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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:nerdrage88sasr:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMwMTQyOTQ0X0M4QzlBQTc4] [quote:Hugh M Eye:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzMwMTQwNDIzX0EyMjZDMzg1] Although i'm still not certain what we're looking at, I may have been hasty in poo-pooing the apparent magnetosphere reversal during the March 12th CME storm. If you look at the"normal" model here we see the solar winds pass the Earth in a pretty uniform direction. I took a recent snapshot to represent normal conditions. :windnormal: I went and found a snapshot from 3/12 (picking a random timeframe during the peak of the magnetic storm between 18:00 and 23:00 UTC) which shows the arrows going towards the sun instead of away from it. :wind2015: Here is a "normal" magnetosphere sim from today: :magnormal: Compare to a magnetosphere model from the same "storm" time as above: :mag2015: I confess my experience with these models is nil, so I have no idea if these are unusual or typical of a high-energy CME impact. I did notice that the BATS-R-US is created at the University of Michigan, so maybe NINzrez can look up someone involved at Michigan to give us more insight. Images from these models are only available for two weeks online, so if you want to explore the data from 3/12 don't wait too long. Go to this page and scroll down where it says "choose image" and then click on "show new images" and it will display the archived image from the time you choose. Sorry, but there's no way to link to each image (it took a lot of work just to post these samples). http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/SWMF_RealTime_browse.cgi Thanks to the AC who posted this criteria behind the models: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/models/modelinfo.php?model=SWMF/BATS-R-US%20with%20RCM [/quote] interesting indeed Hugh, good find!! the 'wave anomoly' (as i call it) is back at Yellowstone.. Mary River chart... http://www.isthisthingon.org/Yellowstone/daythumbs.php started late yesterday, and still running now...are we being with anything at the moment? Solar Wind is running at 678...maybe its a reflection of the Solar Wind effecting the EQ activity here? but why only that area? may have to do a bit deeper research into Mary Lake and try and find a reason for this...its odd... Peace [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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