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Subject **GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

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[quote:Anonymous Coward 11748204:MV8yMDMzMTQzXzM0MTczODYzX0VDNTFGMDJC]
[quote:Wonkish:MV8yMDMzMTQzXzM0MTczODE5XzQzQzU4RkYy]
[quote:Judethz:MV8yMDMzMTQzXzM0MTczNzkzXzYwOTVBQkQ5]
[quote:Wonkish:MV8yMDMzMTQzXzM0MTczNjA3X0I3RjhCRUJF]

Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew.
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:kitty:  Well that's clear as mud.
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It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material.
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You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup.
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Original Message [link to www.breitbart.com]

Sounds like a nothing story, right?

Except waaaaay at the bottom we learn this:

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

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