Users Online Now:
1,811
(
Who's On?
)
Visitors Today:
905,987
Pageviews Today:
1,558,415
Threads Today:
612
Posts Today:
11,477
05:15 PM
Directory
Adv. Search
Topics
Forum
Back to Forum
Back to Thread
REPLY TO THREAD
Subject
Big EARTHQUAKE to hit today? What are the odds?
User Name
Font color:
Default
Dark Red
Red
Orange
Brown
Yellow
Green
Olive
Cyan
Blue
Dark Blue
Indigo
Violet
Black
Font:
Default
Verdana
Tahoma
Ms Sans Serif
In accordance with industry accepted best practices we ask that users limit their copy / paste of copyrighted material to the relevant portions of the article you wish to discuss and no more than 50% of the source material, provide a link back to the original article and provide your original comments / criticism in your post with the article.
[quote:TheTruthWorker:MV8xODc2NDA0XzMxNTk5NjU2XzhDQzgxMjRG] [quote:TheTruthWorker:MV8xODc2NDA0XzMxNTc1MTczXzNFM0Q5MzFF] Location? Post by AwakeinTassie in ELQ thread may point to an event in Chile or South America next. Looking at recent quake map also shows lack of release compared to rest of ring of fire. [/quote] Ooops! Posted to wrong thread... quote at http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1888053/pg3#31599605 [/quote]
Original Message
Some people on GLP predict earthquakes. When they do you need to account for pure chance. I publish dates I expect to see a significant quake. I always use a 3 day window including the target date plus or minus a day.
Odds of an earthquake within a 3 day window:
43% = On USGS Significant quake list = Recent study 209 quake dates/493 days
43% = Magnitude 6.3 or greater = 1 within 7 days x 3 / 7 days
21% = Magnitude 6.8 or greater = 1 within 14 days x 3 / 14 days
10% = Magnitude 7.1 or greater = 1 within 30 days x 3 / 30 days
I am testing 2 theories for predicting specific dates with higher probability of a significant quake based on a study past patterns:
1) NEO Count:
I have determined that the more near earth objects making a close approach to Earth on any given date then there is a higher likelihood of a quake:
Thread: AMAZING new discovery... earthquakes influenced by asteroids!
May 19, 2012 had 8 NEOs on that date. The result was significant quake in Italy on May 20th plus overall increase in rumblings during May 18 to May 20 window. See above link for other past dates with high NEO count and results. Hits = 78%
2) NEO History:
When an asteroid has a consistent recent history of earthquakes within a day of past close approach dates then there is a higher likelihood of a quake. When I find these I post the object’s name and related history. Over past few months I identified and posted 6 potential quake dates based on NEO history and 4 had significant quakes within a day = 67%
I will post high probability dates as I identify them. Have fun watching me HIT or FAIL with these dates.
Pictures (click to insert)
General
Politics
Bananas
People
Potentially Offensive
Emotions
Big Round Smilies
Aliens and Space
Friendship & Love
Textual
Doom
Misc Small Smilies
Religion
Love
Random
View All Categories
|
Next Page >>