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Schwassmann-Wachmann 73P; Here's what I learned about its trajectory
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Original Message
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I have spent time studying the trajectory of 73P using my "Starry Night" planetarium software. I will share with you some information about it, and perhaps we can theororize a bit.
I haven't been reading too much lately because I have been out of pocket. Please share information about any of the fragments' positions relative to the published path of the comet itself, and I will attempt to input it into the software program to see how close it might get.
Of all the comets we have looked at over time here on GLP, I would give this one the highest probability of affecting Earth. Let me explain.
The Trajectory
The best way to explain the trajectory is to build a visual analogy. Imagine you are in a race car (Earth) and are traveling on a circular racetrack, going counter-clockwise at a constant speed. At the center of the track is the sun.
73P is moving at a higher speed, and is going to pass you on the right. Thinking only in two dimensions for the moment. As 73P overtakes you, it passes in front of you from right to left, almost clipping your front-right bumper as it does. It continues across your lane and off to the left.
Now let's take it to 3-D. The approach of 73P is from slightly above, so you would have to adjust your side-view miror up just a bit to see it coming up on your right side. It is getting lower and lower as it overtakes you but does not get to your level until after it passes you way ahead and on the left.
The view would be like seeing it pass by you on the right and a little above you. As it gets directly in front of you (in your lane), it is about as high as the windshield. It continues to speed away to the left and keeps descending until it gets to ground-level, but that's a ways ahead and also a bit to the left.
To imagine the angles involved here, imagine that you are on a five lane highway, and you are driving down the middle lane. Thinking again in two-dimensions. It would be like 73P begins to move out of the far-right-hand lane about ten car-lengths back. If it wasn't for the fact that it was moving faster than you, it would side-swipe you, but since it is moving faster, it just misses your front bumper. Taking it to 3-D again, it would appear that the 73P is traveling above the ground about 20 feet off the ground. As it overtakes you because of its speed, it is about 10 feet off the ground as it gets even with you, about five feet as it crosses in front of you, and gets to ground level up ahead about ten car-lenghts ahead and in the far left lane.
I hope I have explained the trajectory sufficiently. There is cause to watch this closely.
More in a moment...
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