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05:35 PM
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Obama/Romney Polls Skewed - NOT
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[quote:Anonymous Coward 24401954:MV8xOTk3Nzk2XzMzNTk3NjM5XzlBQkRBNUU3] [quote:Super Bowl Dave:MV8xOTk3Nzk2XzMzNTk3Mzc5X0Y4MUFBMjA4] [b] They're using 2008 turnout models for likely voters. [/b] That's the issue. No way there will be 2008 Democrat turnout this time around. I'm not necessarily endorsing this web site, but it's worth a look: http://www.unskewedpolls.com/ [/quote] No, they're not. Some are using 2008 models and some are using 2010 models. Some count registered voters and some count 'likely' voters. Some count cell phones and some don't. But Dean Chambers is 100% full of shit and ALL the polls except for Rasmussen and Gallup show big Obama leads everywhere. By the way Dave, how's your application for foodstamps coming along? Still collecting that unemployment insurance that the GOP opposes? [/quote]
Original Message
All over GLP we see the conspiracytards claiming that the Obama/Romney polls are wrong because democrats are being oversampled.
OK conspiracytards, I'm going to educate you. Let me start out by saying that I support Romney. I didn't vote for Obama - either time (just sent in my absentee ballot for this time). But you guys need to stop embracing this "skewed poll" delusion by learning about STATISTICS.
Polls are done by stratified random samples. If a poll is done right, the political affiliation percentage of the SAMPLE GROUP will approximate the percentage of the POPULATION.
Currently, approximately 35% of people are registered democrat and 27% republican. Since most polls sample REGISTERED VOTERS, that means THEY WILL NATURALLY SAMPLE MORE DEMOCRATS.
There IS NOT PURPOSEFUL SKEW. THE SKEW IS THERE BECAUSE ITS REALITY. AND IN REALITY, REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTER FOR OBAMA.
There is no cheating going on with the polls, the public is just too stupid to understand how statistics actually work.
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