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Subject TORNADO WATCH TO NEW YORK!!! Possible tornado headed towards Aurora, N.C. within the next ten minutes!!!

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[quote:Anonymous Coward 24007675:MV8xOTkzMDM4XzMzNDc4MDU2XzNDOURGNUZF]
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a tornado watch for much of the surrounding area, including Monmouth and Ocean Counties. The watch is in effect until 7 p.m. tonight

After a beautiful start to the week, the National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting plenty of wet weather for the next few days.

Starting from Monday night into Tuesday morning there is at least a 40 percent chance of scattered showers before the bulk of the storm is scheduled to arrive in our area.

The NWS predicts the showers could develop into thunderstorms after 2 p.m. which could bring "gusty winds and heavy rain." With temperatures in the 80's and wind getting as high as 26 MPH it should make for an interesting day on the roads. Wind gusts could also get up to 43 MPH over the course of the day.

The rain is expected to last through Tuesday night with the strong winds winding down by Wednesday while the showers are likely to continue. The temperature will also start to lower on Wednesday with a high of only around 71 predicted for the day.

Once this storm passes the rest of the week should be nice again with sunny weather and highs in the 70's until at least Friday.
http://redbank.patch.com/articles/wet-weather-could-make-for-messy-middle-of-the-week-94b8c3ad
[/quote]

Original Message AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1150 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
EAST. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH
COVERAGE AT TIMES BECOMING SCATTERED. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AND THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN RESPONSE TO WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MADE IT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AND PICKING UP IN
SPEED SO THE 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS
ENTRANCE.

THERE WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS PARENT LOW DEEPENS
FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS SHOWN BY 850-500MB Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AND ALONG WITH THIS...THE INCREASED
SHEAR AND INCREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE. WINDS WILL GUST
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS. LCLS WILL ALSO LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING SO WITH THE SHEAR AND ROTATION POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING.

&&
[link to forecast.weather.gov]

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