Users Online Now:
2,418
(
Who's On?
)
Visitors Today:
712,605
Pageviews Today:
1,379,643
Threads Today:
562
Posts Today:
11,151
03:40 PM
Directory
Adv. Search
Topics
Forum
Back to Forum
Back to Thread
REPLY TO THREAD
Subject
SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
User Name
Font color:
Default
Dark Red
Red
Orange
Brown
Yellow
Green
Olive
Cyan
Blue
Dark Blue
Indigo
Violet
Black
Font:
Default
Verdana
Tahoma
Ms Sans Serif
In accordance with industry accepted best practices we ask that users limit their copy / paste of copyrighted material to the relevant portions of the article you wish to discuss and no more than 50% of the source material, provide a link back to the original article and provide your original comments / criticism in your post with the article.
[quote:NiNzrez 28232082:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM2Njg4MTE0XzZGMzUwNzYy] Bumping this info, for anyone who might have missed it :) [quote:NiNzrez:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM2NjgxNTMzX0I5NjYxNzE1] [quote:NiNzrez 28232082:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM2NjgwNzA2XzU5MTkwMzUy] ho hum well... we 'might' be seeing the front of a small CME looking at haarp magnetometer http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/cgi-bin/magnetometer/gak-mag.cgi as well as the GOES magentometer http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/mag_3d.html the GOES electron flux http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/elec_3d.html [/quote] [b]***[/b]Protons as seen at GOES are still on the rise http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html this is coupled with the Earth-Sun Magnetic connection that is occuring right now when Earths footprint is at or close to an active region, the CME coming from that region is magneticaly connected with earth and protons will rise if there is a CME from the footpring region [b]***[/b]Right now we can see that the Global D-Region Map is lighting up around the north and south poles. this is becuse there is a Polar Cap Absorption event going on right now. This is from the increase in protons that are coming through the polar regions right now(see above). The higher the proton count, the higher the reading level on the D-Region map, and the farther toward the equator we see the reading increase http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/global.html Explination of map: The precipitation of protons (as well as other ions) into the earth’s atmosphere during the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can also create significant enhancements of ionospheric electron densities in the D region. Solar protons with energies between 1 to 200 MeV are primarily responsible for most of ionization of the D region and, consequently, for the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves. Because of shielding of the earth by its magnetic field SEPs find easy access to the atmosphere only in high latitude regions around the earth’s geomagnetic poles. Such occurrences are therefore termed Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events. Read More: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/dregion_absorption_documentation.html [b]***[/b]NOAA SWPC still have the CME arrival for Saturday March 16th, but they are now calling for a G2 geomagnetic storm on Sunday March 17, 2013 Issue Time: 2013 Mar 15 1712 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Mar 16: G1 (Minor) Mar 17: G2 (Moderate) Mar 18: None (Below G1) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html [b]***[/b]At the same time, we now see Spaceweather stating that this latest CME is not due to arrive at all until Sunday March 17, 2013 (a whole day later than SWPC has stated)and are now speculating to "green skys" for St. Pats day this Sunday The CME left the sun traveling some 900 km/s (2 million mph). Three-dimensional computer models based on observations from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO probes predict the CME will cross the void between sun and Earth in two days or less. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on March 17th. http://spaceweather.com/ [b]***[/b]Ace data is remaining fairly steady at the moment with a slight slow rise in solar wind speeds. The highest for the day being 531.7km/sec recorded at 03:20 UTC (around half hour ago). Protons at ACE are staying around the 2.0 range http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace/ace_swepam_1m.txt Here is the link for ALL the ACE data plots http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html [b]***[/b]Looking on STEREO, we can see the CME enrout in space on the STEREO B HI2 images. The CME will appear as black and white on the image (see the far left) http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2013/03/16/behind/hi2/1024/20130316_014721_s7h2B.jpg The black portions you see are areas of very dence plasma. the more black you see, the more dence the CME is. This is one way to try forecasting just how strong the CME impact will be once it arrives. Now, I bet you want to know where Earth is on the STEREO B HI2 image we just looked at? ok im ahead of you on this one :) Here you can see Earth is labled on the HI2 image http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/beacon/planets/behind_hi2_planets.jpg Here you can see what planets are seen on all the STEREO images http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/beacon/planets/ [b]***[/b]Also keep in mind, that Sunspot 1692 that produced this event, will be directly Earth facing over this next week. More events may be in the making SWPC Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar 20% Chance for M Flares 01% Chance for X Flares ALL links to solar data used as well as general solar information can be found at any time on My Solar Alerts top tabs Solar Q&A/Guides: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/p/solar-monitors.html Solar Monitors: http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/p/solar-monitors.html ... stay tuned [/quote] [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
============================================================
Pictures (click to insert)
General
Politics
Bananas
People
Potentially Offensive
Emotions
Big Round Smilies
Aliens and Space
Friendship & Love
Textual
Doom
Misc Small Smilies
Religion
Love
Random
View All Categories
|
Next Page >>