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12:27 PM
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EQ 6.1 CHILE
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[quote:Anonymous Coward 9253046:MV8yMDU5NTYxXzM0NjQ0OTE4XzZGNzBEODkx] [quote:Anonymous Coward 27116573:MV8yMDU5NTYxXzM0NjQ0ODQxXzZBMTlGRTQ3] [quote:Anonymous Coward 9253046:MV8yMDU5NTYxXzM0NjQ0NzQ2X0ZGMjEyQ0Q5] [quote:Anonymous Coward 9253046:MV8yMDU5NTYxXzM0NjQ0MzMzX0M3MDNFNjRE] [quote:Anonymous Coward 1834146:MV8yMDU5NTYxXzM0NjQzNzg0XzIwNEQzQTQw] that guy was right. dont know what thread it was in. +/- day nov 20 = 6+ nov 22 = 6.5+ nov 28 = 7 dec 4-5 = 7+ dec 11 = 7+ dec 17-18= 8+ dec 21 = 10+ :5a::5a::5a::5a::5a::5a::5a: [/quote] The guy's name is Patrick Geryl and there are several threads on GLP if you search by Geryl. Some man from Greece did an odds calculation as far as Geryl being right, and it was something like 1 in 500,000. (I could be wrong about that, but I will try to find it and post it here.) [/quote] Okay, I found the thread, [u]Right On Cue, a 6.8 earthquake[/u]. I posted the following (in italics) on November 16, five days ago: [i] According to Wikipedia, 100-150 6.0-6.9 earthquakes happen each year. (Info follows in italics.) Any mathematicians on line want to calculate what the odds are for Geryl's accuracy to date, and what the odds will be that he will be right November 20 +/- one day? (I don't know enough to argue that he IS right, but I would guess that he is beating the odds. And, yes, I have always held with the conventional and scientific opinion that earthquakes CANNOT be predicted, but . . . ) 6.0–6.9 Strong VI to X Can be damaging/destructive in populated areas. Damage to many to all buildings; poorly designed structures incur moderate to severe damage. Earthquake-resistant structures survive with slight to moderate damage. Most likely felt hundreds of miles/kilometers from the epicenter. Can be damaging further from the epicenter; up to tens of miles/kilometers away. Death toll between none and 25,000. 100 to 150 per year [/i] Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9253046 An AC from Greece replied at 2:47 p.m. on 11/17, if youwant to verify: [b]Let's calculate that one...As far as i know for sure, Patrick hit at least 3 of the last 4 Major 7+ quakes...there are about 15 total in a year, which means 1,25 a month. To predict one correctly with a 1-day span gives a chance of 4,1%. For a 2-day span goes to 8.2%. So, assuming 2 of each groups for the ones he hit, total possibility of 3 consequitive 7+ mag quakes is 0,02%. About the 6+ quakes he hit: I'm assuming the lowest number that we can verify he hit here, are about 4. There are about 125 6+ quakes a year, which means around 34% chance for one to occur in one day. Therefore, hiting 4 of them consequitively, has a chance of happening around 1,33%. Now if we multiply both the 7+ and 6+ chance, we get an abysmal chance of 0,000266% of happening! That doesn't mean of course that Geryl is 100% right about his whole theory, but that his eq-theory and the way he predicts them actually works.[/b] (end quote) I guess we will just have to wait and see if there is Patrick is right again on November 22 (or 23). [/quote] One problem with all that crap you just posted .. it was actually a 5.9 quake! [/quote] No need to get nasty!! When I was trying to find the thread, I didn't know that it had been downgraded. I just find earthquake predictions interesting and from what I have been able to learn, Geryl has a pretty good track record. Again, I am not saying that he is 100% right -- and I SAID that I didn't THINK earthquakes can be predicted, but it just makes me wonder -- so back off! (Please.) [/quote]
Original Message
6.1
2012/11/21 21:36:22 -34.002 -71.957 15.6
OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
[
link to earthquake.usgs.gov
]
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