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989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
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[quote:Anonymous Coward 33259444:MV8yMTIwMTkyXzM1ODE5MTE2XzQ2OTYzRA==] AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 406 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013 ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... .SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOLID AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EVENT (OUTBREAK) AND CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON TIMING AS KEY FEATURES EVOLVE ACROSS THE AREA. OPTED TO USE THE OUTBREAK WORDING AS THIS EVENT WILL COVER A GOOD PART OF THE NEARBY REGION (MULTIPLE CWA`S) WITH OUR CWA BEING A PART OF THE MAIN EVENT. ANOMALOUS WARMTH/MOISTURE HAVE PRIMED A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH. LOOK FOR ADDED WARMTH ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURGE OF MOISTURE TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REALLY RESPONDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING. THIS COMBO WILL LEAD TO WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE GOING WIND ADV AS IS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AND EFFECTS OF MIXING...THE ADV MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE NE CWA (N OF I-20 & E OF I-55). NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TODAY AS A STRENGTHEN CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING. THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE LATER THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL HELP REMOVE THE CAP. ALL GUID SHOWS SUCH DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH (PSEUDO-DRY LINE). THIS FEATURE HAS AND CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED WELL BY ALL GUID AND IS A CLASSIC FEATURE THAT BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SVR WX TO OUR REGION. CAN`T SAY I`VE SEEN IT IN JANUARY THOUGH. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE INTENSE WIND SHEAR WITH PROGGED 0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 400-650 M2/S2. WE USUALLY STRUGGLE TO GET ANY INSTABILITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...MUCH LESS HAVING SOME COMBINED WITH HIGH SHEAR. WELL...MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 600-900 J/KG OF MLCAPE AS LONG AS TEMPS HOLD BETWEEN 71-73 AND DEWPTS ARE 66-67. SUCH CAPE/SHEAR COMBO SUPPORTS 0-1KM EHI VALUES OF 2 TO 3 WHICH ARE QUITE HIGH. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER END EVENT WITH SIG SVR WX POSSIBLE. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING ESTABLISH OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT SVR STORMS...THE KEY ON WHAT THE AREA WILL SEE HAS TO DO WITH STORM MODE (LINEAR OR DISCRETE CELLS). MODEL DATA IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SHOWING A MIXED MODE...FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE TIME BEFORE A LINEAR MODE BECOMES DOMINATE. SOME DISCRETE ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE BY 9 PM OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING LINE. THESE STORMS WILL STORMS WILL QUICKLY LIFT NNE AND POSE A TORNADO AND DMG WIND RISK. HERE SEEMS TO BE MAIN AREA TO SUPPORT A STRONG TORNADO. AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT...THE LINE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINATE AS IT EVOLVES EASTWARD. HI-RES DATA SHOWS A LINE SEGMENT STRUCTURE OR QLCS TYPE STRUCTURES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DUE TO THIS...TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AND WE CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG ONE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. HOWEVER...DMG WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A FOCUS. DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER 5KFT...60-80 MPH TYPE WINDS MAY EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SFC WITH ANY STORM. DUE TO THIS...EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD DMG WIND EVENT ALONG WITH THE TORNADO RISK MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH ALL OF THIS...WILL UTILIZE THE GRAPHICS TO HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED RISK AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO TO MACON. AS FOR AS HEAVY RAIN...NOT TOO CONCERNED AS QUICK MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION LOOKS TO KEEP MOST PRECIP TOTALS AROUND .5 TO 1.0 INCH. STILL...RAINS WILL BE EFFICIENT AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE A VERY QUICK 1 INCH. AS FOR TIMING...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A BROAD WINDOW ACROSS THE W/NW TO CAPTURE THE PERIOD OF PRE-LINE ACTIVITY AND THEN THE ACTUAL LINE ITSELF. LOOK FOR AREAS WEST OF A KOSCIUSKO TO NATCHEZ LINE TO OCCUR BETWEEN 9PM AND 3AM. FROM 2-7AM...AREAS EAST OF A NATCHEZ TO WINONA LINE WILL SEE THE SQUALL LINE QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH. [/quote]
Original Message
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue
GFS 12z uncorks another historical strength extratropical cyclone, this time over Quebec. Remember the Cleveland SuperBomb?
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