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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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In accordance with industry accepted best practices we ask that users limit their copy / paste of copyrighted material to the relevant portions of the article you wish to discuss and no more than 50% of the source material, provide a link back to the original article and provide your original comments / criticism in your post with the article.
[quote:Spittin'Cesium:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM2MzE2NDE5X0FBNEQzREM1] [quote:Anonymous Coward 35003139:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM2MzE2MzA3XzUxQTEzNzA2] [quote:Spittin'Cesium:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM2MzE2MDYyXzc1RDdEQTU2] I think we at least showed about 30-40 pages back that at the very least things are looking similar to the Dalton Minimum when we compare the cycles previous to our current 24 and the preceding Cycles that led to the Dalton Minimum - If I could remember what Pages that was on I'd pull it back up in order that you too could check it out for yourself:hf: The Maunder Minimum was a very entrenched period of minimal output that would be ele to Modern Civilization,a Dalton would be bad enough. In the light of not much Solar Action gwannin' I may try and find that data again. :sun:? [/quote] yes thanks sc, i seem to remember that... i know leifs ideas have contention amongst some, i'm too much of novice to comment personally but find any views interesting.. yeh freezing here too...! trying snow -im about 60mile east of bristol nr newbury, for a bit longer anyway : ) rp [/quote] Hello again:hi: I trawled Google to try and find some of the evidences I tried to use to show the comparison and found some of it,here - '[b]Why do you conclude that the deviation of this Cycles(Min. and Max.)comparative Magnetism compared to the last Cycles does not potentially represent a overall Minimum(akin to the Maunder)but you still say to expect the Earth-Facing quiet to continue Sol'Bro'? The Maunder Minimum is one of the longer known periods of quiet but there is also the 'Dalton Minimum' of the 1700's,here - 'The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton. Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years. Less severe than the Maunder minimum of the 1600s, a period with what was to be a long period of a sunspotless sun. It was nonetheless a cold era[/b].'http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/207_3.jpg . [b]Other interesting factoids relating to the apparent similarities between the build up and arrival of the Dalton Min. are the SS Numbers of the prior Cycles marked out here[/b]http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/207_6.gif http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/207_7.gif - [b]Excuse the fact that the dates span to 2010,these are from a article from 09,a period where a prolonged Spotless period led to the temporary collapse of our upper Atmospheres[/b]. [b]I'll quote some of the page and then post the link,you will find it of much use I think Da'Fuq - November 9th 2009 --------------------- 'The cycle was also very long. Minimum was likely reached in December, making the cycle 12.7 years long. The two prior cycles have been 10.3 and 9.7 years. Often cycles shorter than 10.5 years are stronger cycles with greater warmth, those greater than 11 years, weaker and colder. Short cycles herald a warm global temperature indicator. The Dalton Minimum it was thought started with a skipped solar cycle and coincided with a very long solar cycle 4 from 1784-1799. Usoskin (2001) in this paper believe they may have found a lost cycle in that period due to partly unreliable observations. It appears to have been a very weak cycle. This is the general belief of cycle lengths since the middle 1700s - Note the similarity of the last four cycles to the first four cycles leading into the Dalton Minimum[/b].' - Recommended Readinghttp://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?a=207 <--- Read it:sun: Phew! Edit:Links Fixed. [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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