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Massive Historic Blizzard!!! 967 mb Major Nor'easter!!! Snow already making its way into Upstate NY...
Ms Sans Serif
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[quote:Luisport:MV8yMTI4NTk5XzM1OTUzMDEzXzgxNkE4RTYx] It looks like the probability for a big outbreak early next week is not in the cards. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CST WED FEB 06 2013 VALID 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITY /AROUND 15 PERCENT/ IS EVIDENT FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH TO THE WRN GULF COAST ON D5/SUN. DECREASING PREDICTABILITY THEREAFTER RENDERS LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR D6-8. GFS/MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN INTO LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF/CMC DEPICTIONS OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY D5. THIS RENDERS INCREASED CONFIDENCE OVER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH LINGERING RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DETAILED TIMING/INTENSITY/TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. RETURN FLOW ALONG THE WRN GULF WILL COMMENCE FRI NIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD SEEMINGLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING D5 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF COAST. SUCH ABUNDANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE NEWD EXTENT OF MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...THE CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WOULD REMAIN WELL-DIVORCED FROM THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE. AS SUCH...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON D5...BUT PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR A0A 30 PERCENT ATTM. ..GRAMS.. 02/06/2013 [/quote]
GFS 12z apparently uses the groundhog as part of its data package: 10-15 day forecast froze-solid USA. [
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