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REPLY TO THREAD
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how to tell if Romney is winning, as early as 7pm EST
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Original Message
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first indication: Virginia. it can tell us a lot.
the first polls in the nation to close are Virginia at 7pm EST
Romney must win Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and 1 more swing state to reach 270 electoral votes. Obama, on the other hand, doesn't need Virginia so badly.
if the results are a "landslide" they may call the election before 7pm.
if the results are too close to call, they may be counting votes throughout the night, and "too close to call" at 7pm it means that the other swing states will probably also be a close and Romney is in trouble.
Obama doesn't need Virginia to win like Romney does. however if Obama loses Virginia by 2 points or more then Obama is in serious trouble.
next indication: North Carolina at 7:30pm EST
last time Obama won North Carolina because of a huge turnout of young black voters. how well Obama does this time would be a litmus test for how much "black vote" Obama is getting nationwide.
if Romney loses North Carolina he will probably lose similar states like Ohio and Colorado, and a few other swing states. a loss in North Carolina is the biggest indication that Romney is going to lose the election.
if Romney wins by 3 points, it is a very positive sign that he will win what he needs in the swing states and win the election.
next indication: New Hampshire at 8pm EST
Romney and Obama can both afford to lose New Hampshire. but what this one tells us is that if the count is too close to call right away, Obama is in trouble. if Obama is losing by 2 points or more he will probably do bad in the swing states, and he is really in trouble.
New Hampshire predicts what will probably happen in Iowa, which is a swing state.
most important swing states:
Virginia
North Carolina
New Hampshire
the rest of the swing states:
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
Ohio
Wisconsin
here is what a sampling looked like before the polls opened today. it wasn't good for Romney.
------------Popular--------Electoral
State---Obama---Romney---Obama---Romney
VA------48.0%---47.7%----13------0
NC------46.2%---49.2%----0-------15
NH------49.9%---47.9%----4-------0
CO------48.8%---47.3%----9-------0
FL------48.2%---49.7%----0-------29
IA------48.7%---46.3%----6-------0
NV------50.2%---47.4%----6-------0
OH------50.0%---47.1%----18------0
WI------50.4%---46.2%----10------0
Swing-State Electoral Votes- Obama, 66 Romney, 44
Red/Blue State Electoral Votes- Obama, 237 Romney, 191
Total State Electoral Votes- Obama, 303 Romney, 235
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