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Subject ***What World War Three will look like***
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Original Message THE CURRENT ALLIANCE SYSTEMS

Before hypothesizing on a third world war, it's important to understand the alliance systems in the world today. If you're talking about regional alliances, here's what we have.

ASIA: US, Japan, South Korea vs China, N.Korea & Burma

EUROPE: NATO vs Russia and Belarus

MID-EAST: US, Israel and Jordan vs Iran, Syria and Lebanon

Note: Turkey could go either way depending on reason of war.

SOUTH AMERICA: US, Brazil & Columbia vs Venezuela, Argentina


THE BEGINNING

The start of the war is likely to be sudden and frightening. It will be preceded by a single event in which the intention of the attacking nation is clear and irrefutable.

In my opinion, the war will begin on the Korean peninsula when the North Korean leadership feels that the US alliance in Asia is too distracted and occupied by events elsewhere to mount an effective counter-attack and prevent Seoul from being taken. The South Koreans are likely to relocate the capital as the DPRK forces advance.

The onslaught will dwarf that of their 1950 one, beginning with an amazingly heavy bombardment by air, land and sea but excluding the use of nuclear weapons. This is because the use of such weapons would invite retaliation in kind, with the war being over quite quickly in South Korea's favour. The US would be unlikely to use nuclear weapons against North Korea first lest they want to invite the wrath of the entire Chinese army (and nuclear rocket forces). In this respect, the US alliance would have much more to lose than the already isolated and bankrupt North Koreans.



FRANTIC EFFORTS TO AVERT WAR

During the course of the terrifying violence on the Korean peninsula the UN will be working frantically to avert an escalation of the conflict, especially to surrounding countries. However, by this time Japan will already be under missile and air attack from the North Koreans striking US air bases there. Calls to stop the war will be silenced by a Chinese veto. The reason for this will be because the Chinese will be confident of a North Korean victory, and will have secured a much-needed beach-head for eventual conflict with Japan and the US in the future.



NO TURNING BACK

With the war in full-swing, other nations including Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Russia and China will announce their entry into the war but limit their operations to logistical support for their allies. As the North Koreans push further towards Seoul there will be calls within the US congress for approval to use nuclear weapons in order to prevent the North Koreans from embarrassing US power (and giving a head-start to China for the eventual war with them). The request for use of nuclear weapons against North Korea will be rejected, at great political cost to the President. Instead, the US will use covert means of ending the war, including the use of other undisclosed weapons not previously deployed.



MAKING IT OFFICIAL

Newspapers will call it WORLD WAR THREE, anticipating more nations becoming involved due to the rapid escalation of hostilities. This notion will soon be echoed at the UN.


THE WAR

By the following month, the nations previously giving logistical support will switch to full military support for their respective allies, turning the war from regional conflict to a world war. Chinese forces will do battle with American naval vessels while Russia will use the war to invade Eastern Bloc nations siding with an increasingly hostile NATO. Knowing that the result of the war in Korea will be a game-changer, Russia will use this military operation in Eastern Europe to illustrate their position in the new order. The US, remembering the Chinese entry into the 1950-1953 war, will abstain from a full-scale invasion/landing in North Korea, preferring instead to put up a MiG corridor of its own, using F-16s and F-22s.


THE END OF THE WAR

Unable to abandon its economically critical duties in the Middle East the US alliance in Korea will concede temporary defeat and begin withdrawing, relocating to Japan where they will vow to finish the war. This will be wishful thinking as the new strategic Russian and Chinese gains prove any efforts to push the enemy back futile. Barring the use of nuclear weapons (and a global nuclear holocaust) the war will be over once the North Koreans enter the South Korean capital. At that moment, the Chinese will move in to reinforce the North Korean positions guarding their new unified peninsula.
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