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UPDATE Dec 10: Damn...its time to start paying attenion to Patrick Geryl (i hate saying that). M7.4 in Guatemala...just like he said...again.
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[quote:MatrixLNIN11:MV8yMDQyODQ1XzM0NTc4NjQwXzI5OEMxMjlE] [quote:Anonymous Coward 13806508:MV8yMDQyODQ1XzM0NTE4NTQzXzNEODMwOERF] If you look at the math on this there are 15 quakes a year 7.0 or bigger. That's one every 24 days. So with a two day window of prediction that gives you a one in 12 chance of being right just by random selection. Additionally, there are 7.0 + quakes that he is not predicting.[/quote] Then perhaps you should check out the warnings I've put out that have hit ALL 7+ mags in 2012 and even 2011. But either way, if you think its no big deal to pick a date for a MAJOR or M7+ and have one hit within 1-3 days over and over, LETS SEE YOU DO BETTER or show anyone that has. lol GOOD LUCK with that one! [quote:Anonymous Coward 13806508:MV8yMDQyODQ1XzM0NTE4NTQzXzNEODMwOERF] If you go below 7.0 there are 134 earthquakes a year between 6 and 6.9. [/quote] PLEASE SHOW PROOF for that CLAIM because your premise is FALSE. Lets see if you can figure out why. [quote:Anonymous Coward 13806508:MV8yMDQyODQ1XzM0NTE4NTQzXzNEODMwOERF] If you go with a two day window on those you have a 74 percent chance of being right just with random selection.[/quote] BULLSHIT. please support that claim with a far better evidenced-based argument. So far you're cherry-picking and skirting total context and actual evidence for each case. [quote:Anonymous Coward 13806508:MV8yMDQyODQ1XzM0NTE4NTQzXzNEODMwOERF] Of course the real test is the 10 that he's predicting for December. We'll know soon enough. [/quote] Now that i might agree with somewhat. I predict 8+ possible 9+ Either way though BIG QUAKE 7+ MINIMUM GUARANTEED but thats not including what might be described as a DIMENSIONAL SHIFT... which most technically won't even be aware of anyways. ;-) [/quote]
So the first time I heard Geryl talk it was in regards to Dec 21, 2012, and I thought he was out to lunch. His expectations were waaaayyy too doomish, even for an everyday GLPer.
However, since then I've been reading up on his on-going EQ perdictions associated with different planetary allignments, and holy shit has he been accurate.
This M7.4 today was the final straw for me. He called it, and once again was dead on the money of both timing and size.
link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com
Just freakin' me out a little as I live close to the ocean (very close) and we are only 43+ days until Dec 21st.
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