Users Online Now:
1,873
(
Who's On?
)
Visitors Today:
753,157
Pageviews Today:
1,217,462
Threads Today:
486
Posts Today:
7,358
12:57 PM
Directory
Adv. Search
Topics
Forum
Back to Forum
Back to Thread
REPLY TO THREAD
Subject
SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
User Name
Font color:
Default
Dark Red
Red
Orange
Brown
Yellow
Green
Olive
Cyan
Blue
Dark Blue
Indigo
Violet
Black
Font:
Default
Verdana
Tahoma
Ms Sans Serif
In accordance with industry accepted best practices we ask that users limit their copy / paste of copyrighted material to the relevant portions of the article you wish to discuss and no more than 50% of the source material, provide a link back to the original article and provide your original comments / criticism in your post with the article.
[quote:NiNzrez:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM3NTE4MTY3Xzk0OEVEQjc0] [b]Expected Events:[/b] *April 23rd, by mid day Coronal hole winds are expected to arrive bringing upon unsettler geomagnetic conditions. This is expected to continue through at least the next 3 days (April 24th - April 26th) *April 24th, by late in the day we have a possible glancing blow from the CME that occured April 21st @ 20:36 --------------------------------------------------- a geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for April 25th this is due to the 2 large Coronal Holes that are now Earth facing. The winds from these holes should arrive on around the 25th http://www.solen.info/solar/images/AR_CH_20130421_hres.jpg Issue Time: 2013 Apr 22 2346 UTC [b]WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Apr 23: None (Below G1) Apr 24: None (Below G1) [u]Apr 25: G1 [/u](Minor)[/b] THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html [b]EARLIER TODAY:[/b] *Geomagnetic Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (22 Apr) with the unsettled periods mid to late in the UTC day due to a possible glancing blow from the 18 Apr CME. [b]By mid day on day 2 (23 Apr), a recurrent CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective [/b]increasing activity to unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods. CH HSS activity is expected to continue to influence the geomagnetic field through the end of the forecast period (24 Apr). [b]UPDATE:[/b] The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days 1 and 2 (23 Apr, 24 Apr) and [b]quiet to minor storm levels on[u] day 3 (25 Apr)[/u] due to the effects of the recurrent CH HSS[/b] [b]EARLIER TODAY:[/b] [b]A CME was observed in C2 imagery off the west limb at 21/2036 UTC[/b]. A comparison with SDO/AIA 193 imagery shows darkening around Region 1723 at 21/2008 UTC associated with a C2/Sf flare at 21/2015 UTC. Analysis is pending on the geoeffectiveness of this event [b]UPDATE:[/b] :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2013 Apr 23 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1726 (N13W35, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for multiple C-flares early in the period, as well as an impulsive M1 flare at 22/1029 UTC. This region maintained its magnetic complexity as consolidation occurred in both the leader and trailer spots, moderate mixing of polarities occurred in the trailer spots, and area more than doubled to approximately 550 millionths. Region 1726 remains the area of interest for significant flare production. Regions 1723 (S19W70, Cso/beta) and 1727 (N25E18, Dao/beta) were stable throughout the period. [b]The coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the west limb at 21/2036 UTC was determined to be only slightly Earth-directed, giving us a potential glancing blow late in the period on day 2 (24 Apr).[/b] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt SOOOOOOO according to their reports, anytime from the 23rd to 25th is when we should expect the CH winds Spaceweather.con still says April 26-27 for the CH winds to arrive looks like they cant really decided on a date haha We were expecting a possible small glancing blow today from the CME that occured on April 18th. may be the culperate for the oddness we are seeing on ACE starting around the 05:00 mark They are now saying we may see a slight glancing blow from the CME that occured on April 21 at 20:36 UTC and we should expect the CME to glance Earth around late on April 24th Edit: i wil be adding this to the 2nd post area on the very 1st page of this thread, so we can easily look back on it to see whats expected and when [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
============================================================
Pictures (click to insert)
General
Politics
Bananas
People
Potentially Offensive
Emotions
Big Round Smilies
Aliens and Space
Friendship & Love
Textual
Doom
Misc Small Smilies
Religion
Love
Random
View All Categories
|
Next Page >>