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Subject NORT'EASTER UPDATE: Central pressure dropped to 955mb and falling. New peak gust of 119 mph reported. 17 TO 22 FT WAVES. CAT 3 WIND GUSTS NOW!!!

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Original Message NWS Discussion
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...
BRUNT OF STORM WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS BOMBOGENESIS
OCCURS AND STORM TRACKS TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z WED. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE BUT WE USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW GREATER THAN 6 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS
CAPE/ISLANDS BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SNE.
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXIST PER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE AT THIS POINT. WE WIND POTENTIAL: HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AS EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION
OFFERED BY THE GFS SUGGESTS MAX WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS BUT WINDS DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY WEST OF THE CAPE.
WORST CASE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE
FORCE GUSTS OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND 50-60 MPH WINDS BACK TO BOS-PVD.

COASTAL FLOODING: THE TIDE OF CONCERN IS THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE NEAR 8 AM. BOS TIDE IS 10.4 FEET WHICH IS AN AVERAGE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 2 FT SURGE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR N FACING
SHORELINES AND PARTICULARLY AREAS ON CAPE COD FACING CAPE COD BAY.
THE ECMWF WOULD REPRESENT A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
THREAT.THINK THE
GFS IS A BIT FAST MOVING THE STORM OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND SO
ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING.

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