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HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN HIT EAST COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW!!!
Ms Sans Serif
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[quote:Luisport:MV8yMDM5MzAyXzM0MzAyNzc4X0E3RUZBNUE0] [color=red][b]SYSTEMS MERGING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NOR'EASTER MOVING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST ========================================= PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FROM A SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED ONE LARGE, PHASED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO A PATTERN SHOWING GREATER SEPARATION ALOFT/MORE STREAMS OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WHICH HAS CAUSED A SURFACE LOW TRACK WHICH HAS WAVERED FROM FAIRLY OFFSHORE (THEN INTO MAINE) TO A MORE COASTAL TRACK BACK TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK (INCLUDING MAINE) OVER THE PAST SIX DAYS. BINARY/FUJIWARA INTERACTION IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WHICH DROPS CONFIDENCE TO BELOW AVERAGE AS THIS TYPE OF INTERACTION CAN CREATE MODERATE TO LARGE RUN-TO-RUN AND DAY-TO-DAY DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE UNTIL THE PROCESS IS UNDERWAY. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 12Z UKMET SHOWING THE QUICKEST/MOST EASTERLY SOLUTION WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THIS CYCLONE. THERE IS NO STABLE FEATURE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TO HELP DETERMINE ITS LATITUDE IN A TELECONNECTION SENSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. DEPTH-WISE, ITS TRACK NEAR THE GULF STREAM INTO WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY LOW PRESSURE, ULTIMATELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 980S HPA (BUT WELL SHY OF SANDY'S VERY LOW PRESSURE). A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS (WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER CENTRAL PRESSURE) REMAINS THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.[/b][/color] [/quote]
continuation of this thread:
Thread: Hybrid Storm like Sandy Can Hit The East Coast By Wednesday!!! (Page 22)
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