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Subject Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?

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Original Message Some people on GLP predict earthquakes. When they do you need to account for pure chance. I publish dates I expect to see a significant quake. I always use a 3 day window including the target date plus or minus a day.

Odds of an earthquake within a 3 day window:

43% = On USGS Significant quake list = Recent study 209 quake dates/493 days
43% = Magnitude 6.3 or greater = 1 within 7 days x 3 / 7 days
21% = Magnitude 6.8 or greater = 1 within 14 days x 3 / 14 days
10% = Magnitude 7.1 or greater = 1 within 30 days x 3 / 30 days

I am testing 2 theories for predicting specific dates with higher probability of a significant quake based on a study past patterns:

1) NEO Count: I have determined that the more near earth objects making a close approach to Earth on any given date then there is a higher likelihood of a quake: Thread: AMAZING new discovery... earthquakes influenced by asteroids!

May 19, 2012 had 8 NEOs on that date. The result was significant quake in Italy on May 20th plus overall increase in rumblings during May 18 to May 20 window. See above link for other past dates with high NEO count and results. Hits = 78%

2) NEO History: When an asteroid has a consistent recent history of earthquakes within a day of past close approach dates then there is a higher likelihood of a quake. When I find these I post the object’s name and related history. Over past few months I identified and posted 6 potential quake dates based on NEO history and 4 had significant quakes within a day = 67%

I will post high probability dates as I identify them. Have fun watching me HIT or FAIL with these dates.

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