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TWC Dr. Greg Forbes' TOR:CON (Tornado Forecast) for DANGEROUS Tornado Outbreak 4/26-4/28
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Original Message
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Several states are already under multiple tornado warnings this afternoon and today's outbreak in many states will continue well into the early morning hours.
Then, more of the same tomorrow and Thursday too.
TOR:CON values are all the way up to NINE in somes states today and tomorrow.
[link to www.weather.com]
Updated: April 26, 2011 1:45 pm EST
The Weather Channel (TWC) Exclusive TOR:CON index
by Dr. Greg Forbes, TWC Severe Weather & Tornado Expert
What is the TOR:CON Index?
the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.
TOR:CON Value Descriptions
8: High probability of a tornado
6: Moderate possibility of a tornado
4: Low chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
2: Very low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or strong wind gusts possible
0: Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm
Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.
Severe Weather Overview
All ingredients are coming together for a dangerous tornado situation in northeast TX, south AR as a surface low forms in TX, wind shear is favorable, instability is very large, and an upper level jet stream is blasting into the area. Farther north and east, lesser-instability and wind shear will bring severe thunderstorms and an isolated tornado threat. Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak will continue Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front marches east.
TOR:CON Predictions
Forecast for Tuesday, April 26
AL north and west-central - 3
AR north - 6
AR south - 9
GA north - 2
IL south - 3
IN - 4
KY west - 5
KYcentral and east - 3 to 4
LA north - 8
LA central - 4
MI southeast - 3 to 4
MO southeast - 4
MS northwest - 8
MS northeast - 5
MS central - 4
NC west - 2
NY west - 3
NY east-central - 2 to 3
OH west - 4
OH east - 3 to 4
OK west and south-central - 2
OK southeast - 6
PA west - 3
PA northeast - 2 to 3
TN west - 7
TN middle - 5
TN east - 3 to 4
TX northeast - 9
TX north-central - 4
VA southwest - 2
WV - 2
other areas - 2 or less
Forecast for Wednesday, April 27
AL north - 8 to 9
AL south - 6
AR south-central and east - 3 to 4
DC - 2 to 3
FL west panhandle - 4 to 5
FL east panhandle - 3 to 4 night
GA northwest - 6
GA west-central - 4
GA northeast - 3
GA central and south - 4 night
IL south - 3
IN south and east-central - 4
KY east - 7
KY west - 4
LA west - 3 to 4
LA east - 4 to 5
MD west - 2 to 3
MI - southeast 2
MO southeast - 2 to 3
MS west and southeast - 4
MS east -central and northeast- 9
NC west - 3
NC central - 3 night
NY - 2 to 3
OH south - 5
OH north - 3
PA - 3
SC west and central - 3
SC east - 3 night
TN middle - 8
TN west - 4 to 5
TN east - 6
VA west and central - 3
VT - 2
WV west - 5
WV east - 3
Forecast for Thursday, April 28
DC - 2 to 3
DE -- 2 to 3
FL north and central peninsula - 2 to 3
GA southeast - 2 to 3
NJ - 2 to 3
NC northeast - 4
NC central and southeast - 2 to 3
NY central and east - 2 to 3
MD - 2 to 3
PA east half - 2 to 3
SC east half - 2 to 3
VA southeast - 4
VA central and northeast - 2 to 3
VT west - 2 to 3
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