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05:15 PM
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Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England!!!
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[quote:Anonymous Coward 27392586:MV8yMDQ0MTA0XzM0MzcxMjc4X0MyNzUzMEQ3] [b]TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN[/b] [/quote]
Original Message
529. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin)
01:07 PM GMT em 08 de Novembro de 2012
Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.
Jeff Masters
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