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Subject Fukushima; Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology

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Original Message Source term estimation of atmospheric release due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations
The source term of the atmospheric release of radionuclides from the FNPP1 has been refined using observed 134Cs in the seawater collected from the Pacific Ocean and four types of numerical models.

The results indicated that the release rates of 137Cs and 131I became larger than those previously estimated for most of the period. In addition, total amounts of 131I and 137Cs discharged into the atmosphere from 5 JST on March 12 to 0 JST on May 1 were estimated to be approximately 2.0 × 1017 and 1.3 × 1016 Bq, respectively.

A comparison of the statistics obtained using the new source term with those obtained with the initial source term showed that all statistic values were improved. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of using radionuclides observed in seawater for estimating the source term of atmospheric release in case of nuclear accidents occurring in coastal areas.

The new source term obtained in this study is a first guess value; therefore, these results contain uncertainty. Various types of models that include physical processes and parameters, resolutions, and regions in addition to environmental data are needed to determine the probable source term. Detailed source term estimation obtained using the coupled atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulation remains a topic for future research.
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