model is currently displaying one of those far side CME's. Looks pretty fast. http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 [/quote] Please indulge me and understand my confusion. We are most effected by the solar winds, density, and temp of a Coronal Hole as it faces earth, a direct influence so to speak. This spiral has been spinning for, and it's hit has been predicted by the Enlil model for at least 5 days, and without the Enlil models available prior to the 17th, we have no date of origin !!! So that would mean that this solar wind originated from a random CH as early as the 14th, 15th, or 16th ??? It just doesn't make sense. That is not typical of any Coronal Hole Solar Wind I have ever seen. If CH536 earth facing at this moment were to send solar winds right now they would be felt within 24 hours, not 6 or 7 days from now. [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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