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Subject Mercury, Comet ISON and 2P Encke- Possible fragmentation event

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[quote:Dr. Astro:MV8yMzg5NjUwXzQwOTEwMzk4XzQ1NTk5NTVB]
[quote:Anonymous Coward 47820629:MV8yMzg5NjUwXzQwOTA5OTQ4X0JEMDgwOEZC]
What if ISON fragments as it shoots around the sun. Can anyone translate the deceleration of the fragments such that they could potentially hit earth?
[/quote]

First of all, if there is something you do not understand about a paper I present, send me a message about it before you go post based on your misunderstanding.  I presented this paper before, I'm sure that's how you found it.  You have taken an aspect unrelated to what I presented about it to try to suggest that there's a risk of impact if ISON fragments.  There is no risk of impact, even if it fragments.  The fragments essentially continue to follow the orbital path of the original comet but with locations along the orbit that diverge over time - the deceleration mentioned in the paper is radial, along the velocity vector of the comet.
"The deceleration &#915; is a result of the momentum transfer between the two fragments due to their different outgassing rates and masses. [b]It is measured in radial direction only...[/b]"
"The parameters are used to constrain the fragmentation event dynamically through the time Ts when the splitting happened, [b]the radial Vr,[/b] transverse Vt and normal Vn components of the separation velocity of the secondary fragment relative to the primary one, and the deceleration parameter &#915; of the secondary relative to the primary component. [b]Vr points in the direction of the radius vector of the comet,[/b] positive along the radius vector..."
Moreover, the deceleration is nowhere near enough to produce the change in velocity required to divert ISON into an impact trajectory, even if it [i]were[/i] oriented in a direction that could that (it isn't).
"The coarse histogram distribution in Fig. 2 suggests that
long-period and new comets tend to produce fragments
subject to decelerations &#915; of 10^–4 - 10^–3 x solar gravity, while the fragments of short-period comets show on the average smaller &#915; values."
10^-3 solar gravity at ISON's perihelion when solar gravity is at its greatest is about 0.038 m/s^2.  At that rate, it would take 47.5 years of constant acceleration that high to achieve the necessary 57 km/s delta-V needed to alter ISON's orbit into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion.  Obviously, since the deceleration actually experienced by the fragments is a function of solar gravity, that deceleration will rapidly decrease as solar distance increases, plus the fragments don't have "47.5 years" to wait to be put onto an earth-collision trajectory; they'd be long gone by then, and last but not least the vector of the deceleration is along the comet's velocity vector which is about 90 degrees wrong for putting it into an earth-collision trajectory.  To put it into an earth-collision trajectory at perihelion requires the velocity vector to point at the sun.

So to answer your question in a single word, no.
[/quote]

Original Message Just a few things I feel everybody should consider, doom or not

1. First, I will post screenshots of Comet Encke’s proximity to Mercury with the same/date time nasa provides in it’s closest approach data (11/18/13). You can find that data, and most other data used here at the link immediately below.

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

These data relate to Nov 18th, 3 days prior to Encke’s perihelion or closest approach to the sun, slated for 11/21. This will be one day after November’s full moon, and Encke will have a distance of ~.025 AU from Mercury at this time.

[link to i1111.photobucket.com]

Since both ISON and Encke are estimated at approximately the same size, 3 miles, and that ISON had a recent close encounter with Mars on October 1st, I thought it would be interesting to compare what happened on Oct 1st to what may happen on the 18th. Mars actually turns out to be a good template, as you will see. ISON was ~.072 AU from Mars at it closest approach, about 3x farther than that of where Encke will be to Mercury.

mass density surface accel
Mars
.64174x10^24kg 3933kg/m3 3.69m/s2

Mercury
.3301x10^24kg 5427kg/m3 3.7m/s2

Both planets accelerate the same at the surface, but Mercury has half of Mars’ mass and is significantly more dense. This density, which WILL have an affect at the distance provided by nasa from Encke/Mercury, along with the potential for space weather, and ISON not far behind leaves some variables making it extremely hard to predict what could happen.

[link to i1111.photobucket.com]

Real quick, I want to compare right ascension (RA) and declination (dec), which is essentially a latitude and longitude in space, for each of the close encounters.

ENCKE- RA=14h 17.9m , DEC=South 12 degrees, 47' Mercury-RA=14h 19.45m, DEC=South 11 degrees, 27’

ISON- RA=9h, 36.1m, DEC= 17 degrees, 28'
Mars- RA= 9h, 37.5m, DEC= 15 degrees, 37’

There were some subtle yet significant changes to ISON’s course following the passage of Mars. From what I can gather when comparing the numbers, especially with the probable lack of stability within Encke’s nucleus due to it’s terribly short 3.3 year orbital period, along with its guaranteed variable orbit there is a possibility of a break-up event here. With ISON right behind, and set to make it’s closest approach to earth on Dec. 26th, I would want to be prepared in case it decided to bring anything with it. This comet (Encke) has already been implicated in the Tunguska Event and a multiple impact event on the far side of the moon in 1975; causing seismic disturbances on earth and perturbing our ionosphere. This comet is not harmless. Pg 467, last paragraph in link below.

[link to books.google.com]

Things to consider when hoping Mercury will have no effect on Encke-

1. It just so happens on the morning of 11/18/13 Mercury will have its Greatest Elongation (West) of the year; meaning it will be visible at sunrise and brighter than any of the other 4 elongations that occurred this year. (mag=.3). What a perfect day to be in an irregular configuration; meanwhile Encke makes it’s closest approach around 5AM UTC, 12AM eastern.

2.
Charged particles from Encke or even ISON (who’s perihelion is 7 days later on 11/28) could be accelerated as they interact with Mercury’s magnetotail. This could potentially cause a fragmentation to occur. As the article below will show you, Mars does not have this capability.

[link to onlinelibrary.wiley.com]

3.
Maybe not as important, but Mercury comes out of retrograde on Nov 10th, and on the 18th will be in a “post retrograde shadow.”

Remember, Mercury is always depicted wearing a helmet with wings and carrying some kind of staff.

[link to i1111.photobucket.com]

I will hope that the helmet isn’t symbolism for what I imagine that it is.
I challenge the reader to google image United States petroglyphs, take a look, then follow up and google image Asian petroglyphs. Essentially the same drawings, the same warnings, on 2 sides of the globe. They were trying to warn us.

Pictures (click to insert)





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