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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:Hugh M Eye:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI4ODkxNDEzXzExNkQyQ0Ez] [quote:NiNzrez:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI4ODkxMDMwX0JENUJCNzQ3] [quote:Anonymous Coward 2159872:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI4ODg0MzAxX0U5ODlCM0M5] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Sis_24h.gif seems to be on the rise [/quote] we do have the Coronal Hole winds hitting earth now as IWTB explained But i saw this proton rise and went to have a look usually we see these proton rises when there is a CME and all charts show something hit here is the nict look at all the graphs, including the AL/AU and AO/AE http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html we can see something arrived around just before midnight UTC time so lets see the other charts for that time we see the proton rise around the same time protons took a rise, electrons took a sharp drop, so did the magnetometer http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html and the K index rose to Kp3 with Kp4 expected at this time http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html here is the current magnetogram http://www.solarham.com/magnetogram.htm Kiruna Magnetogram Description http://hpde.gsfc.nasa.gov/LWS_Space_Weather/Kiruna_descrip.html a NOAA space weather Alert was issued: Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 1849 Issue Time: 2012 Jan 03 0504 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2012 Jan 03 0503 UTC Valid To: 2012 Jan 03 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Onset http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html Good thing were getting the NOAA 3 day forcast before they get a chance to change it haha here is what they had to say IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: [b]The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for day 1 (3 January). [/b]Activity is forecast to increase to mostly unsettled conditions with possible active periods on day 2 (4 January) with an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC). Conditions should return to mostly quiet on day 3 (5 January). http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html [b]my guess is that the solar sector boundary crossing has happened a whole day earlier than expected[/b] [b]what is solar sector boundary crossing?[/b] The solar wind in the ecliptic plane is organized in such a way that it generally has 2 or 4 sectors per solar rotation (27 days) within which the magnetic field is pointed generally toward or away from the Sun. The surface separating the polarities is called the Heliospheric Current Sheet. Sector boundaries are the times observed at Earth when the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reverses. Well defined sector boundaries are those boundaries for which there is good data, the reversal takes place cleanly, and intervals on either side of the boundary have a uniform field direction for ~4 days http://wso.stanford.edu/SB/SB.html (view page 2) https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:s8dcMS4WnoIJ:www.reeve.com/Documents/Magnetometry%2520Reports/Using%2520SWPC%2520RSGA.pdf+solar+sector+boundary+crossing&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESiEf8-HMPPc_kf6m2T7Oup263PblxduWb3c87-MUlUV6DoH18khJJEZ_JkE0uC47M4pJ6L_sKLi4WvW8WpfaELyBMck5VmQGQSdLHKEWWLqDWA5u-MELdG2nKDqZDYwbFfKUmQW&sig=AHIEtbRkYw_3Hxqytyk21b4esyraPXmC1g Observation of the relationship between solar sector boundary crossing and lightning frequency by the ISS-b satellite http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1983wcrs.proc..475C this all sounds like it's right up SickScent and aether's aley :) [/quote] Nice catch, NIN, and good research,too.:applause: Solar sector boundary crossing,eh, I'm glad to learn something new today. Looks more geo-effective than the CME we just had. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/mag_3d.html A GLP'er has devised his own Space weather monitor widget for Windows. I haven't used it but you or others may find it useful. http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1077356/pg1 I hope you're keeping warm and cozy up there in Michigan.:coffeecup: [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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