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Tropical Depression AL12 (KATIA)
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[quote:Otherness:MV8xNjE2MTU0XzI2ODgxNDgzX0ZCOEFFOEUz] Update 10:18AM EST September 7th, 2011 With regard to the current atmospheric conditions in Texas, over the East Coast and the Atlantic, here is what I am currently researching: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2392.1 [b]Abstract[/b] A linear mixed layer model that skillfully reproduces observed surface winds and convergence over the tropical oceans is used to examine the relative influence of boundary layer and free-tropospheric processes on the distribution of climatological surface winds and convergence. The semiempirical model assumes a subcloud-layer momentum force balance between pressure gradients, Coriolis acceleration, linearized friction, and downward momentum mixing, and it utilizes boundary conditions from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Observed pressure gradients are linearly decomposed into boundary layer (defined as the region below 850 hPa) and free-tropospheric components, and the surface winds and convergence associated with these components are computed. Results show that surface zonal winds are predominantly associated with a combination of free-tropospheric pressure gradients and downward momentum mixing, whereas the distribution of convergence is primarily due to boundary layer temperature gradients, which are closely related to SST gradients. The authors conclude that the climatological distribution of boundary layer convergence is primarily a function of the pattern of SST gradients and is better regarded as a cause rather than a consequence of deep convection. Some good reading! This sheds light on some interesting possibilities. Check out some of the recent MPEG's from the East and West CONUS. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ The Infrared shows an [b]interesting region[/b] from the lower part of South Carolina down to the top half of Florida. Also pay attention to how the flow as it relates to the movement in the South West Gulf, which is feeding into the movement over Texas. Tie in KATIA to the picture with the influx of air from the North. It will be interesting how these boundary layers will coalesce! Otherness [/quote]
Original Message
Irene may have only been a warm up, keep an eye on this one.
[
link to global-newstoday.blogspot.com
]
It is expected to reach Typhoon II. stage by September 3rd, tracking at 270 degrees.
[
link to hisz.rsoe.hu
]
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