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A Rare Occurrence In The Saudi Currency Market Tells You That Trouble Is Brewing In The Middle East
Ms Sans Serif
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[quote:Anonymous Coward 1211168:MV8yMDA3NzIwXzMzNzM0NDM5XzUzMjdDQzEz] Via The Lede and Business Insider, which has an eye-popping graph showing what’s happening to the rial right now. We’ve all got debate fee-vah tonight but I want to put this on your radar screen in case things start to spiral in Tehran. The point of nuclear sanctions was to put Iran’s economy in a vise so that public discontent would force the regime to either back down on uranium enrichment or risk destabilization from within. Here’s a destabilizing tremor now: Clashes and at least one spontaneous protest erupted in Tehran on Wednesday over the plunging value of Iran’s currency, as black-market money-changers fought with riot police who were dispatched to shut them down, and hundreds of angry citizens demonstrated near the capital’s sprawling merchant bazaar, where many shops had closed for the day. The official media reported an unspecified number of arrests including two Europeans. The clashes were the first instance of a violent intervention over the money-changing business in Tehran since the currency, the rial, which had been gradually losing value in recent years, dropped drastically over the past week, losing 40 percent of its worth against the dollar, to a record low… “They spend billions of dollars to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power, but now they say they have no money!,” one garment seller screamed as he was cheered on by others, witnesses reported. A team from Iran’s state television was nearly attacked when its reporter turned to the camera saying that the people behind him had been upset over a robbery. http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/03/protest-breaks-out-in-iran-as-currency-crumbles-under-sanctions/ [youtube]http://youtu.be/pBXp5sMFr_4[/youtube] [youtube]http://youtu.be/Ljg4TZktuKQ[/youtube] [/quote]
An important shift is developing in Saudi Arabian currency derivatives markets as Iran becomes engulfed in populist protests amid hyperinflationary pressures and armed conflict breaks out between Turkey and Syria, heightening concerns about tensions in the Middle East.
The 12-month forward rate on the Saudi Arabian riyal – or the difference between how many riyals traders think a dollar will be able to buy a year from now versus how many riyals a dollar can buy today – has been hovering just above zero for the past two weeks.
In other words, as pointed out by BNP's Bartosz Pawlowski, traders are expecting the riyal to depreciate against the dollar.
And that is something that almost never happens – unless markets are getting really worried about Saudi Arabia, one of the most stable countries in the region.
link to www.businessinsider.com
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