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Mitt Romney will lose the Presidential Election. With Stats.
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Original Message
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Here is why Mitt Romney will lose the presidential election on Nov. 6th. The precise reason will be that Gov. Romney, does not have a legitimate electoral path to victory. Now, here is why.
Ohio- To succeed in winning the election. Gov. Romney must pull of the trifecta of the big swing states. Those being Fla., Va., and OH. To lose even one of these states is the end of Romney's hopes of becoming president. While Romney has improved his standing and now leads in polling of Fla, and Va. His momentum has not translated into a polling lead in the state of Ohio. Even Rasmussen, who has the most republican friendly polling model, shows the President with a modest +1 lead. While a recent PPP poll of Ohio, a democrat friendly polling company, shows Obama with a +5 advantage. The most frightening statistic for republicans coming from that poll being that 19% who responded. Indicated that they had already voted. With the President garnering 76% of those votes already cast. Gov. Romney led in that poll with those who said that they were planning on voting on election day by a margin of 51%-45%. So I decided that I would extrapolate these polls to try and decide the outcome of the election.
So I went back and checked the vote totals from the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections in Ohio. I found that in 2008 there were 5,721,374 ballots cast in Ohio, and that represented a turn out of 67%. While in 2004, a big year for republicans, there were about 5,625,000 ballots cast and that represented 65% turn out( [link to en.wikipedia.org] So I took both positions. The common conservative cry that turn out will be more like 2004 this year, and also the common polling formula for turn out expectation, 65% and 67% respectively. Lets start with the PPP, poll.
[link to www.publicpolicypolling.com]
This is the poll that shows Obama with a +5 advantage over Romney in Ohio. Even though the poll says that with people planning on voting on election day. Romney leads by a six point margin 51%-45%. The problem is that 19% of those surveyed indicated that they had already voted. With the president enjoying a healthy 76%-24%, advantage. Using the 65% model we get about 5,700,000 expected total voters in Ohio. If 19%, of those have already voted. That represents 1,083,000 votes, and 76% of that is 823,080. The remaining 24% would be a total of 259,920 votes. Giving the president a massive advantage. However, Gov. Romney led with election day voters 51-45%. The remaining pool of voters is now 4,617,000, as we remove the early voters. Gov. Romney garner 51% of this pool, which represents 2,354,670 votes. While Obama's 45% gives him a total of 2,077,650 votes. Making the final tally including early voting-
Obama-2,900,730
Romney-2,614,590
This represents a 5% victory for President Obama. Quite similar to his defeat of John McCain in Ohio in 2008.
Now for the Rasmussen poll of Ohio. Which shows the president showing only a +1 lead 48-47 over Gov. Romney. Again using the 65% model for turnout that is popular with conservatives. Gives us roughly 5,700,000 voters in Ohio this year. Giving Obama his 48%, makes his total 2,736,000. Gov. Romney's 47% garners him 2,679,000. With 3% undecided,(174,000 votes), and 2%,(114,000) favoring another candidate. Lets assume that everything falls Romney's way and a full 2/3, of this undecided pool of 174,000 vote for him. That accounts for 112,860 votes, and 58,140 for the President. Making the final tally for the Rasmussen poll:
Obama-2,794,140
Romney-2,791,860
So therefore, giving Romney his dream situation. Having the Rasmussen polling model, having a 2004 turn out year, and having undecided voters break by a 2-1 margin in his favor doesnt win Romney Ohio. Obama takes Ohio by a razor thin margin, and thats giving Romney everything he would dream of going right for him in Ohio on election day.
In conclusion, Romney is dead in the water without Ohio. So all the wishful thinking in the world isnt gonna change that. Feel free to dispute my numbers with those of your own, but be serious about it. Also, many might say that there is a path to victory for Romney without Ohio. This is technically correct. But I will be back later with an update on Nevada using the same formula. Showing how Romney is very unlikely to win this election.
[link to www.270towin.com]
sources:
[link to www.publicpolicypolling.com]
[link to www.rasmussenreports.com]
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
[link to en.wikipedia.org]
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