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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:Anonymous Coward 2159872:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI4MzQ3MDg0X0VFRkVDMTNC] [quote:Hugh M Eye:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI4MzQyNTYxXzMxMDIyQUUz] [quote:Anonymous Coward 1414904:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI4MzQxMzI2X0REMzJBOTE4] Hmm Solarham says the cme is not earth directed but Spaceweather says it is. Who's right? I think it's the most massive cme I've seen on the simulation. Also what does the current radiation storm tell us about the cme? [/quote] [quote:Anonymous Coward 2159872:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI4MzQyMTU2XzgzNDI0NDVG] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/ This model indicates it will miss us [/quote] This should be a good head-to-head test of the two prediction models. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis system (iSWA/NASA) Cygnet Streamer shows arrival at Earth on 11/28 @approx. 15:00 UTC with more than a glancing shot. The new NOAA ENLIL CME SW model shows a near-miss or glancing blow on 11/30. Two very different looking models-we'll have to wait and see. SEEDS Movie of CME and shock-wave. http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/seeds/mkmovie.php?cme=20111126.073605.w129.v0581.p276&frame=6&r SOHO C3 image from 10:06 UTC: http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c3/20111126/20111126_1006_c3_1024.jpg NOAA Proton Event ....WARNING-Persistence -for the next 12 hours! http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html :spock: [/quote] Seems they have updated this to show the CME hitting earth http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/ [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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