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BREAKING REPORT: Iran Can Achieve Enough Weapons-Grade Uranium to Make Nuke Bomb in 2 Months!! Airlines Suspending Flights to Iran
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IRAN’S EVOLVING BREAKOUT POTENTIAL
William C. Witt, Christina Walrond, David Albright, and Houston Wood 1
[link to isis-online.org]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
If Iran decided to build nuclear weapons, it could use its existing safeguarded nuclear facilities and nuclear materials to produce weapon-grade uranium (WGU, uranium enriched to 90 percent U-235). This report evaluates scenarios, commonly called “breakout” or “dash” scenarios, by which Iran could produce enough WGU for one or more nuclear weapons. The authors use one significant quantity (SQ), defined as 25 kilograms of WGU, to represent the amount of WGU needed for a nuclear weapon. The report estimates minimum breakout times given Iran’s capabilities as of the August 2012 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards Report on Iran and given its expected future capabilities when it may have a much larger stock of near 20 percent low enriched uranium (LEU). The authors utilize computer simulations which model Iran’s enrichment infrastructure, accounting for performance limitations specific to its first generation IR-1 centrifuges and their arrangement into cascades. The breakout scenarios involve the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant and the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, Iran’s two production-scale declared gas centrifuge plants.
Current Breakout Potential
Based on the size of Iran’s LEU stockpiles as of August 2012, ISIS estimates that Iran would require at least two months in the fastest case to dash to one significant quantity of WGU.
The estimate is at least 2.3-4.1 months if Iran’s stock of near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride is taken as 91 kg, and at least 2.0-2.5 months if this stock is 25 kg greater. These estimates assume a breakout at the Natanz FEP. In an earlier ISIS calculation from the first part of 2012, the breakout estimate at Natanz was four months.
The shorter estimate given in this report reflects Iran’s improved cascade operations and its additional stored LEU, particularly its near 20 percent LEU hexafluoride
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