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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:Starwind:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMwMDU0NDAwXzcwNDc5REZG] [quote:Anonymous Coward 3487467:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMwMDU0MTA0XzcxRTE5QjBE] is it possible for the magnetosphere to blow away? would any of this cause a pole shift? How much trouble could we really be in if this goes down hill fast like at 12am or so? What is the worst ever senario- say for tonight? And thanks inadvance for answering my questions... [/quote] 1) I don't really think it would be possible for the magnetosphere to blow away, the core would have to stop moving to stop generating the magnetic field. It is however getting weaker so over time it may start showing worse results from hits of similar strength (I.E. stronger geomagnetic storms) 2) I'm not qualified to speak to the effect of CMEs on the core already, I'm just some guy but I don't particularly think that it would cause a pole shift. There may be evidence we are approaching one already (just a magnetic not a tectonic) but its not exact science and the time frames are looooong 3) I don't expect this CME to be a disaster, but if things go downhill the trouble would mostly be with power systems at high latitudes in a moderate-severe event 4) Worst ever scenario? From the CME itself without any drastic changes in the earth would be a severe geomagnetic storm of the G5 class that rages long and powerfully enough to induce currents in the earth that burn out our entire electric grid. Everything we have is "Grounded" and the earth becoming charged from these events would destroy transformers (and have on a smaller/regional scale). In the carrington event in 1859 it was said telegraphs sparked and caused fires. Imagine that happening with every single structure being wired on all sides with current carrying copper wiring surrounded by flammable material. That's all "Could be" though. I don't expect this CME to be out of the ordinary. Carrington was 2,400kms+. I think if we were to get a "Worst case scenario" solar storm you might hear more about it beforehand. Like a rapid succession of strong hits or strong hits traveling some ridiculous speed (2,500-3,000kms) If a CME launched off at 4,000kms or an unusually long chain of strong CMEs lifted off directly at earth you would hear more "OH fuck" from people who pay attention to it. But who really knows? This stuff seems to have a lot more variables than anyone knows and it all depends on each CME independently and however the earths magnetosphere reacts and how it's polarity is tilted and its condition after a previous hit and the speed of a CME and the composition of it, the density of it and on and on. The important thing is to realize that there is a danger, not think that it is crazy to think about it, and watch these events to learn more about it. Nobody I know knew anything about CMEs, yesterdays hit or tomorrows. So in some golden BB event when everyones house bursts into flames or the grid goes down it would pay to be the one guy in your town who wouldn't speed days/weeks waiting on the power company to give you back HBO and take steps to assess the situation from the moment it happened. [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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