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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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In accordance with industry accepted best practices we ask that users limit their copy / paste of copyrighted material to the relevant portions of the article you wish to discuss and no more than 50% of the source material, provide a link back to the original article and provide your original comments / criticism in your post with the article.
[quote:Spittin'Cesium:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM2NzgyNDA5X0FBQjVCQkI0] Thank you Ninz - I think I can prove it with Two images,maybe three first,this of the 0bserved and measured Overall Magnetic Field Strength of Sunspots alone,independent of the actual Solar Dipolehttp://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2009/09/03/03sep_sunspots_resources/trend3_strip.jpg You can see that is a massive decrease in Overall Strength of their Magnetic Fields and we know that in order to Flare they require a More complex Polarity(esp. for High C-X+ Flares)..combining that with thishttp://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png which shows at the same time,a massive difference in The actual overall Field Strength of our Star entirely - I know you know NiNz,but others,if the suns loses its overall Field Strength like this it simply will not be able to produce Sunspots,and from Livingston and Penn(guys who made the Observations)their serious extrapolation was that'by 2015-2030 we will see zero to few Sunspots forming at all' (you can read about this in basic form herehttp://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png )Penn and Livingstone are amongst the best Solar Brains we have as a species,in my opinion,for 0bservations of Solar Cyces etc. Further to the plots above I want to also present this(don't mean to sound like a fucking teacher,feel like a prick saying that)a plot of the extrapolated Future Field Strengths of our Sol until 2030,these show what is my main thrusthttp://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF-latest.gif Do you see the problem there Br0thers and Solsters..apart from the(scary)decrease in projected MFS,you should also notice that it will not again switch Hemisphere for the near fore-seeable future - This leaves me to say what most of you know already,some may have a hard time admitting it,but it is our duty to do so as these are the facts 'Landscheidt Minimum'. I will now introduce another two brilliant Solar Statistical compilers and there incredible Formulae that has and is predicting soley by Computer Program alone(ones they wrote)the exact Magnetic Behavio(u)r of our Sol,Tim Channon and M.A Vulkacevic - I'll snip some but you need to read this stuff if you want to know where we are in relation to Solar/Universal time and our Species,as I see it... '[b]Back in 2003, independent investigator and talkshop contributor Vukcevic developed a formula to describe the changing solar polar fields which has closely mimicked the Sun’s magnetic activity since. The terms in this formula are based on the motion of the biggest of the gas giants,Jupiter and Saturn. You can see a graph based on his formula and the WSO polar field data here. In a complementary line of investigation, talkshop contributing author Tim Channon made a study of the possible set of cycles and amplitudes which could replicate the reconstruction of solar activity since 1610 made by NASA’s Judith Lean Tim has also used the software he created to do cycles analysis to discover the dominant cycle periods which describe the motion of the sun around the solar system barycentre caused by the motion of the planets, predominantly the four outer gas giants, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. He has now discovered that these same dominant cycle periods successfully replicate the record of changes in the solar polar fields. For planetary-solar theorists this is exciting news, because it forms a new line of evidence demonstrating the strong possibility of a link between solar motion caused by the planets, and the changing levels of magnetic activity observed on the solar surface. Here is Tim’s plot showing records of the changes in the field strength of the solar polar fields in red and the output of his cycles analysis software using the solar barycentric motion dominating cycle periods. The Pearson R2 value for the correlation is 0.975, or in layman’s terms “just about spot on.”[/b] - http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/polar-field-bary-1.png?w=614 <--- Plot [b][i]At long last we have a close range forecast, albeit based on a short time span data series, which ties planetary motion to observable solar activity. An additional caveat though, is that the sun has been acting anomalously over the last few years, and we only have the vaguest of ideas about its non-linear behaviour. Still, if this forecast shows skill against observations over the coming years, it will be a vindication of cycles based analysis, and another boost for the planetary-solar theory[/i][/b].https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/03/14/tim-channon-modeling-the-solar-polar-fields-and-barycentric-motion/ Here is the hidden door to this modelling,if you want to look furtherhttp://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC-CETfiles.htm Ok so,you more than likely may be thinking 'Oi! 'Cesium - What the fuck is your point!?' My point is - Mini to possible full Ice Age starting from at least 3 Years ago,and has been forecast to be occurring right now and for some time,here is a table showing the previous grand minima. and the future ones based off of the longer cycles of the pasthttp://ktwop.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/solar-minima.png?w=450&h=313&h=313 You can see we are already in the middle of the predicted Grand Minima. right now from that graph...but you don't need to believe me - I just threw this together quickly to outline and recap,I can prove my facts or their basis a lot further if you need me to - But for this Morning the above should suffice for your Coffee easy read,and also thishttp://ktwop.wordpress.com/tag/dalton-minimum/ read and utilize all links charts etc. and this - http://www.schulphysik.de/klima/landscheidt/iceage.htm And if you ned proof that Climates forcer is Solar then here,read this alsohttp://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20011206/ a small piece from NASA about how the Sun causes Ice ages and this is directly due to Weak Sunspot Activity. Remember,we are in a Solar Max - the Background X-rays should be almost constantly in the Mid C Range(at least) but yet I estimate the overall X-ray Flux to have been at a max. of B6-8 Max. since the onset of this Cycle,I amsure alot would agree with that estimate. More reading: 'Decreasing Sunsp ot Magnetic Fields Explain Unique 10.7 cm Radio Flux' - The Penn/Livingstone and Svalgaard PDF of their workhttp://www.leif.org/EOS/Penn-Liv-Sval-ApJ.pdf :shk: Luv 2 all of you! :sun: Edits:sorry,I rushed through it and didn't check What I had typed:hf: lol. [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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