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REPLY TO THREAD
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Subject
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Ron Paul MUST win TEXAS or CALIFORNIA or Paul will NOT be the Republican nominee!!!
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Original Message
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Ron Paul is at 326-350 delegates right now!
I base my delegate research off the assumption that Ron Paul will continue to do well in the ongoing caucus state conventions:


I've got Ron Paul projected at 326-350 delegates.

I've got Mitt Romney projected at 600-610 delegates.


There are 737 delegates remaining. Romney needs 541 of those to win. Which means, Ron Paul needs 197 of those delegates to block an automatic bid for Romney.

Paul should do well in the non-allocating caucuses of Nebraska and Montana. Paul should be able to pull about 45-55 delegates from there. Which means, of the remaining states, Paul would need 147 (give or take) delegates to block an automatic Romney nomination.


Looking at the rest of the states, and how the rest are primaries (since I've already accounted for the two remaining caucuses), the chances aren't great that Ron Paul could poll high enough in those primaries to take 147 delegates.

 In fact, if Ron Paul's campaign continues with their current strategy they've been using for the entire election process, Romney will win the remaining primaries.
This is why I think they should now go "all-in" on Texas and California. The campaign has been operating under a safe and sure philosophy -- which is why it's at in the place it is now. 

However, it's the 4th quarter with 2:00 minutes remaining. And we're down by six points. We can't continue going down the field and hitting the field goal. We now have to air it out. While that's not our strength, it's now or never.


Texas is proportional and you need to hit it hard, as there's 155 delegates up for grab. The campaign has $1.5 million cash on hand and can get get more by just asking. Paul's realistic goal needs to be winning Texas. Texans love their heritage, and Paul being a Texan is a plus there -- which is why I like his latest Texas ad. But just like most people, Texans also follow the herd. Another ad showing the wins in Iowa, Minnesota, Louisiana, Washington, Maine, and Alaska (soon to be more)...and show them that they're being mislead...throw in the Warren G. Harding reference...brokered convention...let people know that Ron Paul does have a shot. Most people won't vote for Paul if they think there vote will be wasted. This is my opinion from interacting with other voters. It's an unfortunate truth. They must convey the message that a vote will not be wasted to Texans.


California is a winner take all. Obviously more difficult. I wouldn't advice dumping too many resources here, as the reward could be nothing. However, I would definitely test the water at least, and if there's any optimism, I wouldn't be hesitant to get active in that state. Remember, we're not in position to run the ball on 3rd and 10 and settle for a field goal anymore.


Keep with the caucus strategy, but the strategy needs to be changed in regards to California and Texas. Those are the key. If Paul wins one of those, it will be the nail in the coffin for a brokered convention -- especially California.

 It's time to go all in. If Ron Paul doesn't win California or Texas...Ron Paul will NOT get enough delegates and Romney will win the nomination.
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