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Original Message
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Please check the latest wiki page of Comet Elenin
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
Due to extremely high eccentricity, it's difficult to calculate the orbital period of Comet Elenin. The latest estimation of the orbital period is around 11,690 yr.
What’s so special about this 11690-yr period?
1. Look what happened in 9500 BC?
Firstly, 9564 BC (11575 years ago) was supposed to be the year Atlantic was destroyed.
Furthermore, quote from [link to www.timeline2012.net] :
"There is geological proof that mountain ranges across the world have risen or fallen 3,000 to 8,000 meters in a single event some 11,500 years ago. The research and conclusions for this proof can be found in a book called "CATACLYSM!: Compelling Evidence of a Cosmic Catastrophe in 9500 B.C.","
Link to Amazon: [link to www.amazon.com]
2. The 11,500-yr period is also mentioned in "The Anglo-Saxon Mission" on Project Avalon
[link to projectavalon.net]
[link to projectavalon.net]
"W: You know, I really don't know. I wish I did know. It's something that I'd love to know, but we've now entered into that period where this geophysical event is about to take place, when we consider the length of time that's passed since the last one which happened about 11,500 years ago, and it happens round about 11,500 years, cyclically. It's now due to happen again."
(BTW, the interview in Feb 2010 also predicted nuclear war in Middle-East to start from mid-to-late 2011)
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Most of you already know about Elenin. If you don't, please take a look at [link to www.ufo-blogger.com]
There are 2 out of 11 M8.6+ mega earthquakes that happened in the past 109 years when Elenin-Earth-Sun is aligned. M8.1 also happened on 09 Sep 2009. And there are dozens of M7+.
This is NOT a coincidence. (Would Sir Isaac Newton call Kepler's laws a coincidence?)
Moreover, the next perihelion of Elenin is 10 Sep 2011, exact 10 years after 911.
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UPDATED 2011/May/17 The Orbital Period is WRONG!!!! I update the theory in Pg 9 as follows
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CORRECTION!!! CORRECTION!!! CORRECTION!!!
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Hi AC 1378793, I think you are right. I'm glad that you disproved the 11,690-yrs cycle of Elenin. I feel bad for having provided WRONG info.
I made a mistake. Because the different pre/post-perihelion orbital periods (~3.5m and ~11,690 years) are both output from JPL Horizons [link to en.wikipedia.org] , Elenin does not have stable 11,690-yrs cycle.
As a result, Elenin does not cause the 11,500-yrs geophysical cycle. The real cause of that cycle still remains a mystery. (However, Elenin still poses GRAVE DANGER, though maybe not as catastrophic as 9,500 BC)
Furthermore, after rethinking it, now I believe the orbital periods cited by Wikipedia are also WRONG.
Note that Elenin was discovered in Dec 2010, and the public observation data only last less than 200 days. All current calculation of long-term Ephemeris are based on the assumption of negligible mass of Elenin. The barycenter of our solar system will move if Elenin has huge mass, e.g., multiple times of Jupiter. In other words, JPL Horizons may not calculate the perturbation correctly. The eccentricity data simulated by Wikipedia authors ( [link to home.comcast.net] ) and Leonid Elenin ( [link to spaceobs.org] ) may very well be wrong, too.
(Remarks: It doesn't imply that near-term orbit in 2011/2012 from NASA page are wrong. It just means no public-accessible data are accurate enough to calculate the LONG-TERM orbital period of Elenin)
[Bottom Line] We don't know Elenin's real orbital period, so we cannot relate it to previous geophysical cycles.
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Ok, the WRONG theory in this thread may already discredit me, but I still want to explain why I believe Elenin has huge mass and how it can cause mega earthquakes.
I'm not aware of any public-accepted scientific theory on the correlation between planetary alignment and earthquakes, which usually falls into the class of Pseudo-Science.
[Popular View 1] Planets ---> (Gravi. Force) Earth
[Popular View 2] Planets ---> (EM Force) Earth
I don't believe the popular view of planetary gravitational/magnetic pull either. My idea is as follows.
