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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:learner 5821206:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI4Mjk0MzE1XzZCMDQ0QzQ3] in looking into the cosmic ray thing, i came across the geomagnetic data. a plot of field strength in three directions for the month past : http://forecast.izmiran.rssi.ru/magrE_month.htm the plot shows a clear daily variation... kinda looked like a heart beat scan at first glance. Whatever, it shows a remarkable regularity. what could cause this i wonder? i looked and found: "4. Conclusions Monitoring of electromagnetic geophysical parameters in polar areas is fundamental in many fields since it can give important information for a better comprehension of the Earth’s magnetosphere structure and evolution, and the solar control on magnetic activity as observed at Earth’s surface. The diurnal variation of geomagnetic field elements is a well known phenomenon that has been extensively studied especially at mid latitudes. An equivalent electric current system is often used to represent the source of the observed field. At middle latitudes the equivalent current system consists of two current vortices, centred at about 40° latitude N and S respectively. A special additional contribution to diurnal variation appeared necessary in order to justify the polar daily variation plots. This additional field was called Sq d (Solar quiet polar) or DP2 according to various authors (Nishida and Kokubun, 1971; Ratcliffe, 1972). A possible cause of the polar current system is the magnetospheric convection that generates a quasi permanent current system in the polar regions which is steadily oriented with respect to the Sun-Earth line; the Earth rotation underneath this system causes the magnetic field elements daily variation. Our analysis, based on box-plot statistics, shows that the pattern of diurnal variation, in all the components, does not depend on the season or the solar activity; conversely, the variation amplitude strongly depends on both season and solar activity. In fact, for each year a clear seasonal effect is visible, with the largest variation during austral summer and middle and low activity during equinoxes and winter respectively. The dependence of the daily current system that causes the S field at the station on solar activity emerges even more pronounced. Looking at the plots, a link between some characteristics of daily variation and magnetic activity was immediately evident: when the planetary magnetic activity is higher the variation amplitudes in all seasons are higher. We can conclude that at high latitude, contrary to what happens at middle latitude, daily variation also depends strongly on magnetic global activity. This result is consistent with previous findings (Lepidi et al., 2003), obtained from the analysis of a very short data set (approximately 1 month) during local summer at cap latitudes." document is here : http://www.earth-prints.org/handle/2122/3063 ...which is interesting, but does not answer the question. our planet has a magnetic daily heartbeat that appears to be independent of solar activity (tho its amplitude is affected by solar summer vs solar winter): how cool! [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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