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Subject 914mb CAT 4-5 Rusty Hurricane to Hit Australia!!! CAT 3 now!!! The eye just touch land

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[quote:Anonymous Coward 35132853:MV8yMTUwMjMwXzM2MzUxODAwXzYwRkRBRDNF]
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
2:43 PM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (970 hPa) located at 17.7S 119.0E or 295 km north of Port Hedland and 345 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Storm Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in southern quadrants
170 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. It has recently moved slowly to the east southeast but it is likely to resume a more southward track later this afternoon or this evening.

Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during this afternoon, possibly extending north towards Broome this evening or overnight. During Tuesday afternoon gales could extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast. There is a HIGH RISK THAT RUSTY WILL CROSS THE COAST AS A SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical tropical cyclone. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley over the next few days. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INNUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.3S 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.9S 119.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.8S 119.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 22.2S 119.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
ASCAT pass at 0139Z indicated minimum maximum winds of 50 knots and agreed with position just south of Rowley Shoals. Curved band wrap of around 0.7 to 0.8 obtained off recent VIS imagery giving DT 3.0 to 3.5. MET is 4.0based on a D trend, but PAT is 3.5. ADT is still at 3.5 and latest CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate [05Z] was around 60 knots 10-min mean. SATCON latest was 55 knots 10-min mean Final intensity estimate is 55 knots 10-min mean.

CIMSS shear estimate is southesat at around 9 knots. Environmental conditions are very favorable for intensification with strong upper level divergence and high sea surface temperatures. Steady intensification is forecast through to after 24 hours but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when convection becomes focused near the center.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.
[/quote]

Original Message [link to www.weatherzone.com.au] [link to www.weatherzone.com.au] NASA Observatory Image of the Day [link to eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov] Roughly 300 kilometers (200 miles) inland from Australias east coast, a network of rivers runs along the border between Queensland and New South Wales. In early February 2013, after flooding affected other parts of Queensland, high waters reached this region, transforming the landscape in a matter of days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASAs Terra satellite captured the top image on February 4, 2013. For comparison, the top image shows relatively normal conditions observed on January 23, 2013.<br><br>These images use a combination of visible and infrared light to better distinguish between water and land. Water varies in color from electric blue to navy. Vegetation is bright green and bare ground is earth-toned. Clouds are pale blue-green. The overall lighter color in the January 23 image may reflect drier conditions, but might simply result from a different angle of the satellite sensor. On January 23, the Weir River in southern Queensland was barely discernible. By February 4, the river had broken its banks and spread onto the surrounding floodplain, as had nearby rivers. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology warned of major river flooding in the region, including floods along the Weir and Macintyre Rivers.

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