[My Hypothesis] Planets ---> (Gravi. Force) Sun ---> (EM Force) Earth
In other words, the planets create tides on the Sun! Before you call it BS, let's check the following facts. It's not rigorous yet, but I bet most people don't know these facts:
[Fact 1] Very Weak Tidal Force from Other Planets to Earth
Scientists know that tidal force can cause earthquakes/volcanic activities (e.g., moonquakes, Jupiter's moon Io). However, the tidal force from other planets to earth is too small.
Ref: [link to seismo.berkeley.edu]
The tidal force of celestial objects:
Object | Mass | Dist | Relative Influence
--------- ------- ----- ------------------------
Moon 0.01228 0.38 1.00
Sun 329390 149 0.45
Venus 0.8073 41 0.000052
Jupiter 314.5 629 0.0000056
Mars 0.1065 79 0.00000096
Mercury 0.0549 91 0.00000033
Saturn 94.07 1277 0.00000020
Clearly, the tidal force of all the other planets on earth is 4~8 magnitude SMALLER than moon. However, we can find a totally different picture by inspecting the tidal force of planets to Sun discussed in [Fact 4].
[Fact 2] Strong Correlation between Planetary Alignment and Mega Earthquakes Does Exist
Please examine two articles and ask yourself if it's possible to be a coincidence?
[link to www.ufo-blogger.com]
Omerbashich's paper: [link to lanl.arxiv.org] (not rigorous but inspiring)
In particular, check Table 3 of Omerbashich's paper. All of the 11 M8.6+ mega earthquakes in the past 100 years happened with an alignment involving Earth, Sun, and another planet.
If we look at the past 4 alignments that include Elenin, Earth, and Sun (twice an year), the correlation is even STRONGER.
Date | Sun Distance | Earthquake | Alignment
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A. Sep 9, 2009 | 8.5 AU | M8.1 in Sunola | Elenin-Sun-Earth-(Jupiter) (+9 days)
B. Feb 27, 2010 | 7.0 AU | M8.8 in Chile | Elenin-Earth-Sun-(Jupiter)
C. Sep 3, 2010 | 5.2 AU | M7.0 in NZ | Elenin-Sun-Mercury-Earth
D. Mar 11, 2011 | 3.1 AU | M9.0 in Japan | Elenin-Earth-Sun (-4 days)
[Fact 3] Venus barely has any magnetic field
Venus seems to play an important role in Omerbashich's paper. This fact rules out the theory that magnetic tug from other planets is the main cause of earthquakes. Besides, the magnetic field in other planets is quite complex, and it is hard to devise a simple theory.
[Fact 4] (Surprisingly) The Tidal Force of 4 Planets on Sun Have Similar Magnitude!
This is a little known but TRULY AMAZING fact given that different planets has great variance in their orbits and mass.
We use a simplified formula of gravitational gradient here:
dg( r ) / dr = -2 * g( r ) / r = -2GMm / r^3
So the relative influence of tidal force is proportional to m/r^3.
We can set Earth from 1 AU as 1.0, then I roughly calculate the relative influence (Aphelion~Perihelion)
Jupiter = 1.95~2.62
Venus = 2.11~2.20
Mercury = 0.54~1.90
Saturn = 0.092~0.128
Mars = 0.023~0.041
The result is very interesting. Remember that Mercury is only 0.055 Earth mass, and Jupiter has 318 Earth mass. It's remarkable that Jupiter and Mercury exert similar tidal force on Sun.
Moreover, the relative influence is Jupiter ~= Venus > Mercury ~= Earth >> Saturn > Mars
Please check Omerbashich's paper, there is a similar trend in the configurations of planetary alignment!
[Fact 5] Correlation between Sun Spots Cycle and Planetary Cycles
Although the correlation between planetary alignment and earthquakes is hard to prove and called as pseudo-science by the mainstream, some scientists do believe that Sun Spot cycle is related to planetary cycles. (Many already know 11-yr solar cycle is quite close to Jovian orbital period)
You can find two papers talking on it from Wiki. [link to en.wikipedia.org] In addition, I also found two related papers written in Chinese by researchers in Chinese Academy of Sciences.
[Fact 6] Additive Tidal Force Explains the Mythical Planetary Alignment
Scientists hate planetary alignment because it sounds like Astrology.
