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Subject TEXAS SEVERE WEATHER: Overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday - Complete Details -
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Original Message A storm system that is moving through the Desert Southwest is going to enter the Texas area on Tuesday afternoon. Storms ahead of the front are not as much of a concern as the ones overnight and into Wednesday morning.

Residents across Central and Southern Texas will need to be on the lookout for further TWS Tornado Watch products. These may be needed overnight Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

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For what I can see an upper level trough will dig down into Northern Mexico on Tuesday night. This will enhance the upper air ascent along the Rio Grande, with upper divergence and a frontal zone moving eastward from there through San Antonio and points southward.

A mesolow scenario is developing as we will have a strong upper level jet in the area, combined with strong backing southeast winds. This promotes a damaging wind scenario, likely a moderate risk tornado and wind damaging event.

This mesolow will be the key to tornado development. The mesolow will be around San Antonio, TX overnight on Tuesday, and into Wednesday morning before sunrise. The storms may form a broken line, with embedded supercell activity. Cells just to the east and south of the mesolow center will be the most tornadic.

Since directional shear is not really present, this event will be an embedded tornado scenario, likely without an isolated cell along the front.

Storms will form ahead of it through the Southeastern Texas coast on Wednesday morning.

The situation will be monitored over the day on Tuesday, a final outlook and needed TWS Tornado Watch product will also be figured out then as well, either later afternoon or evening. Since the activity with the mesolow is expected overnight, an evening TWS Tornado Watch issue would be expected.

This activity will move east through Southeastern Texas on Wednesday.
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