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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:#Geomagnetic_Storm#:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDM0NDQ4X0E2NUY2QjBF] [quote:NiNzrez:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDM0NDE4X0RCMjg5RjRC] [quote:Isis One:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDM0MDgwXzMzODA0RUM=] [quote:Luisport:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDI3MTM3XzUwQkZBNEVE] [quote:Anonymous Coward 21765116:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDI2OTY0XzI2RTM3Q0Y=] [quote:Luisport:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDI2ODQ1XzQ2OUQwRkVD] protons are rising a lot! http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Proton.gif [/quote] Wow what's going on here? [/quote] going vertical now!!! [/quote] looking like that 2003 event Nin posted earlier. [/quote] ahh someone find that post..? I looked and we posted so much I cant fint it :( I would like to re quote it so the night crew can find it a bit easier, for reference this will continue to rise over the next 24hrs or so we are looking at a big SEP event I said earlier "how many want to take bets this goes to a S4 or maybe even a S5 by tomorrow night?" [b] we have now reached the S3 threshold[/b] Issue Time: 2013 May 23 0348 UTC ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Begin Time: 2013 May 23 0330 UTC [b]NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong[/b] [b]Potential Impacts:[/b] Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels. [b]Spacecraft -[/b] Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely. [b]Radio -[/b] Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html [quote:shadasonic:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDMzNDkzXzE5RjRGNDcy] [quote:NiNzrez:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDMzMDcyX0Y3Nzk0MUI2] [quote:NiNzrez:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzM4MDMyODUzXzRFNzI1N0Y=] Issue Time: 2013 May 23 0258 UTC ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2013 May 23 0240 UTC Station: GOES-15 Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html ACE data is likely corrupt because they did not close off the sensors when todays SEP event began the protons hit the sensors, and makes the sensors give incorrect readings sad, but ACE is very old and years beyond what it was expected to stay working for us any data we get from ACE is by luck but when these proton events hit the wide open sensors it really messes them up http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html [/quote] that being said if the proton and electron sensors were not corrupted, and they do not appear to be, we have a rise in high energy protons http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/SIS_24h.html a rise in low energy protons (they show if a CME is on its way to earth) http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/EPAMp_24h.html and a rise in low energy electrons http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/EPAMe_24h.html we are currently just below the S3 solar radiation storm threshold http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html [color=red][b]the S3 level should be breached sometime in the coming hours[/b][/color] here is the NOAA scale info for a S3 solar radiation Storm [b]S 3 - Strong[/b] [b]Biological:[/b] unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** [b]Satellite operations:[/b] may experience memory device problems and noise on imaging systems; star-tracker problems may cause orientation problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded. [b]Other systems:[/b] blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely. [b]Number of storm days of this level per solar cycle:[/b] 10 [/quote] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/SIS_24h.html Yes indeed , got some action, was waiting for this. You think we'll hit S4 Nin. After going through your post on the Seps and looking through old info I believe we may get that second snowplow hit also. We MAY see those secondary waves come in strong. Old SOl is making things interesting, much fun as this is completely different than the flip I expected. I think we may hit the start of a new minimum next year, this one has some suprises left. You just never truly know, thats the beautifull interest.Peace all! [/quote] [/quote] I say S5. [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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