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08:05 AM
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Iraq an economic Study
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[quote:calin:MV8xNzI0NTM4XzM4NTI1NDI5XzUwMjA1NDU2] [quote:ReVbo™:MV8xNzI0NTM4XzM4NTIxNTM0X0I5MkFFNENB] Rate speculation was getting a little out of control on DinarAlert, so I wrote this just to remind everyone there just how little we actually know about how this is going to happen. It's a far cry from my $6-something from last year, but hey, I'm a year older and, hopefully, a bit wiser now. Revbo: That would make for a great exercise, HandOverFist. I'm gonna give it a shot, just for the heck of it, even though I'm probably way off... If, as tlar says, they've got the existing dinar backed at 2.5 times, that means they can go to 466.4 dinars to a dollar right now if they want to back it at 1 dollar of reserves for every dinar outstanding (1166/2.5). We know that no central bank keeps a 1:1 reserve for its outstanding currency, though, so no one go jump off a building thinking you're only going to make a paltry 250% return on this investment just yet. They could go to a fractional reserve standard of 10% reserves, in which case, you can multiply the previous number by 10 and get 46.6 dinars to the dollar,or about 2.14 cents to a dinar, or about a 2500% return on investment. That's all assuming, of course, the published numbers are real, and I doubt that they are. I don't trust any of their numbers and only some of their news, so I have no idea what to believe. This is just speculation, but there have been indications that CBI is going to change the standard, when the dinar goes international, to some kind of backing that involves more than just the $75 billion in the CBI vault, which would change the game entirely. Let's say, just for the sake of argument, Iraq has $10 trillion worth of gold in the ground and they use that to back a hypothetical 33 trillion dinars outstanding and they back it at 10%. If they do that, you get your $3.33 overnight. I don't think that's going to happen, but like I said, just an exercise. My point is, we don't know what we don't know, and there is no way we can possibly know how this is going to go down. Even Kap, who has inside information, admits he could end up being wrong about the free float from 1166. If they change the standard and back it with $10 trillion worth of gold or $5 trillion worth of oil or $2.5 trillion worth of sand, camels and belly dancers, a free float would gap up on the first day like nobody has ever seen, so it'd be pretty much the exact same thing as a straight revaluation. [/quote] Nice speculation explanation Rev! [/quote]
Original Message
Iraq is rapidly becoming a force in world economics due to its oil reserves. What do you think the effects will be on the world economic stage. sk
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