When planets and Sun form a straight line, it means the planets create "bulges" on the Sun at similar position (phase)! It's like fully constructive interference of two waves on Sun's surface. Simple science, no magic!
[Fact 7] It Also Explain Mega Earthquakes on <X>-Sun-Earth Alignment
If the earthquakes are caused by other planets directly, then we should see MUCH more <X>-Earth-Sun alignments than <X>-Sun-Earth (different distance from Earth to <X>). However, we cannot identify such pattern in Omerbashich's paper.
Curiously, lots of big earthquakes happened with <X>-Sun-Earth alignments.
We all know that tidal force will create "two bulges", one in the "near side", the other one in the "far side". That's why we have two high tides a day. This shows that <X>-Sun-Earth alignment still create a "bulge" (high tide) on Sun facing directly to Earth.
[Fact 8] Sun is a Giant Gas Star
The high tide and low tide of ocean is created by the tidal force of Moon and Sun on the thin layer of sea water covering the rigid earth crust.
Tidal force can create much bigger "bulges" on sun because sun is a gas star.
[Remarks] I don't rule out the possibility that Elenin has huge magnetic field as claimed by many. This factor is just not required to explain the earthquakes.
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WARNING! If the theory is true, what does it imply?
There were ~200 Jupiter-Earth-Sun and Jupiter-Sun-Earth alignments that happened in the past 100 years, only 3~4 have M8.6+ mega earthquakes.
On the other hand, there are 3 M8+ (including 2 M8.6+) earthquakes in the past 4 Elenin-Earth-Sun and Elenin-Sun-Earth alignments.
It may imply Elenin is heavier than Jupiter.
Moreover, unlike gravitational field that degrades by square of distance (r^-2), the tidal force degrades by cube of distance (r^-3)
In Mar 11, 2011, Elenin is 3.1 AU from the Sun. M9.0 Earthquake in Japan
In Sep 25-28, 2011, Earth-Elenin-Sun-Mercury are aligned, Elenin is 0.6 AU from the Sun
In 25-28 Sep, Elenin's tidal force on Sun will be (3.1/0.6)^3 ~= 138 TIMES compared to Mar 11, 2011!
This would make Hollywood doom movies look like a picnic.
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Some relevant Q & A under the above assumptions:
[Q] How can a celestial object heavier than Jupiter be ignored by public scientists? Sounds ridiculous.
[Ans] Because we are on GPL and discussing conspiracies. Govt may have been covering up its existence for decades and spent TRILLIONS to build bunkers! Covering up is the central idea of the whole Elenin/Planet X/Nibiru thing.
[Q] If the mechanism is really so simple, why didn't I know about it?
[Ans] The same reason. They must cover-up. Remember that they are so capable to even cover up the real economic and debt issue successfully! And the theory is not that simple if we want to write it down rigorously. I can't explain why "bulges" (high tides) on Sun facing directly to Earth will cause earthquakes.
[Q] If Elenin is really that heavy, the barycenter of our solar system should be moved far away from the currently known pos. How could we use the old barycentric coordinate but still get correct results?
[Ans] Due to its high eccentricity, Elenin had little acceleration (but high velocity) just a few years ago. Even if Elenin is heavier than Jupiter, the acceleration effect on solar system's barycenter by Elenin is quite small compared to by Jupiter until recent years. Physical laws typically work well in any (nearly) inertial frame.
[Q] What's the role of HAARP and X37B?
[Ans] I don't know. Maybe they can choose their favorite EQ locations.
[Q] Since there is no public authoritative orbital period of Elenin, could it happen to be 3,600-yrs, which is another possible geophysical cycle (in Velikovsky's book and AC 1047074) and the claimed orbital period of Planet X by Pastor F. M. Riley?
( [link to www.his-forever.com] )
[Ans] The orbit of Elenin matches F.M.R.'s description quite well: it showed up in 2010 in a small telescope, very close to earth in the last three months 2011, and will be past the earth beginning in late 2012. However, I don't know any scientific evidence backing 3,600-yrs period.
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I'm definitely not specialized in astronomy. I'm just a GLPer who wants to help connecting the dots. It's more than welcome that people with real expertise can point out errors and share ideas.
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